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Designation: 2004 TB10 · NASA id: 3256319
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 133 – 298 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
34.2 megatonnes – 1,275 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 423.3 days (1.16 years) |
| Eccentricity | .09372369408892202 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.103401639861012 AU |
| Inclination | 22.50334456557121° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .9999867621094635 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.20681651761256 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01062 AU = 1,588,924 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 12.81991717515628° |
| Argument of perihelion | 149.9139183386481° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 295.1169818531707° / .8503615919520197°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.563 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-03-01 05:59:45 |
| Observed | 2004-10-07 to 2019-04-27 (5315 day arc, 143 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 94 total.
next approach: 2033-10-12
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2195-04-16 | Earth | 55242.08 | 45,521,401 km 118 LD |
| 2194-10-11 | Earth | 41545.95 | 28,716,779 km 74.7 LD |
| 2187-09-29 | Earth | 41756.03 | 36,551,808 km 95.1 LD |
| 2187-03-20 | Earth | 61266.06 | 67,125,657 km 175 LD |
| 2180-09-12 | Earth | 42695.31 | 54,906,081 km 143 LD |
| 2180-03-27 | Earth | 46644.06 | 30,855,579 km 80.3 LD |
| 2179-11-07 | Earth | 50898.62 | 65,638,544 km 171 LD |
| 2173-04-04 | Earth | 43184.61 | 4,702,915 km 12.2 LD |
| 2172-10-24 | Earth | 44745.56 | 42,913,485 km 112 LD |
| 2166-04-17 | Earth | 56742.28 | 48,898,350 km 127 LD |
| 2165-10-09 | Earth | 41440.29 | 28,285,755 km 73.6 LD |
| 2158-09-23 | Earth | 42221.39 | 42,520,249 km 111 LD |
| 2158-03-22 | Earth | 54968.20 | 53,638,900 km 140 LD |
| 2151-08-28 | Earth | 40827.28 | 66,505,737 km 173 LD |
| 2151-04-02 | Earth | 42856.61 | 8,841,758 km 23.0 LD |
| 2150-10-29 | Earth | 46715.64 | 50,797,269 km 132 LD |
| 2144-04-11 | Earth | 49368.50 | 30,880,377 km 80.3 LD |
| 2143-10-16 | Earth | 42145.00 | 31,182,589 km 81.1 LD |
| 2137-04-23 | Earth | 68008.36 | 70,954,623 km 185 LD |
| 2136-10-02 | Earth | 41498.38 | 32,646,258 km 84.9 LD |
| 2129-09-15 | Earth | 42715.14 | 52,010,389 km 135 LD |
| 2129-03-26 | Earth | 48207.70 | 36,197,262 km 94.2 LD |
| 2128-11-08 | Earth | 52216.63 | 68,999,922 km 180 LD |
| 2122-04-04 | Earth | 43135.03 | 4,179,376 km 10.9 LD |
| 2121-10-24 | Earth | 44808.94 | 42,749,420 km 111 LD |
| 2115-04-18 | Earth | 59162.04 | 53,953,286 km 140 LD |
| 2114-10-08 | Earth | 41341.60 | 28,441,160 km 74.0 LD |
| 2107-09-19 | Earth | 42638.91 | 48,499,114 km 126 LD |
| 2107-03-25 | Earth | 50200.51 | 41,987,985 km 109 LD |
| 2106-11-11 | Earth | 53777.80 | 72,724,594 km 189 LD |
| 2100-04-05 | Earth | 43630.96 | 8,392,480 km 21.8 LD |
| 2099-10-21 | Earth | 44225.54 | 40,037,956 km 104 LD |
| 2093-04-19 | Earth | 63900.69 | 63,306,568 km 165 LD |
| 2092-10-03 | Earth | 41401.58 | 30,251,635 km 78.7 LD |
| 2085-09-10 | Earth | 42847.73 | 56,781,082 km 148 LD |
| 2085-03-27 | Earth | 45452.75 | 26,546,033 km 69.1 LD |
| 2084-11-02 | Earth | 50342.20 | 61,681,203 km 160 LD |
