Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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164121 (2003 YT1)

Designation: 164121 · NASA id: 2164121 · Potentially Hazardous

Estimated diameter: 1,565 – 3,500 meters

≈ more than a kilometre across
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 16.15) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 4.4 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

204,279 megatonnes – 7,613,010 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period427.1 days (1.17 years)
Eccentricity.2920960046659441 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.109906933210648 AU
Inclination44.05782197033246° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.7857075524687869 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.434106313952509 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00304 AU = 454,498 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude38.30847047157867°
Argument of perihelion91.01206924581963°
Mean anomaly / motion20.8639533381755° / .8428964552788167°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.323 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461200.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2025-07-17 05:48:24
Observed1982-11-19 to 2025-07-16 (15580 day arc, 2597 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 35 total.

next approach: 2030-11-05

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2200-10-29 Earth 92639.52 22,864,248 km
59.5 LD
2195-04-26 Earth 81658.73 17,031,079 km
44.3 LD
2180-11-02 Earth 85709.15 4,723,184 km
12.3 LD
2175-05-01 Earth 86124.27 2,923,987 km
7.61 LD
2153-11-01 Earth 87245.14 7,676,100 km
20.0 LD
2148-04-30 Earth 85844.18 1,971,890 km
5.13 LD
2141-04-23 Earth 80168.73 27,561,499 km
71.7 LD
2126-11-06 Earth 81723.31 18,272,837 km
47.5 LD
2119-10-31 Earth 88831.23 11,855,590 km
30.8 LD
2114-05-01 Earth 86620.13 4,789,899 km
12.5 LD
2107-04-25 Earth 81033.75 21,023,583 km
54.7 LD
2085-11-02 Earth 84462.38 6,001,944 km
15.6 LD
2080-05-04 Earth 93441.27 25,265,125 km
65.7 LD
2078-10-28 Earth 91604.99 19,663,520 km
51.2 LD
2073-04-29 Earth 85772.34 1,694,493 km
4.41 LD
2066-04-26 Earth 82978.20 10,094,646 km
26.3 LD
2059-04-23 Earth 80595.26 24,085,478 km
62.7 LD
2030-11-05 next Earth 81149.14 22,202,160 km
57.8 LD
2023-11-03 Earth 83703.60 8,879,791 km
23.1 LD
2016-10-31 Earth 86611.59 5,201,136 km
13.5 LD
2011-05-05 Earth 93418.58 25,110,335 km
65.3 LD
2009-10-28 Earth 90978.26 17,838,855 km
46.4 LD
2004-04-30 Earth 88479.06 10,962,870 km
28.5 LD
1997-04-28 Earth 84816.04 2,006,782 km
5.22 LD
1990-04-23 Earth 80403.96 25,589,664 km
66.6 LD
1968-11-02 Earth 83778.52 8,413,645 km
21.9 LD
1963-05-06 Earth 95177.63 29,716,084 km
77.3 LD
1961-10-29 Earth 89869.34 14,792,324 km
38.5 LD
1956-04-30 Earth 87455.94 7,712,191 km
20.1 LD
1949-04-25 Earth 82516.72 12,228,091 km
31.8 LD
1927-11-06 Earth 80393.61 27,678,999 km
72.0 LD
1920-11-02 Earth 84143.90 7,156,295 km
18.6 LD
1913-10-29 Earth 89474.87 13,624,005 km
35.4 LD
1908-04-30 Earth 88493.88 10,952,496 km
28.5 LD
1901-04-26 Earth 83552.70 7,348,389 km
19.1 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T23:00:46.325928+00:00.