← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived
Designation: 452807 · NASA id: 2452807
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 132 – 295 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
12.5 megatonnes – 467.5 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 450.4 days (1.23 years) |
| Eccentricity | .2726904499784147 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.149915836489343 AU |
| Inclination | 3.553891312890827° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .8363447695997587 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.463486903378927 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01388 AU = 2,076,179 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 71.69230604299057° |
| Argument of perihelion | 87.81031394380537° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 139.238130871104° / .7992911259840133°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.428 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461200.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2022-12-20 14:10:09 |
| Observed | 2006-05-28 to 2021-10-03 (5607 day arc, 143 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 145 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 122 of them were approaches to Earth, 16 of them were approaches to Mars and 7 of them were approaches to Venus.
This one’s path runs from 0.836 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.463 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 450.4 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0139 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2026-10-20
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2199-12-10 | Earth | 45678.21 | 25,367,340 km 66.0 LD |
| 2190-05-21 | Earth | 27444.39 | 1,732,995 km 4.51 LD |
| 2189-10-12 | Earth | 27559.95 | 59,819,060 km 156 LD |
| 2185-06-10 | Earth | 63498.40 | 51,418,255 km 134 LD |
| 2184-09-13 | Earth | 30687.22 | 68,826,963 km 179 LD |
| 2179-08-17 | Earth | 29501.27 | 66,632,742 km 173 LD |
| 2178-12-08 | Earth | 49789.72 | 31,081,393 km 80.9 LD |
| 2174-07-15 | Earth | 23480.60 | 52,465,808 km 136 LD |
| 2174-01-23 | Earth | 20111.26 | 19,345,465 km 50.3 LD |
| 2171-02-24 | Mars | 20333.32 | 11,862,310 km 30.9 LD |
| 2169-05-12 | Earth | 20667.24 | 10,561,319 km 27.5 LD |
| 2168-10-19 | Earth | 26151.16 | 56,472,991 km 147 LD |
| 2167-03-09 | Mars | 23072.40 | 4,888,672 km 12.7 LD |
| 2164-06-06 | Earth | 55523.02 | 40,128,527 km 104 LD |
| 2163-09-20 | Earth | 30370.71 | 67,798,256 km 176 LD |
| 2158-08-21 | Earth | 30009.06 | 67,567,383 km 176 LD |
| 2158-01-18 | Venus | 4983.21 | 21,391,872 km 55.7 LD |
| 2157-12-05 | Earth | 56080.29 | 39,919,728 km 104 LD |
| 2156-10-29 | Venus | 5334.34 | 19,289,271 km 50.2 LD |
| 2155-08-09 | Venus | 5398.83 | 18,060,709 km 47.0 LD |
| 2154-05-19 | Venus | 5398.79 | 17,744,774 km 46.2 LD |
| 2153-07-17 | Earth | 23987.75 | 53,317,744 km 139 LD |
| 2153-02-27 | Venus | 5411.79 | 18,347,197 km 47.7 LD |
| 2153-01-17 | Earth | 19247.48 | 17,894,759 km 46.6 LD |
| 2151-12-08 | Venus | 5309.46 | 19,712,628 km 51.3 LD |
| 2150-09-18 | Venus | 4897.66 | 21,770,316 km 56.6 LD |
| 2148-05-15 | Earth | 21857.17 | 8,550,772 km 22.2 LD |
| 2147-10-18 | Earth | 26461.46 | 57,128,881 km 149 LD |
| 2143-06-06 | Earth | 56049.36 | 40,940,722 km 107 LD |
