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Designation: 2005 JU81 · NASA id: 3278078
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 117 – 261 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
17.7 megatonnes – 659.0 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 430.8 days (1.18 years) |
| Eccentricity | .277426565958567 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.116273773925619 AU |
| Inclination | 17.28988286242937° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .8065897741558248 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.425957773695413 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.02942 AU = 4,401,588 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 56.30306107279979° |
| Argument of perihelion | 72.52391768616235° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 214.5329275389856° / .8356953617647392°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.511 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-11-06 06:05:16 |
| Observed | 2005-05-12 to 2023-11-05 (6751 day arc, 83 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 94 total.
next approach: 2031-01-17
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2195-06-22 | Earth | 33429.71 | 67,316,852 km 175 LD |
| 2194-11-22 | Earth | 38585.39 | 11,718,404 km 30.5 LD |
| 2189-05-09 | Earth | 45847.16 | 14,604,791 km 38.0 LD |
| 2187-10-26 | Earth | 77554.63 | 59,495,273 km 155 LD |
| 2182-06-01 | Earth | 33470.41 | 52,696,179 km 137 LD |
| 2181-12-18 | Earth | 34445.47 | 37,793,637 km 98.3 LD |
| 2176-05-14 | Earth | 62498.89 | 39,545,993 km 103 LD |
| 2174-11-05 | Earth | 58897.33 | 30,124,812 km 78.4 LD |
| 2169-05-12 | Earth | 33510.62 | 30,450,658 km 79.2 LD |
| 2168-10-05 | Earth | 27970.06 | 69,005,018 km 180 LD |
| 2163-05-22 | Earth | 80480.72 | 66,884,780 km 174 LD |
| 2162-07-01 | Earth | 33068.28 | 72,042,767 km 187 LD |
| 2161-11-16 | Earth | 43478.31 | 4,105,602 km 10.7 LD |
| 2156-05-07 | Earth | 39592.13 | 12,636,279 km 32.9 LD |
| 2154-10-21 | Earth | 87081.75 | 73,856,847 km 192 LD |
| 2149-06-15 | Earth | 33598.16 | 63,334,541 km 165 LD |
| 2148-11-26 | Earth | 36129.98 | 20,074,581 km 52.2 LD |
| 2143-05-10 | Earth | 49848.82 | 20,168,928 km 52.5 LD |
| 2141-10-28 | Earth | 72634.58 | 51,972,312 km 135 LD |
| 2136-05-27 | Earth | 33313.89 | 48,384,700 km 126 LD |
| 2136-01-03 | Earth | 33853.46 | 42,828,485 km 111 LD |
| 2130-05-16 | Earth | 65488.21 | 44,200,506 km 115 LD |
| 2128-11-06 | Earth | 56078.25 | 25,353,041 km 66.0 LD |
| 2123-05-12 | Earth | 33797.07 | 28,122,531 km 73.2 LD |
| 2122-09-29 | Earth | 27488.26 | 70,737,539 km 184 LD |
| 2117-05-22 | Earth | 80943.46 | 67,567,715 km 176 LD |
| 2116-06-30 | Earth | 33144.78 | 71,877,545 km 187 LD |
| 2115-11-16 | Earth | 43246.72 | 4,151,160 km 10.8 LD |
| 2110-05-08 | Earth | 39264.13 | 13,050,863 km 34.0 LD |
| 2108-10-20 | Earth | 87592.99 | 74,557,678 km 194 LD |
| 2103-06-17 | Earth | 33596.42 | 64,443,374 km 168 LD |
| 2102-11-25 | Earth | 36672.57 | 17,984,276 km 46.8 LD |
| 2097-05-08 | Earth | 47832.76 | 17,340,994 km 45.1 LD |
| 2095-10-26 | Earth | 75102.84 | 55,748,701 km 145 LD |
| 2090-05-30 | Earth | 33464.65 | 51,856,730 km 135 LD |
| 2089-12-20 | Earth | 34485.53 | 38,935,976 km 101 LD |
| 2084-05-13 | Earth | 61607.78 | 38,229,842 km 99.5 LD |
