Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2018-02-07

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
505657 (2014 SR339) 535.2 – 1196.9
≈ the Burj Khalifa
Yes 64,454
52 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 37 minutes
8,069,065 km
21.0 LD
routine about 19 times a year
508912 (2004 BB) 318.1 – 711.3
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 59,807
48 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 40 minutes
17,576,958 km
45.7 LD
routine about 80 times a year
(2005 JD46) 603.3 – 1349.1
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 68,076
55 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 35 minutes
65,784,984 km
171 LD
(2017 BU93) 61.7 – 138.1
≈ a football pitch
No 48,475
39 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 50 minutes
44,325,170 km
115 LD
(2017 XG2) 99.2 – 221.8
≈ a football pitch
No 23,356
19 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.7 hours
16,770,068 km
43.6 LD
routine about 101 times a year
(2018 BZ6) 105.8 – 236.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 83,553
68 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 29 minutes
37,673,934 km
98.0 LD
(2018 CN) 13.9 – 31.2
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 71,502
58 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 34 minutes
489,694 km
1.27 LD
routine about 2 times a year
(2018 CC3) 12.1 – 27.2
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 41,234
33 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 58 minutes
2,707,021 km
7.04 LD
routine about 23 times a year
(2019 AC13) 84.1 – 187.9
≈ a football pitch
No 90,908
74 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 26 minutes
60,101,469 km
156 LD
(2019 EW1) 10.1 – 22.6
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 30,495
25 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 79 minutes
41,219,564 km
107 LD
(2018 CN41)withdrawn 24.0 – 53.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 40,308
33 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 60 minutes
7,030 km
0.02 LD — closer than the Moon
unusual about once every 5 years

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.