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Designation: 2010 FA81 · NASA id: 3514549
Estimated diameter: 87 – 195 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
5.0 megatonnes – 187.8 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 477.3 days (1.31 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1519304215721835 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.19530551713504 AU |
| Inclination | 15.47700302595456° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | 1.013702246009157 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.376908788260924 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.03252 AU = 4,864,818 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 47.77783262242477° |
| Argument of perihelion | 140.8400494796783° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 351.2442879838729° / .7541985407693844°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.266 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2022-12-23 04:53:27 |
| Observed | 2010-03-10 to 2022-12-22 (4670 day arc, 171 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 93 total.
next approach: 2027-05-02
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2197-04-26 | Earth | 36495.58 | 42,009,737 km 109 LD |
| 2193-05-18 | Earth | 43447.15 | 35,325,430 km 91.9 LD |
| 2192-12-11 | Earth | 30225.13 | 43,983,454 km 114 LD |
| 2188-10-31 | Earth | 33852.43 | 55,804,416 km 145 LD |
| 2184-09-15 | Earth | 27033.65 | 66,169,604 km 172 LD |
| 2180-05-02 | Earth | 30254.52 | 19,582,463 km 50.9 LD |
| 2176-05-25 | Earth | 55236.85 | 56,560,886 km 147 LD |
| 2175-11-29 | Earth | 32116.71 | 46,106,639 km 120 LD |
| 2171-10-22 | Earth | 33417.93 | 59,480,369 km 155 LD |
| 2167-08-31 | Earth | 22234.32 | 66,055,879 km 172 LD |
| 2163-05-07 | Earth | 30205.19 | 5,925,925 km 15.4 LD |
| 2159-05-29 | Earth | 62450.57 | 68,448,868 km 178 LD |
| 2158-11-22 | Earth | 32931.90 | 48,028,032 km 125 LD |
| 2154-10-17 | Earth | 33023.45 | 61,119,833 km 159 LD |
| 2150-08-25 | Earth | 20749.33 | 65,860,004 km 171 LD |
| 2146-05-07 | Earth | 30247.42 | 5,731,330 km 14.9 LD |
| 2142-05-28 | Earth | 60783.95 | 65,603,244 km 171 LD |
| 2141-11-24 | Earth | 32770.55 | 47,691,696 km 124 LD |
| 2137-10-20 | Earth | 33399.02 | 60,260,795 km 157 LD |
| 2133-09-05 | Earth | 24173.99 | 66,761,909 km 174 LD |
| 2129-05-02 | Earth | 30004.70 | 17,980,767 km 46.8 LD |
| 2125-05-22 | Earth | 51270.02 | 49,546,049 km 129 LD |
| 2124-12-02 | Earth | 31644.69 | 45,446,716 km 118 LD |
| 2120-10-29 | Earth | 33912.02 | 57,084,926 km 149 LD |
| 2116-09-21 | Earth | 28598.77 | 66,481,914 km 173 LD |
| 2112-04-27 | Earth | 35451.46 | 39,821,354 km 104 LD |
| 2108-05-15 | Earth | 39614.96 | 27,216,792 km 70.8 LD |
| 2107-12-17 | Earth | 29237.84 | 43,682,069 km 114 LD |
| 2103-11-10 | Earth | 33803.09 | 52,796,505 km 137 LD |
| 2099-10-05 | Earth | 31501.71 | 64,393,137 km 168 LD |
| 2095-07-23 | Earth | 15007.07 | 62,887,335 km 164 LD |
| 2095-04-22 | Earth | 44790.58 | 61,048,868 km 159 LD |
| 2091-05-09 | Earth | 32060.55 | 8,120,360 km 21.1 LD |
| 2091-01-02 | Earth | 24947.52 | 43,877,859 km 114 LD |
| 2086-11-16 | Earth | 33299.77 | 49,607,894 km 129 LD |
| 2082-10-11 | Earth | 32406.21 | 62,704,801 km 163 LD |
| 2078-08-11 | Earth | 17374.13 | 64,831,415 km 169 LD |