| 2082-11-03 | Earth | 59966.54 | 31,872,967 km 82.9 LD |
| 2077-05-14 | Earth | 33210.79 | 34,222,916 km 89.0 LD |
| 2076-10-14 | Earth | 28983.03 | 66,446,387 km 173 LD |
| 2071-05-19 | Earth | 75932.55 | 60,109,138 km 156 LD |
| 2070-07-05 | Earth | 32888.58 | 74,441,068 km 194 LD |
| 2069-11-12 | Earth | 47025.51 | 9,361,845 km 24.4 LD |
| 2064-05-07 | Earth | 35958.95 | 19,294,433 km 50.2 LD |
| 2058-05-22 | Earth | 84678.27 | 73,004,205 km 190 LD |
| 2057-06-25 | Earth | 33434.69 | 70,063,191 km 182 LD |
| 2056-11-17 | Earth | 41151.70 | 6,088,635 km 15.8 LD |
| 2051-05-07 | Earth | 41486.94 | 11,931,857 km 31.0 LD |
| 2049-10-21 | Earth | 83655.15 | 68,607,214 km 178 LD |
| 2044-06-09 | Earth | 33633.20 | 60,250,257 km 157 LD |
| 2043-12-01 | Earth | 35056.93 | 26,133,218 km 68.0 LD |
| 2038-05-10 | Earth | 53173.32 | 25,226,698 km 65.6 LD |
| 2036-10-29 | Earth | 68544.66 | 45,660,661 km 119 LD |
| 2031-05-22 | Earth | 33206.38 | 44,233,051 km 115 LD |
| 2031-01-17 next | Earth | 31891.80 | 46,109,475 km 120 LD |
| 2025-05-15 | Earth | 68604.54 | 49,057,849 km 128 LD |
| 2023-11-08 | Earth | 53017.24 | 20,051,697 km 52.2 LD |
| 2018-05-09 | Earth | 34376.57 | 25,030,348 km 65.1 LD |
| 2017-09-20 | Earth | 27105.04 | 72,941,162 km 190 LD |
| 2012-05-21 | Earth | 82632.04 | 69,991,360 km 182 LD |
| 2011-06-27 | Earth | 33389.46 | 70,917,438 km 184 LD |
| 2010-11-16 | Earth | 42113.37 | 4,862,975 km 12.7 LD |
| 2005-05-06 | Earth | 41506.54 | 11,979,602 km 31.2 LD |
| 2003-10-22 | Earth | 83145.38 | 67,825,167 km 176 LD |
| 1998-06-07 | Earth | 33617.90 | 58,580,880 km 152 LD |
| 1997-12-04 | Earth | 34759.31 | 29,281,589 km 76.2 LD |
| 1992-05-10 | Earth | 56077.71 | 29,702,083 km 77.3 LD |
| 1990-10-31 | Earth | 65012.79 | 40,033,703 km 104 LD |
| 1985-05-17 | Earth | 33111.95 | 38,933,506 km 101 LD |
| 1985-02-10 | Earth | 26736.57 | 47,968,796 km 125 LD |
| 1979-05-18 | Earth | 73853.31 | 56,965,327 km 148 LD |
| 1977-11-10 | Earth | 48176.50 | 11,511,431 km 29.9 LD |
| 1972-05-07 | Earth | 36180.46 | 18,748,367 km 48.8 LD |
| 1965-06-21 | Earth | 33598.31 | 68,032,174 km 177 LD |
| 1964-11-19 | Earth | 39202.53 | 10,529,228 km 27.4 LD |
| 1959-05-07 | Earth | 44570.57 | 13,663,498 km 35.5 LD |
| 1957-10-23 | Earth | 78654.44 | 61,107,740 km 159 LD |
| 1952-06-02 | Earth | 33554.91 | 54,345,374 km 141 LD |
| 1951-12-14 | Earth | 34650.02 | 35,749,115 km 93.0 LD |
| 1946-05-12 | Earth | 60256.76 | 36,242,556 km 94.3 LD |
| 1944-11-02 | Earth | 60626.86 | 32,906,371 km 85.6 LD |
| 1939-05-14 | Earth | 33260.65 | 33,866,288 km 88.1 LD |
| 1938-10-10 | Earth | 28254.27 | 67,455,340 km 175 LD |
| 1933-05-19 | Earth | 77478.70 | 62,388,055 km 162 LD |
| 1932-07-02 | Earth | 33166.53 | 73,352,934 km 191 LD |
| 1931-11-13 | Earth | 45303.47 | 6,739,551 km 17.5 LD |
| 1926-05-07 | Earth | 37113.89 | 16,712,366 km 43.5 LD |
| 1919-06-21 | Earth | 33678.16 | 67,714,559 km 176 LD |
| 1918-11-20 | Earth | 38963.12 | 11,255,508 km 29.3 LD |
| 1913-05-07 | Earth | 43810.41 | 13,154,126 km 34.2 LD |
| 1911-10-23 | Earth | 80018.40 | 63,166,712 km 164 LD |
| 1906-06-05 | Earth | 33640.58 | 56,789,397 km 148 LD |
| 1905-12-08 | Earth | 34736.04 | 32,078,273 km 83.5 LD |
| 1900-05-10 | Earth | 56744.10 | 30,899,370 km 80.4 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T15:41:46.360829+00:00.