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Designation: 1999 SG10 · NASA id: 3022970
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 187 – 419 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
259.3 megatonnes – 9,663 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 640.3 days (1.75 years) |
| Eccentricity | .6133638358625966 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.453925561347351 AU |
| Inclination | 23.56396506127448° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .5621402019806609 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 2.345710920714042 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.02892 AU = 4,326,341 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 13.36849735031199° |
| Argument of perihelion | 103.42957041° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 292.5263503975454° / .5621999673214201°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 4.344 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-03-01 05:59:02 |
| Observed | 1999-09-30 to 2020-10-20 (7691 day arc, 123 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 81 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 66 of them were approaches to Earth and 15 of them were approaches to Venus.
This one’s path runs from 0.562 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 2.346 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 640.3 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0289 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2027-10-23
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2197-09-20 | Earth | 124075.59 | 68,722,715 km 179 LD |
| 2196-03-01 | Earth | 67425.69 | 61,501,860 km 160 LD |
| 2194-06-04 | Venus | 100600.13 | 19,608,985 km 51.0 LD |
| 2190-09-22 | Earth | 120524.12 | 63,607,259 km 165 LD |
| 2189-03-06 | Earth | 65951.35 | 58,269,511 km 152 LD |
| 2183-12-06 | Venus | 68467.29 | 16,952,036 km 44.1 LD |
| 2183-09-24 | Earth | 116933.95 | 58,580,520 km 152 LD |
| 2182-03-11 | Earth | 64805.25 | 55,357,886 km 144 LD |
| 2176-09-24 | Earth | 115042.04 | 55,767,677 km 145 LD |
| 2175-03-14 | Earth | 64309.94 | 53,673,768 km 140 LD |
| 2169-09-25 | Earth | 113354.21 | 53,323,873 km 139 LD |
| 2168-03-15 | Earth | 63878.16 | 52,160,523 km 136 LD |
| 2162-09-26 | Earth | 112317.98 | 51,722,550 km 135 LD |
| 2161-03-16 | Earth | 63617.74 | 51,168,152 km 133 LD |
| 2161-03-11 | Venus | 86473.12 | 4,963,385 km 12.9 LD |
| 2155-09-28 | Earth | 108739.78 | 46,550,673 km 121 LD |
| 2154-03-23 | Earth | 63319.00 | 46,216,490 km 120 LD |
| 2148-09-29 | Earth | 104973.48 | 41,050,412 km 107 LD |
| 2147-03-28 | Earth | 63764.70 | 42,086,595 km 109 LD |
| 2141-09-30 | Earth | 102175.20 | 36,894,624 km 96.0 LD |
| 2140-03-30 | Earth | 64595.88 | 39,034,299 km 102 LD |
| 2134-10-01 | Earth | 99942.20 | 33,570,811 km 87.3 LD |
| 2133-04-01 | Earth | 65211.58 | 36,865,420 km 95.9 LD |
| 2127-12-18 | Venus | 78886.03 | 4,004,892 km 10.4 LD |
| 2127-10-02 | Earth | 98716.87 | 31,584,372 km 82.2 LD |
| 2126-04-01 | Earth | 65139.15 | 36,979,282 km 96.2 LD |
| 2120-09-29 | Earth | 103055.28 | 38,119,325 km 99.2 LD |
