Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2016-09-11

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
(2009 BK2) 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 31,858
26 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 75 minutes
11,422,713 km
29.7 LD
routine about 138 times a year
(2012 SW49) 94.7 – 211.9
≈ a football pitch
No 49,227
40 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 49 minutes
39,410,855 km
103 LD
(2016 DW1) 17.6 – 39.3
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 27,797
23 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 87 minutes
45,254,364 km
118 LD
(2016 PO8) 262.2 – 586.2
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 51,175
41 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 47 minutes
46,024,786 km
120 LD
(2016 PR26) 49.5 – 110.7
≈ a football pitch
No 24,056
19 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.7 hours
12,586,525 km
32.7 LD
routine about 101 times a year
(2016 QM44) 48.4 – 108.2
≈ a football pitch
No 40,743
33 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 59 minutes
19,603,780 km
51.0 LD
(2016 RH17) 53.0 – 118.6
≈ a football pitch
No 50,782
41 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 47 minutes
2,332,632 km
6.07 LD
routine about 6 times a year
(2016 RO20) 9.7 – 21.6
≈ a city bus
No 56,342
46 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 43 minutes
942,146 km
2.45 LD
routine about 15 times a year
(2016 RC34) 13.8 – 30.9
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 21,501
17 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.9 hours
8,958,778 km
23.3 LD
routine about 138 times a year
(2016 RE34) 5.8 – 13.0
≈ a city bus
No 17,456
14 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.3 hours
456,267 km
1.19 LD
routine about 7 times a year
(2016 RN41) 1.7 – 3.7
≈ a car
No 42,198
34 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 57 minutes
23,719 km
0.06 LD — closer than the Moon
occasional about 2 times a year
(2016 SC17) 22.1 – 49.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 30,674
25 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 78 minutes
1,755,069 km
4.57 LD
routine about 9 times a year
(2018 EL4) 22.6 – 50.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 25,611
21 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.6 hours
8,077,365 km
21.0 LD
routine about 138 times a year
(2018 RV3) 65.8 – 147.2
≈ a football pitch
No 54,258
44 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 44 minutes
35,689,844 km
92.8 LD
(2019 TR6) 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 30,190
24 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 80 minutes
13,515,382 km
35.2 LD
routine about 138 times a year

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.