Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived

3200 Phaethon (1983 TB)

Designation: 3200 · NASA id: 2003200 · Potentially Hazardous

Estimated diameter: 3,536 – 7,908 meters

≈ more than a kilometre across
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 14.38) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 7.7 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

5,556,815 megatonnes – 207,090,255 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period523.7 days (1.43 years)
Eccentricity.8896722843692159 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.271464620920411 AU
Inclination22.31052728047163° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.1402777871315099 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance2.402651454709312 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.01873 AU = 2,802,297 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude265.0988060455101°
Argument of perihelion322.300168483426°
Mean anomaly / motion301.4858235833354° / .6874603479501715°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant4.510 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461200.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2026-06-25 06:18:30
Observed1983-10-27 to 2026-03-03 (15468 day arc, 8544 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 31 total.

Why does it pass Venus and Earth? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 16 of them were approaches to Venus and 15 of them were approaches to Earth.

This one’s path runs from 0.140 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 2.403 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 523.7 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0187 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2050-12-11

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2199-12-20 Earth 111658.28 14,195,928 km
36.9 LD
2189-12-15 Earth 125261.81 5,308,360 km
13.8 LD
2179-12-09 Earth 142726.80 28,507,206 km
74.2 LD
2146-12-19 Earth 112213.38 13,501,920 km
35.1 LD
2136-12-13 Earth 127443.50 8,237,307 km
21.4 LD
2115-07-01 Venus 162553.65 16,831,973 km
43.8 LD
2111-03-12 Venus 154719.41 11,301,205 km
29.4 LD
2106-11-22 Venus 147414.49 7,777,160 km
20.2 LD
2103-12-22 Earth 104453.34 25,660,873 km
66.8 LD
2102-08-03 Venus 140645.00 8,516,458 km
22.2 LD
2098-04-14 Venus 133485.94 12,943,866 km
33.7 LD
2093-12-25 Venus 126083.82 19,078,605 km
49.6 LD
2093-12-14 Earth 123244.72 2,965,611 km
7.71 LD
2060-12-18 Earth 110333.88 16,623,682 km
43.2 LD
2050-12-11 next Earth 130449.75 12,353,109 km
32.1 LD
2017-12-16 Earth 114797.86 10,312,034 km
26.8 LD
2007-12-10 Earth 134806.94 18,085,727 km
47.0 LD
1974-12-16 Earth 116516.12 8,189,345 km
21.3 LD
1964-12-08 Earth 135987.88 19,640,240 km
51.1 LD
1963-07-16 Venus 166279.58 18,736,450 km
48.7 LD
1959-03-27 Venus 159320.96 13,273,999 km
34.5 LD
1954-12-07 Venus 153306.62 8,914,423 km
23.2 LD
1950-08-18 Venus 148953.26 6,310,167 km
16.4 LD
1946-04-29 Venus 145200.58 5,409,977 km
14.1 LD
1942-01-07 Venus 141555.81 6,361,755 km
16.5 LD
1941-12-20 Earth 103108.32 28,198,004 km
73.4 LD
1937-09-18 Venus 137170.18 9,036,060 km
23.5 LD
1933-05-31 Venus 131719.14 13,433,998 km
34.9 LD
1931-12-13 Earth 124551.15 5,745,390 km
14.9 LD
1929-02-09 Venus 126743.41 17,901,349 km
46.6 LD
1924-10-21 Venus 121960.03 22,346,304 km
58.1 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T09:50:46.505609+00:00.