| 2078-04-23 | Earth | 47784.83 | 67,953,310 km 177 LD |
| 2074-05-07 | Earth | 31367.19 | 6,082,567 km 15.8 LD |
| 2074-01-05 | Earth | 23963.47 | 43,855,035 km 114 LD |
| 2069-11-15 | Earth | 33374.63 | 49,664,520 km 129 LD |
| 2065-10-07 | Earth | 31875.19 | 63,434,587 km 165 LD |
| 2061-04-24 | Earth | 42781.49 | 57,631,738 km 150 LD |
| 2057-05-11 | Earth | 35848.84 | 18,489,440 km 48.1 LD |
| 2056-12-20 | Earth | 28126.69 | 43,031,853 km 112 LD |
| 2052-11-06 | Earth | 33716.34 | 52,770,612 km 137 LD |
| 2048-09-25 | Earth | 29749.21 | 65,537,523 km 170 LD |
| 2044-04-27 | Earth | 34499.62 | 37,735,748 km 98.2 LD |
| 2040-05-18 | Earth | 45722.27 | 39,250,927 km 102 LD |
| 2039-12-07 | Earth | 30785.04 | 43,755,742 km 114 LD |
| 2035-10-28 | Earth | 33763.37 | 56,905,697 km 148 LD |
| 2031-09-11 | Earth | 25984.84 | 66,754,266 km 174 LD |
| 2027-05-02 next | Earth | 29868.21 | 17,705,887 km 46.1 LD |
| 2023-05-24 | Earth | 56206.77 | 57,776,556 km 150 LD |
| 2022-11-26 | Earth | 32304.97 | 46,065,763 km 120 LD |
| 2018-10-19 | Earth | 33230.46 | 60,139,555 km 156 LD |
| 2014-08-27 | Earth | 21855.28 | 66,415,052 km 173 LD |
| 2010-05-05 | Earth | 30017.24 | 6,787,449 km 17.7 LD |
| 2006-05-27 | Earth | 61466.79 | 66,506,541 km 173 LD |
| 2005-11-21 | Earth | 32802.78 | 47,655,360 km 124 LD |
| 2001-10-16 | Earth | 33074.00 | 61,213,905 km 159 LD |
| 1997-08-26 | Earth | 21679.25 | 66,578,812 km 173 LD |
| 1993-05-04 | Earth | 29706.50 | 9,684,400 km 25.2 LD |
| 1989-05-24 | Earth | 57195.68 | 59,429,262 km 155 LD |
| 1988-11-24 | Earth | 32367.90 | 46,571,171 km 121 LD |
| 1984-10-21 | Earth | 33567.40 | 59,491,250 km 155 LD |
| 1980-09-09 | Earth | 25873.57 | 67,291,129 km 175 LD |
| 1976-04-29 | Earth | 31281.00 | 26,938,142 km 70.1 LD |
| 1972-05-18 | Earth | 46343.20 | 40,268,689 km 105 LD |
| 1971-12-06 | Earth | 30855.91 | 44,039,158 km 115 LD |
| 1967-11-01 | Earth | 33920.73 | 55,599,220 km 145 LD |
| 1963-09-25 | Earth | 29764.44 | 66,259,083 km 172 LD |
| 1959-04-25 | Earth | 38835.24 | 49,194,240 km 128 LD |
| 1955-05-12 | Earth | 35853.08 | 18,478,465 km 48.1 LD |
| 1954-12-21 | Earth | 28203.54 | 42,944,548 km 112 LD |
| 1950-11-11 | Earth | 33634.55 | 51,418,926 km 134 LD |
| 1946-10-06 | Earth | 31823.70 | 64,070,635 km 167 LD |
| 1942-08-04 | Earth | 16087.19 | 64,370,272 km 167 LD |
| 1942-04-25 | Earth | 45932.67 | 65,881,207 km 171 LD |
| 1938-05-07 | Earth | 31211.97 | 5,803,662 km 15.1 LD |
| 1938-01-04 | Earth | 24490.69 | 43,448,415 km 113 LD |
| 1934-05-29 | Earth | 66203.63 | 74,049,108 km 193 LD |
| 1933-11-16 | Earth | 33214.83 | 49,025,394 km 128 LD |
| 1929-10-10 | Earth | 32389.47 | 62,877,702 km 164 LD |
| 1925-08-11 | Earth | 17580.89 | 65,226,095 km 170 LD |
| 1925-04-29 | Earth | 46610.82 | 69,543,398 km 181 LD |
| 1921-05-07 | Earth | 31176.65 | 5,748,533 km 15.0 LD |
| 1921-01-03 | Earth | 24857.14 | 43,243,805 km 112 LD |
| 1916-11-14 | Earth | 33275.04 | 49,602,318 km 129 LD |
| 1912-10-05 | Earth | 31723.37 | 63,907,389 km 166 LD |
| 1908-04-25 | Earth | 42560.09 | 58,684,872 km 153 LD |
| 1904-05-10 | Earth | 35486.01 | 17,439,204 km 45.4 LD |
| 1903-12-20 | Earth | 28363.39 | 42,349,709 km 110 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T17:47:18.575097+00:00.