| 2142-09-19 | Earth | 30464.43 | 67,972,795 km 177 LD |
| 2137-08-24 | Earth | 30342.02 | 68,594,127 km 178 LD |
| 2136-12-02 | Earth | 61648.80 | 47,558,626 km 124 LD |
| 2132-07-28 | Earth | 26695.81 | 59,940,146 km 156 LD |
| 2131-12-20 | Earth | 27375.90 | 2,758,843 km 7.18 LD |
| 2127-11-29 | Mars | 20895.90 | 10,477,326 km 27.3 LD |
| 2127-06-18 | Earth | 16326.22 | 38,434,599 km 100.0 LD |
| 2127-03-13 | Earth | 23721.10 | 24,258,487 km 63.1 LD |
| 2126-11-11 | Earth | 20456.07 | 43,584,892 km 113 LD |
| 2123-12-14 | Mars | 20959.49 | 9,132,105 km 23.8 LD |
| 2122-05-25 | Earth | 32600.80 | 7,488,079 km 19.5 LD |
| 2121-10-07 | Earth | 28310.67 | 61,883,913 km 161 LD |
| 2117-06-12 | Earth | 69533.13 | 60,018,818 km 156 LD |
| 2116-09-08 | Earth | 30794.95 | 69,164,481 km 180 LD |
| 2115-11-24 | Earth | 81344.31 | 74,715,496 km 194 LD |
| 2111-08-10 | Earth | 28791.71 | 64,754,338 km 168 LD |
| 2110-12-11 | Earth | 42038.59 | 20,368,869 km 53.0 LD |
| 2106-07-05 | Earth | 21110.49 | 47,085,698 km 122 LD |
| 2106-02-16 | Earth | 23213.57 | 23,469,696 km 61.1 LD |
| 2105-11-29 | Earth | 14614.74 | 33,933,871 km 88.3 LD |
| 2101-05-21 | Earth | 27640.82 | 1,932,754 km 5.03 LD |
| 2100-10-11 | Earth | 27562.84 | 59,935,658 km 156 LD |
| 2096-06-10 | Earth | 66906.80 | 56,358,924 km 147 LD |
| 2095-09-09 | Earth | 30688.78 | 68,913,095 km 179 LD |
| 2090-08-09 | Earth | 28722.38 | 64,615,568 km 168 LD |
| 2089-12-10 | Earth | 41620.65 | 19,826,935 km 51.6 LD |
| 2085-06-30 | Earth | 20318.22 | 45,481,337 km 118 LD |
| 2085-02-20 | Earth | 23636.05 | 24,002,420 km 62.4 LD |
| 2084-11-22 | Earth | 16450.02 | 36,421,087 km 94.7 LD |
| 2084-08-09 | Mars | 20052.80 | 12,950,417 km 33.7 LD |
| 2080-08-25 | Mars | 25281.71 | 5,409,113 km 14.1 LD |
| 2080-05-22 | Earth | 31165.90 | 5,450,398 km 14.2 LD |
| 2079-10-06 | Earth | 28100.05 | 61,321,204 km 160 LD |
| 2075-06-14 | Earth | 76546.64 | 69,896,682 km 182 LD |
| 2074-08-31 | Earth | 30592.34 | 68,754,822 km 179 LD |
| 2073-11-26 | Earth | 71365.33 | 60,827,975 km 158 LD |
| 2069-07-25 | Earth | 26202.30 | 58,255,413 km 152 LD |
| 2068-12-21 | Earth | 23527.56 | 6,324,549 km 16.5 LD |
| 2064-05-14 | Earth | 21769.17 | 8,783,682 km 22.9 LD |
| 2063-10-15 | Earth | 26569.44 | 57,250,387 km 149 LD |
| 2059-06-11 | Earth | 67973.98 | 57,780,082 km 150 LD |
| 2058-09-07 | Earth | 30638.26 | 68,673,823 km 179 LD |
| 2057-11-22 | Earth | 80125.65 | 72,858,505 km 190 LD |
| 2053-08-01 | Earth | 27454.68 | 61,365,046 km 160 LD |
| 2052-12-15 | Earth | 31361.68 | 5,674,238 km 14.8 LD |
| 2048-11-29 | Mars | 21003.36 | 9,718,266 km 25.3 LD |
| 2048-06-07 | Earth | 13720.69 | 34,714,146 km 90.3 LD |
| 2048-03-20 | Earth | 23175.42 | 23,660,752 km 61.6 LD |
| 2047-11-03 | Earth | 21825.39 | 46,575,127 km 121 LD |
| 2044-12-06 | Mars | 22366.37 | 5,423,261 km 14.1 LD |
| 2043-05-29 | Earth | 42947.49 | 22,229,297 km 57.8 LD |
| 2042-09-26 | Earth | 29450.85 | 65,163,665 km 170 LD |
| 2037-08-27 | Earth | 30500.97 | 68,805,365 km 179 LD |
| 2036-11-28 | Earth | 66628.95 | 54,387,404 km 141 LD |
| 2032-07-25 | Earth | 26379.44 | 58,924,632 km 153 LD |
| 2031-12-20 | Earth | 24989.25 | 4,387,136 km 11.4 LD |
| 2027-04-29 | Earth | 18667.05 | 16,102,022 km 41.9 LD |
| 2026-10-20 next | Earth | 25315.90 | 54,322,062 km 141 LD |
| 2022-06-06 | Earth | 59630.40 | 45,865,303 km 119 LD |
