Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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423100 (2004 BX1)

Designation: 423100 · NASA id: 2423100

Estimated diameter: 543 – 1,214 meters

≈ the Burj Khalifa
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 18.45) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 10.4 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

12,534 megatonnes – 467,130 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period1,354.9 days (3.71 years)
Eccentricity.8424522463975005 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis2.396281922645249 AU
Inclination20.15321977730387° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.3775288339110375 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance4.415035011379461 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.29518 AU = 44,159,048 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude92.24922423465765°
Argument of perihelion169.601088445273°
Mean anomaly / motion334.7037334557645° / .2657034580584271°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant2.858 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461200.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2023-03-01 06:46:46
Observed2004-01-17 to 2019-01-28 (5490 day arc, 99 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 47 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Juptr and Merc? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 25 of them were approaches to Earth, 13 of them were approaches to Juptr and 9 of them were approaches to Merc.

This one’s path runs from 0.378 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 4.415 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 1354.9 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.2952 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2026-10-20

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2197-02-16 Earth 122944.77 58,613,507 km
152 LD
2191-04-03 Juptr 31901.98 141,202,883 km
367 LD
2182-05-08 Merc 108972.20 10,484,132 km
27.3 LD
2178-10-01 Earth 92085.68 58,720,352 km
153 LD
2171-04-10 Merc 110924.75 11,238,860 km
29.2 LD
2171-02-22 Earth 104060.99 50,653,751 km
132 LD
2160-03-20 Merc 135352.88 8,194,521 km
21.3 LD
2160-02-04 Earth 146966.46 74,240,073 km
193 LD
2155-06-06 Juptr 49181.69 291,908,711 km
759 LD
2149-02-06 Merc 108093.67 13,702,575 km
35.6 LD
2143-10-25 Juptr 32400.82 123,241,850 km
321 LD
2141-09-30 Earth 95202.27 55,591,076 km
145 LD
2141-08-25 Merc 105333.06 7,194,020 km
18.7 LD
2131-12-03 Juptr 31552.79 138,957,026 km
361 LD
2126-10-18 Earth 128044.18 62,018,607 km
161 LD
2119-03-01 Earth 86890.21 54,590,205 km
142 LD
2115-09-03 Earth 81320.03 74,742,524 km
194 LD
2108-02-10 Earth 129759.23 57,039,997 km
148 LD
2096-02-02 Juptr 49775.87 296,741,941 km
772 LD
2084-06-25 Juptr 32539.89 125,351,354 km
326 LD
2082-03-04 Earth 82907.50 54,728,622 km
142 LD
2078-07-26 Merc 137853.74 10,089,302 km
26.2 LD
2072-08-01 Juptr 31384.76 139,356,734 km
363 LD
2063-10-04 Earth 103537.32 51,366,076 km
134 LD
2056-02-21 Earth 98815.93 45,582,217 km
119 LD
2045-02-02 Earth 141212.63 64,011,165 km
167 LD
2036-10-04 Juptr 49916.01 296,949,051 km
773 LD
2026-10-20 next Earth 136322.44 65,943,991 km
172 LD
2025-02-26 Juptr 32628.73 126,659,431 km
329 LD
2019-02-04 Earth 141440.15 65,673,640 km
171 LD
2013-04-01 Juptr 31048.16 136,872,865 km
356 LD
2011-10-22 Earth 141097.40 68,033,183 km
177 LD
2004-03-02 Earth 78427.55 55,957,358 km
146 LD
2000-08-29 Earth 79979.69 73,752,525 km
192 LD
1996-12-01 Merc 128909.62 3,985,446 km
10.4 LD
1993-02-04 Earth 133138.70 53,700,419 km
140 LD
1965-10-28 Juptr 32897.92 130,419,718 km
339 LD
1963-09-09 Earth 76623.37 63,435,083 km
165 LD
1953-11-29 Juptr 30790.89 135,706,038 km
353 LD
1948-10-05 Earth 108880.98 45,452,555 km
118 LD
1941-02-15 Earth 105981.15 36,357,917 km
94.6 LD
1930-03-12 Merc 113145.40 8,400,105 km
21.9 LD
1930-01-27 Earth 150688.86 67,840,380 km
176 LD
1919-02-17 Merc 139500.00 5,508,400 km
14.3 LD
1911-10-19 Earth 138411.68 62,399,380 km
162 LD
1906-06-30 Juptr 33146.17 133,502,734 km
347 LD
1904-02-15 Earth 109550.41 35,537,729 km
92.4 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-17T22:20:37.206742+00:00.