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Designation: 2004 RY109 · NASA id: 3251889
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 399 – 891 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
1,254 megatonnes – 46,716 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 758.5 days (2.08 years) |
| Eccentricity | .4249677606809685 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.627656033751501 AU |
| Inclination | 26.13203946100392° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .9359546939292587 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 2.319357373573743 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.04750 AU = 7,106,213 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 352.3448088789826° |
| Argument of perihelion | 306.8595712084265° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 101.6551538034324° / .4746353987539325°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 4.106 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-14 22:18:10 |
| Observed | 2004-09-11 to 2020-01-28 (5617 day arc, 142 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 35 total.
next approach: 2031-04-29
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2195-09-28 | Earth | 83523.03 | 48,844,322 km 127 LD |
| 2193-09-04 | Earth | 54168.27 | 24,765,253 km 64.4 LD |
| 2193-04-25 | Earth | 46049.54 | 72,170,529 km 188 LD |
| 2168-09-26 | Earth | 81190.41 | 44,328,145 km 115 LD |
| 2166-09-03 | Earth | 53184.75 | 29,684,198 km 77.2 LD |
| 2166-04-27 | Earth | 46222.14 | 70,479,879 km 183 LD |
| 2141-09-25 | Earth | 77744.46 | 37,925,007 km 98.7 LD |
| 2139-08-31 | Earth | 52275.90 | 36,564,310 km 95.1 LD |
| 2139-04-28 | Earth | 46692.66 | 68,554,735 km 178 LD |
| 2114-09-22 | Earth | 73889.35 | 30,352,174 km 79.0 LD |
| 2112-08-27 | Earth | 51757.23 | 43,779,983 km 114 LD |
| 2112-04-29 | Earth | 47577.03 | 66,915,015 km 174 LD |
| 2087-09-20 | Earth | 70905.38 | 24,418,569 km 63.5 LD |
| 2085-08-22 | Earth | 51780.96 | 50,083,515 km 130 LD |
| 2085-04-29 | Earth | 48802.70 | 65,797,682 km 171 LD |
| 2060-09-18 | Earth | 69433.25 | 21,363,595 km 55.6 LD |
| 2058-08-21 | Earth | 51791.09 | 52,254,951 km 136 LD |
| 2058-04-29 | Earth | 49349.52 | 65,386,459 km 170 LD |
| 2033-09-19 | Earth | 70661.68 | 23,716,553 km 61.7 LD |
| 2031-08-23 | Earth | 51584.81 | 49,977,953 km 130 LD |
| 2031-04-29 next | Earth | 48887.82 | 65,315,976 km 170 LD |
| 2006-09-21 | Earth | 73880.70 | 30,064,731 km 78.2 LD |
| 2004-08-26 | Earth | 51501.64 | 43,102,377 km 112 LD |
| 2004-04-27 | Earth | 47682.38 | 66,178,736 km 172 LD |
| 1979-09-24 | Earth | 78277.01 | 38,239,749 km 99.5 LD |
| 1977-08-30 | Earth | 52018.47 | 35,437,679 km 92.2 LD |
| 1977-04-25 | Earth | 46877.92 | 67,714,752 km 176 LD |
| 1952-09-25 | Earth | 82085.09 | 45,271,352 km 118 LD |
| 1950-09-02 | Earth | 53159.63 | 28,071,786 km 73.0 LD |
| 1950-04-23 | Earth | 46504.18 | 69,880,192 km 182 LD |
| 1948-04-26 | Earth | 70385.30 | 74,286,510 km 193 LD |
| 1925-09-27 | Earth | 84209.69 | 48,937,926 km 127 LD |
| 1923-09-04 | Earth | 53780.01 | 24,868,365 km 64.7 LD |
| 1923-04-22 | Earth | 46446.14 | 70,859,025 km 184 LD |
| 1921-04-27 | Earth | 68500.90 | 72,456,991 km 188 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-08T00:37:15.757088+00:00.