Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 505657 (2014 SR339) | 535.2 – 1196.9
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
Yes | 64,454
52 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 37 minutes |
8,069,065 km 21.0 LD routine
about 19 times a year |
| 508912 (2004 BB) | 318.1 – 711.3
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 59,807
48 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 40 minutes |
17,576,958 km 45.7 LD routine
about 80 times a year |
| (2005 JD46) | 603.3 – 1349.1
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 68,076
55 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 35 minutes |
65,784,984 km 171 LD |
| (2017 BU93) | 61.7 – 138.1
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 48,475
39 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 50 minutes |
44,325,170 km 115 LD |
| (2017 XG2) | 99.2 – 221.8
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 23,356
19 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.7 hours |
16,770,068 km 43.6 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
| (2018 BZ6) | 105.8 – 236.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 83,553
68 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 29 minutes |
37,673,934 km 98.0 LD |
| (2018 CN) | 13.9 – 31.2
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 71,502
58 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 34 minutes |
489,694 km 1.27 LD routine
about 2 times a year |
| (2018 CC3) | 12.1 – 27.2
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 41,234
33 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 58 minutes |
2,707,021 km 7.04 LD routine
about 23 times a year |
| (2019 AC13) | 84.1 – 187.9
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 90,908
74 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 26 minutes |
60,101,469 km 156 LD |
| (2019 EW1) | 10.1 – 22.6
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 30,495
25 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 79 minutes |
41,219,564 km 107 LD |
| (2018 CN41)withdrawn | 24.0 – 53.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 40,308
33 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 60 minutes |
7,030 km 0.02 LD — closer than the Moon unusual
about once every 5 years |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.