Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2009 BK2) | 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 31,858
26 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 75 minutes |
11,422,713 km 29.7 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2012 SW49) | 94.7 – 211.9
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 49,227
40 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 49 minutes |
39,410,855 km 103 LD |
| (2016 DW1) | 17.6 – 39.3
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 27,797
23 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 87 minutes |
45,254,364 km 118 LD |
| (2016 PO8) | 262.2 – 586.2
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 51,175
41 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 47 minutes |
46,024,786 km 120 LD |
| (2016 PR26) | 49.5 – 110.7
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 24,056
19 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.7 hours |
12,586,525 km 32.7 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
| (2016 QM44) | 48.4 – 108.2
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 40,743
33 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 59 minutes |
19,603,780 km 51.0 LD |
| (2016 RH17) | 53.0 – 118.6
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 50,782
41 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 47 minutes |
2,332,632 km 6.07 LD routine
about 6 times a year |
| (2016 RO20) | 9.7 – 21.6
≈ a city bus
|
No | 56,342
46 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 43 minutes |
942,146 km 2.45 LD routine
about 15 times a year |
| (2016 RC34) | 13.8 – 30.9
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 21,501
17 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.9 hours |
8,958,778 km 23.3 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2016 RE34) | 5.8 – 13.0
≈ a city bus
|
No | 17,456
14 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.3 hours |
456,267 km 1.19 LD routine
about 7 times a year |
| (2016 RN41) | 1.7 – 3.7
≈ a car
|
No | 42,198
34 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 57 minutes |
23,719 km 0.06 LD — closer than the Moon occasional
about 2 times a year |
| (2016 SC17) | 22.1 – 49.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 30,674
25 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 78 minutes |
1,755,069 km 4.57 LD routine
about 9 times a year |
| (2018 EL4) | 22.6 – 50.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 25,611
21 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.6 hours |
8,077,365 km 21.0 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2018 RV3) | 65.8 – 147.2
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 54,258
44 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 44 minutes |
35,689,844 km 92.8 LD |
| (2019 TR6) | 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 30,190
24 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 80 minutes |
13,515,382 km 35.2 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.