| 2078-04-10 | Earth | 48324.56 | 27,859,396 km 72.5 LD |
| 2077-10-15 | Earth | 42320.17 | 31,252,813 km 81.3 LD |
| 2070-09-26 | Earth | 41867.31 | 37,743,412 km 98.2 LD |
| 2070-03-19 | Earth | 58974.26 | 62,670,602 km 163 LD |
| 2063-08-25 | Earth | 40534.30 | 67,185,104 km 175 LD |
| 2063-04-01 | Earth | 42777.81 | 7,490,791 km 19.5 LD |
| 2062-10-26 | Earth | 46557.82 | 49,215,671 km 128 LD |
| 2056-04-13 | Earth | 53640.08 | 41,812,365 km 109 LD |
| 2055-10-11 | Earth | 41583.95 | 28,352,771 km 73.8 LD |
| 2048-09-23 | Earth | 42130.94 | 41,729,840 km 109 LD |
| 2048-03-20 | Earth | 55562.67 | 55,311,465 km 144 LD |
| 2041-08-21 | Earth | 39374.24 | 68,189,635 km 177 LD |
| 2041-04-01 | Earth | 42740.67 | 6,002,347 km 15.6 LD |
| 2040-10-26 | Earth | 46265.80 | 48,481,382 km 126 LD |
| 2034-04-12 | Earth | 51268.61 | 36,015,031 km 93.7 LD |
| 2033-10-12 next | Earth | 41830.02 | 29,516,385 km 76.8 LD |
| 2026-09-28 | Earth | 41660.35 | 35,666,462 km 92.8 LD |
| 2026-03-18 | Earth | 62218.38 | 69,328,740 km 180 LD |
| 2019-09-09 | Earth | 42668.88 | 57,411,371 km 149 LD |
| 2019-03-27 | Earth | 45507.33 | 26,862,314 km 69.9 LD |
| 2018-11-03 | Earth | 50312.56 | 62,130,653 km 162 LD |
| 2012-04-05 | Earth | 44701.63 | 14,492,389 km 37.7 LD |
| 2011-10-20 | Earth | 43516.00 | 37,184,272 km 96.7 LD |
| 2005-04-18 | Earth | 61338.74 | 58,191,519 km 151 LD |
| 2004-10-05 | Earth | 41341.47 | 29,269,613 km 76.1 LD |
| 1997-09-18 | Earth | 42479.32 | 47,591,224 km 124 LD |
| 1997-03-22 | Earth | 51208.22 | 44,930,187 km 117 LD |
| 1996-11-11 | Earth | 54320.55 | 74,673,617 km 194 LD |
| 1990-04-02 | Earth | 42832.08 | 1,995,064 km 5.19 LD |
| 1989-10-24 | Earth | 45433.78 | 45,363,948 km 118 LD |
| 1983-04-11 | Earth | 49959.60 | 32,370,116 km 84.2 LD |
| 1982-10-14 | Earth | 42037.16 | 30,440,774 km 79.2 LD |
| 1976-04-20 | Earth | 65550.58 | 66,255,941 km 172 LD |
| 1975-10-02 | Earth | 41427.85 | 31,595,620 km 82.2 LD |
| 1968-09-18 | Earth | 42368.31 | 46,863,929 km 122 LD |
| 1968-03-21 | Earth | 52455.19 | 48,200,367 km 125 LD |
| 1961-08-28 | Earth | 41046.96 | 65,115,970 km 169 LD |
| 1961-03-29 | Earth | 43169.76 | 14,032,285 km 36.5 LD |
| 1960-10-28 | Earth | 47566.86 | 53,372,334 km 139 LD |
| 1954-04-07 | Earth | 45290.62 | 16,937,151 km 44.1 LD |
| 1953-10-18 | Earth | 43190.79 | 36,018,136 km 93.7 LD |
| 1947-04-16 | Earth | 57341.69 | 49,918,429 km 130 LD |
| 1946-10-08 | Earth | 41378.11 | 28,571,716 km 74.3 LD |
| 1939-09-26 | Earth | 41800.85 | 38,325,637 km 99.7 LD |
| 1939-03-19 | Earth | 60245.43 | 65,617,576 km 171 LD |
| 1932-09-10 | Earth | 42562.74 | 55,670,094 km 145 LD |
| 1932-03-25 | Earth | 46759.58 | 31,961,216 km 83.1 LD |
| 1931-11-05 | Earth | 51366.99 | 65,254,235 km 170 LD |
| 1925-04-02 | Earth | 42898.37 | 1,946,464 km 5.06 LD |
| 1924-10-23 | Earth | 45166.22 | 43,437,071 km 113 LD |
| 1918-04-13 | Earth | 54131.70 | 42,561,111 km 111 LD |
| 1917-10-09 | Earth | 41529.51 | 28,217,020 km 73.4 LD |
| 1910-09-25 | Earth | 41904.45 | 39,548,944 km 103 LD |
| 1910-03-19 | Earth | 58709.92 | 62,766,498 km 163 LD |
| 1903-09-03 | Earth | 42017.38 | 62,058,308 km 161 LD |
| 1903-03-28 | Earth | 44020.47 | 20,350,923 km 52.9 LD |
| 1902-10-30 | Earth | 48926.52 | 56,527,703 km 147 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-23T02:58:47.796459+00:00.