Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2010 MJ1)

Designation: 2010 MJ1 · NASA id: 3532366

Estimated diameter: 51 – 113 meters

≈ a football pitch
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 23.6) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 37.4 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

1.5 megatonnes – 54.2 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU

Orbital period361.1 days (0.99 years)
Eccentricity.1322581597054564 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis.9923762825932222 AU
Inclination18.2637585001486° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.8611264217221006 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.123626143464344 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.09385 AU = 14,040,269 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude98.23117682303746°
Argument of perihelion340.1784424599667°
Mean anomaly / motion51.09536853265906° / .9969870322665241°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant6.065 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 03:56:29
Observed2010-06-19 to 2010-07-13 (24 day arc, 26 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 66 total.

Why does it pass Earth and Venus? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 65 of them were approaches to Earth and 1 of them were approaches to Venus.

This one’s path runs from 0.861 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.124 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 361.1 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0939 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2084-02-21

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2199-07-18 Earth 61848.73 68,180,060 km
177 LD
2198-07-18 Earth 56029.76 59,185,454 km
154 LD
2197-07-17 Earth 50719.36 50,461,586 km
131 LD
2196-07-16 Earth 46061.97 42,124,191 km
110 LD
2195-07-16 Earth 42017.87 34,266,549 km
89.1 LD
2108-07-17 Earth 60378.98 66,039,925 km
172 LD
2107-07-18 Earth 54740.77 57,052,369 km
148 LD
2106-07-17 Earth 49501.12 48,296,531 km
126 LD
2105-07-16 Earth 44909.23 39,995,292 km
104 LD
2104-07-14 Earth 41149.49 32,255,598 km
83.9 LD
2103-07-13 Earth 38100.06 25,253,941 km
65.7 LD
2102-07-10 Earth 35971.59 19,430,019 km
50.5 LD
2101-07-07 Earth 34511.60 15,548,981 km
40.5 LD
2100-07-03 Earth 33768.09 14,471,110 km
37.6 LD
2099-06-29 Earth 33454.89 16,315,733 km
42.4 LD
2098-06-25 Earth 33610.89 20,108,095 km
52.3 LD
2097-06-21 Earth 34055.61 24,933,018 km
64.9 LD
2096-06-16 Earth 34785.28 30,254,949 km
78.7 LD
2095-06-12 Earth 35751.73 35,964,223 km
93.6 LD
2084-02-21 next Venus 33250.72 22,298,176 km
58.0 LD
2018-07-16 Earth 63892.49 71,354,882 km
186 LD
2017-07-16 Earth 58105.17 62,373,235 km
162 LD
2016-07-16 Earth 52585.70 53,593,470 km
139 LD
2015-07-16 Earth 47685.92 45,095,244 km
117 LD
2014-07-15 Earth 43415.89 36,994,184 km
96.2 LD
2013-07-13 Earth 39889.25 29,518,290 km
76.8 LD
2012-10-28 Earth 36331.80 48,987,748 km
127 LD
2012-07-10 Earth 37251.93 22,937,642 km
59.7 LD
2011-11-15 Earth 40094.62 43,073,648 km
112 LD
2011-07-08 Earth 35339.95 17,729,824 km
46.1 LD
2010-11-26 Earth 40331.38 36,898,153 km
96.0 LD
2010-07-05 Earth 34196.85 14,740,459 km
38.3 LD
2009-12-05 Earth 39867.27 30,806,127 km
80.1 LD
2009-07-01 Earth 33585.76 14,803,666 km
38.5 LD
2008-12-13 Earth 39310.52 25,150,291 km
65.4 LD
2008-06-27 Earth 33484.67 17,546,472 km
45.6 LD
2007-12-22 Earth 38937.63 20,417,020 km
53.1 LD
2007-06-24 Earth 33749.79 21,878,524 km
56.9 LD
2006-12-29 Earth 38908.72 17,488,114 km
45.5 LD
2006-06-19 Earth 34319.07 26,967,545 km
70.2 LD
2006-01-05 Earth 39332.99 17,438,618 km
45.4 LD
2005-06-14 Earth 35177.41 32,522,854 km
84.6 LD
2005-01-12 Earth 40285.90 20,486,456 km
53.3 LD
2004-06-09 Earth 36180.25 38,368,957 km
99.8 LD
2004-01-20 Earth 41833.31 25,786,267 km
67.1 LD
2003-06-03 Earth 37393.22 44,494,639 km
116 LD
2003-01-27 Earth 44003.03 32,470,894 km
84.5 LD
2002-05-25 Earth 38533.47 50,783,911 km
132 LD
2002-02-04 Earth 46768.03 39,991,390 km
104 LD
2001-02-12 Earth 50085.03 48,038,055 km
125 LD
2000-02-21 Earth 53865.49 56,383,563 km
147 LD
1999-03-01 Earth 58059.97 64,946,876 km
169 LD
1998-03-09 Earth 62640.67 73,679,280 km
192 LD
1927-07-16 Earth 62157.95 68,658,353 km
179 LD
1926-07-17 Earth 56314.61 59,639,776 km
155 LD
1925-07-16 Earth 51039.63 50,887,788 km
132 LD
1924-07-15 Earth 46232.07 42,444,564 km
110 LD
1923-07-14 Earth 42191.00 34,468,866 km
89.7 LD
1922-07-12 Earth 38950.40 27,213,915 km
70.8 LD
1921-07-09 Earth 36529.18 21,009,751 km
54.7 LD
1920-07-06 Earth 34915.32 16,440,452 km
42.8 LD
1919-07-04 Earth 33942.14 14,392,071 km
37.4 LD
1918-06-30 Earth 33521.04 15,400,744 km
40.1 LD
1917-06-26 Earth 33537.46 18,736,775 km
48.7 LD
1916-06-22 Earth 33884.66 23,303,320 km
60.6 LD
1915-06-18 Earth 34568.10 28,496,338 km
74.1 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T21:00:25.704509+00:00.