| 2021-09-13 | Earth | 30528.83 | 68,171,992 km 177 LD |
| 2016-08-10 | Earth | 29003.30 | 65,072,115 km 169 LD |
| 2015-12-09 | Earth | 43616.66 | 22,439,670 km 58.4 LD |
| 2011-06-27 | Earth | 19412.51 | 43,415,833 km 113 LD |
| 2011-02-27 | Earth | 24004.91 | 24,518,548 km 63.8 LD |
| 2010-11-16 | Earth | 18123.91 | 39,210,055 km 102 LD |
| 2009-05-10 | Mars | 19929.40 | 13,454,628 km 35.0 LD |
| 2006-05-27 | Earth | 37901.59 | 14,968,453 km 38.9 LD |
| 2005-09-30 | Earth | 29021.57 | 63,646,772 km 166 LD |
| 2005-05-29 | Mars | 28303.31 | 11,005,204 km 28.6 LD |
| 2000-08-26 | Earth | 30474.24 | 68,426,987 km 178 LD |
| 1999-11-29 | Earth | 64882.05 | 51,852,455 km 135 LD |
| 1995-07-19 | Earth | 24913.30 | 55,255,967 km 144 LD |
| 1995-01-03 | Earth | 18727.01 | 14,408,468 km 37.5 LD |
| 1990-05-18 | Earth | 25189.50 | 4,078,811 km 10.6 LD |
| 1989-10-12 | Earth | 27147.90 | 58,941,122 km 153 LD |
| 1985-06-09 | Earth | 66177.55 | 55,296,389 km 144 LD |
| 1984-09-08 | Earth | 30662.13 | 68,820,966 km 179 LD |
| 1979-08-07 | Earth | 28456.72 | 63,888,175 km 166 LD |
| 1978-12-11 | Earth | 39095.65 | 16,262,604 km 42.3 LD |
| 1974-06-22 | Earth | 18055.07 | 40,891,054 km 106 LD |
| 1974-03-05 | Earth | 24076.86 | 24,558,946 km 63.9 LD |
| 1973-11-11 | Earth | 19449.27 | 41,732,959 km 109 LD |
| 1973-09-16 | Mars | 23516.45 | 7,114,355 km 18.5 LD |
| 1969-09-20 | Mars | 20876.56 | 8,314,881 km 21.6 LD |
| 1969-05-28 | Earth | 40528.90 | 18,753,446 km 48.8 LD |
| 1968-09-28 | Earth | 29227.35 | 64,301,183 km 167 LD |
| 1963-08-24 | Earth | 30206.74 | 67,794,165 km 176 LD |
| 1962-12-01 | Earth | 60642.09 | 46,229,709 km 120 LD |
| 1958-07-11 | Earth | 22816.86 | 50,393,102 km 131 LD |
| 1958-01-31 | Earth | 21475.21 | 21,283,932 km 55.4 LD |
| 1953-05-27 | Earth | 38164.59 | 15,605,419 km 40.6 LD |
| 1952-09-28 | Earth | 28840.01 | 63,203,121 km 164 LD |
| 1947-08-15 | Earth | 29284.19 | 65,318,102 km 170 LD |
| 1946-12-06 | Earth | 48153.44 | 29,120,334 km 75.8 LD |
| 1942-03-30 | Earth | 22025.40 | 22,468,656 km 58.5 LD |
| 1941-10-29 | Earth | 22904.14 | 48,550,188 km 126 LD |
| 1941-09-28 | Mars | 26091.36 | 10,071,160 km 26.2 LD |
| 1937-09-19 | Mars | 23433.85 | 4,343,462 km 11.3 LD |
| 1937-06-09 | Earth | 66358.49 | 55,879,843 km 145 LD |
| 1936-09-06 | Earth | 30284.19 | 67,535,719 km 176 LD |
| 1935-11-23 | Earth | 78023.43 | 70,372,095 km 183 LD |
| 1931-07-17 | Earth | 24147.51 | 53,084,045 km 138 LD |
| 1931-01-13 | Earth | 18974.15 | 17,457,456 km 45.4 LD |
| 1926-05-30 | Earth | 43216.84 | 23,004,398 km 59.8 LD |
| 1925-09-24 | Earth | 29280.07 | 64,244,792 km 167 LD |
| 1920-08-03 | Earth | 27659.77 | 61,470,087 km 160 LD |
| 1919-12-13 | Earth | 33880.22 | 9,340,769 km 24.3 LD |
| 1915-05-15 | Earth | 22174.64 | 7,872,407 km 20.5 LD |
| 1914-10-13 | Earth | 26474.17 | 56,948,951 km 148 LD |
| 1913-07-10 | Mars | 24137.42 | 7,716,620 km 20.1 LD |
| 1910-06-15 | Earth | 78082.38 | 72,483,276 km 189 LD |
| 1909-08-28 | Earth | 30186.87 | 67,649,424 km 176 LD |
| 1909-07-02 | Mars | 24147.99 | 4,813,495 km 12.5 LD |
| 1908-11-27 | Earth | 66858.02 | 55,053,919 km 143 LD |
| 1904-07-08 | Earth | 22320.57 | 49,145,209 km 128 LD |
| 1904-02-04 | Earth | 21996.37 | 22,004,125 km 57.2 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T20:55:26.509038+00:00.