| 2119-03-27 | Earth | 63599.48 | 42,253,512 km 110 LD |
| 2113-09-27 | Earth | 108092.37 | 45,478,178 km 118 LD |
| 2112-03-20 | Earth | 63001.27 | 47,990,982 km 125 LD |
| 2106-09-25 | Earth | 113545.77 | 53,373,889 km 139 LD |
| 2105-03-13 | Earth | 63841.74 | 54,028,080 km 141 LD |
| 2105-03-07 | Venus | 66270.09 | 19,925,455 km 51.8 LD |
| 2099-09-21 | Earth | 120132.74 | 62,889,277 km 164 LD |
| 2098-03-01 | Earth | 66474.91 | 60,848,947 km 158 LD |
| 2092-11-29 | Venus | 97950.06 | 16,885,508 km 43.9 LD |
| 2092-09-17 | Earth | 127343.23 | 73,005,922 km 190 LD |
| 2091-02-20 | Earth | 69576.36 | 66,460,847 km 173 LD |
| 2084-02-11 | Earth | 72055.75 | 70,497,264 km 183 LD |
| 2077-02-02 | Earth | 73810.29 | 73,669,484 km 192 LD |
| 2070-02-15 | Venus | 73047.25 | 10,707,696 km 27.9 LD |
| 2057-11-06 | Venus | 101801.54 | 20,811,889 km 54.1 LD |
| 2048-12-21 | Earth | 64666.99 | 74,636,527 km 194 LD |
| 2041-12-08 | Earth | 56817.31 | 70,354,634 km 183 LD |
| 2041-10-20 | Earth | 46161.95 | 73,086,926 km 190 LD |
| 2040-05-12 | Earth | 121927.84 | 68,521,560 km 178 LD |
| 2035-01-21 | Venus | 71776.04 | 12,261,616 km 31.9 LD |
| 2034-10-24 | Earth | 47663.76 | 61,824,044 km 161 LD |
| 2033-05-08 | Earth | 114454.71 | 58,079,628 km 151 LD |
| 2027-10-23 next | Earth | 52715.20 | 48,562,014 km 126 LD |
| 2026-05-04 | Earth | 106087.51 | 46,498,997 km 121 LD |
| 2022-10-13 | Venus | 101984.36 | 20,982,701 km 54.6 LD |
| 2020-10-19 | Earth | 58321.70 | 36,744,663 km 95.6 LD |
| 2019-04-30 | Earth | 99057.70 | 36,909,977 km 96.0 LD |
| 2013-10-17 | Earth | 63452.20 | 26,999,853 km 70.2 LD |
| 2012-04-26 | Earth | 93567.73 | 29,794,919 km 77.5 LD |
| 2006-10-15 | Earth | 67988.98 | 19,027,001 km 49.5 LD |
| 2005-04-24 | Earth | 89124.15 | 24,735,515 km 64.3 LD |
| 2000-01-03 | Venus | 84856.00 | 3,668,040 km 9.54 LD |
| 1999-10-14 | Earth | 71108.75 | 13,641,545 km 35.5 LD |
| 1998-04-23 | Earth | 87391.31 | 23,046,404 km 60.0 LD |
| 1992-10-14 | Earth | 68305.79 | 18,425,307 km 47.9 LD |
| 1991-04-25 | Earth | 90425.29 | 26,045,516 km 67.8 LD |
| 1985-10-17 | Earth | 64233.95 | 25,569,146 km 66.5 LD |
| 1984-04-27 | Earth | 94620.25 | 31,010,280 km 80.7 LD |
| 1978-10-19 | Earth | 59762.54 | 33,936,629 km 88.3 LD |
| 1977-05-01 | Earth | 100148.89 | 38,174,740 km 99.3 LD |
| 1971-10-22 | Earth | 54619.87 | 44,203,790 km 115 LD |
| 1970-05-05 | Earth | 106883.95 | 47,378,578 km 123 LD |
| 1966-10-19 | Venus | 97694.43 | 16,561,910 km 43.1 LD |
| 1964-10-24 | Earth | 49355.60 | 56,363,471 km 147 LD |
| 1963-05-09 | Earth | 114787.88 | 58,407,787 km 152 LD |
| 1957-12-03 | Earth | 54690.95 | 68,646,685 km 179 LD |
| 1957-10-23 | Earth | 45672.87 | 70,394,386 km 183 LD |
| 1956-05-13 | Earth | 123548.61 | 70,450,589 km 183 LD |
| 1956-04-27 | Venus | 77275.03 | 5,933,286 km 15.4 LD |
| 1950-12-16 | Earth | 62432.50 | 73,286,200 km 191 LD |
| 1923-02-13 | Venus | 98103.11 | 17,023,425 km 44.3 LD |
| 1912-08-21 | Venus | 73923.08 | 9,699,292 km 25.2 LD |
| 1909-02-06 | Earth | 72678.95 | 72,509,146 km 189 LD |
| 1902-02-13 | Earth | 70901.54 | 69,933,363 km 182 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-08T14:03:19.098589+00:00.