Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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418896 (2009 AK15)

Designation: 418896 · NASA id: 2418896

Estimated diameter: 338 – 755 meters

≈ the Burj Khalifa
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 19.48) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 10.5 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

705.1 megatonnes – 26,278 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period547.6 days (1.50 years)
Eccentricity.4288500769129997 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.309980468239344 AU
Inclination13.83443734782822° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.7481952436803738 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.871765692798314 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.20842 AU = 31,178,889 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude186.7716482762865°
Argument of perihelion6.510346444835545°
Mean anomaly / motion179.8347748355557° / .6573654026831506°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant4.852 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461200.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2024-10-01 07:02:57
Observed2009-01-06 to 2024-10-01 (5747 day arc, 313 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 74 total.

Why does it pass Earth and Venus? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 55 of them were approaches to Earth and 19 of them were approaches to Venus.

This one’s path runs from 0.748 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.872 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 547.6 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.2084 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2027-01-28

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2199-03-19 Earth 49674.23 35,818,134 km
93.2 LD
2196-04-04 Venus 44917.90 12,371,110 km
32.2 LD
2196-04-02 Earth 50765.11 37,729,953 km
98.2 LD
2193-07-28 Earth 29860.30 72,343,148 km
188 LD
2193-04-15 Earth 50459.46 38,859,198 km
101 LD
2190-04-29 Earth 48689.86 39,473,386 km
103 LD
2187-05-13 Earth 45650.88 39,303,601 km
102 LD
2185-10-24 Venus 42503.69 4,578,716 km
11.9 LD
2184-05-28 Earth 42101.64 38,369,994 km
99.8 LD
2181-06-13 Earth 40501.17 36,974,314 km
96.2 LD
2178-06-26 Earth 45013.76 36,361,349 km
94.6 LD
2175-07-03 Earth 52351.12 38,397,262 km
99.9 LD
2175-05-11 Venus 42501.21 4,172,479 km
10.9 LD
2172-07-08 Earth 59719.14 42,839,936 km
111 LD
2169-07-12 Earth 67386.71 49,383,861 km
128 LD
2166-07-17 Earth 75326.55 57,488,373 km
150 LD
2164-11-25 Venus 42548.25 4,053,638 km
10.5 LD
2163-07-21 Earth 82933.80 66,075,612 km
172 LD
2154-06-11 Venus 42536.13 4,082,662 km
10.6 LD
2143-12-24 Venus 42666.98 5,954,321 km
15.5 LD
2133-06-30 Venus 48661.92 18,949,200 km
49.3 LD
2099-02-05 Venus 48175.75 15,077,808 km
39.2 LD
2088-08-12 Venus 42557.82 4,029,800 km
10.5 LD
2083-12-28 Earth 90669.27 71,670,053 km
186 LD
2080-12-29 Earth 86118.83 66,193,446 km
172 LD
2078-02-15 Venus 48912.12 19,525,226 km
50.8 LD
2078-01-01 Earth 81580.07 60,830,209 km
158 LD
2075-01-03 Earth 78170.93 56,927,513 km
148 LD
2072-01-05 Earth 74745.26 53,107,234 km
138 LD
2069-01-06 Earth 71753.34 49,884,982 km
130 LD
2066-01-08 Earth 68979.19 46,982,140 km
122 LD
2063-01-09 Earth 66561.54 44,579,799 km
116 LD
2060-01-11 Earth 64151.50 42,266,467 km
110 LD
2057-01-12 Earth 62245.54 40,542,762 km
105 LD
2054-03-05 Venus 44410.59 8,396,925 km
21.8 LD
2054-01-13 Earth 60495.15 39,055,701 km
102 LD
2051-01-16 Earth 57581.42 36,736,066 km
95.6 LD
2048-01-19 Earth 54891.68 34,824,025 km
90.6 LD
2045-01-20 Earth 52815.59 33,565,115 km
87.3 LD
2043-09-02 Venus 50858.71 22,375,936 km
58.2 LD
2042-01-22 Earth 51249.74 32,726,300 km
85.1 LD
2039-01-24 Earth 50276.83 32,282,344 km
84.0 LD
2036-01-26 Earth 49410.53 31,913,002 km
83.0 LD
2033-01-26 Earth 48910.43 31,733,905 km
82.6 LD
2030-01-27 Earth 48541.90 31,620,378 km
82.3 LD
2027-01-28 next Earth 48027.03 31,473,600 km
81.9 LD
2024-01-30 Earth 47576.19 31,355,283 km
81.6 LD
2021-01-29 Earth 47381.72 31,319,006 km
81.5 LD
2019-09-07 Venus 48349.58 19,087,145 km
49.7 LD
2018-01-29 Earth 47403.05 31,331,788 km
81.5 LD
2015-01-29 Earth 47742.04 31,424,122 km
81.7 LD
2012-01-28 Earth 48127.00 31,534,281 km
82.0 LD
2009-01-26 Earth 48856.40 31,768,051 km
82.6 LD
2006-03-13 Venus 46414.92 12,108,397 km
31.5 LD
2006-01-24 Earth 49752.13 32,122,304 km
83.6 LD
2003-01-24 Earth 50062.20 32,247,741 km
83.9 LD
2000-01-24 Earth 50409.31 32,401,108 km
84.3 LD
1997-01-22 Earth 51134.42 32,761,639 km
85.2 LD
1994-01-21 Earth 52126.85 33,286,205 km
86.6 LD
1991-01-19 Earth 53562.04 34,110,890 km
88.7 LD
1988-01-18 Earth 55073.05 35,038,924 km
91.2 LD
1985-01-15 Earth 57129.42 36,467,034 km
94.9 LD
1982-02-28 Venus 46656.80 16,655,333 km
43.3 LD
1982-01-14 Earth 59409.22 38,209,061 km
99.4 LD
1979-01-11 Earth 63042.52 41,380,398 km
108 LD
1976-01-09 Earth 66772.91 44,909,689 km
117 LD
1973-01-05 Earth 71106.43 49,324,315 km
128 LD
1970-01-03 Earth 75616.81 54,138,796 km
141 LD
1968-08-20 Venus 43799.51 11,066,784 km
28.8 LD
1966-12-31 Earth 81220.61 60,510,936 km
157 LD
1963-12-28 Earth 87463.59 67,901,090 km
177 LD
1955-01-31 Venus 49857.62 21,549,306 km
56.1 LD
1924-12-28 Venus 46381.87 11,984,628 km
31.2 LD
1911-06-11 Venus 42914.24 4,918,910 km
12.8 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T21:00:43.497130+00:00.