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Designation: 2010 RE31 · NASA id: 3545630
Estimated diameter: 18 – 39 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
84 kilotonnes – 3.1 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU
| Orbital period | 348.0 days (0.95 years) |
| Eccentricity | .323065259604187 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | .9681945726915361 AU |
| Inclination | 7.086145160937456° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .6554045417175801 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.280984603665492 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01420 AU = 2,124,828 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 340.4954784568528° |
| Argument of perihelion | 236.9239943689144° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 79.88272250488944° / 1.034570541639367°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.185 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 04:07:31 |
| Observed | 2010-09-05 to 2010-09-08 (3 day arc, 23 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 44 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 34 of them were approaches to Earth and 10 of them were approaches to Venus.
This one’s path runs from 0.655 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.281 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 348.0 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0142 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2029-09-05
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2085-09-06 | Venus | 38500.22 | 10,255,462 km 26.7 LD |
| 2030-08-27 | Earth | 36463.39 | 2,813,747 km 7.32 LD |
| 2029-09-05 next | Earth | 66464.98 | 40,899,370 km 106 LD |
| 2015-12-25 | Earth | 78802.65 | 58,564,432 km 152 LD |
| 2015-01-07 | Earth | 46371.24 | 19,296,667 km 50.2 LD |
| 2014-05-02 | Venus | 56740.04 | 21,255,491 km 55.3 LD |
| 2013-04-04 | Earth | 44040.85 | 50,579,993 km 132 LD |
| 2012-11-05 | Earth | 30444.30 | 46,604,546 km 121 LD |
| 2012-05-12 | Earth | 45470.91 | 54,208,609 km 141 LD |
| 2012-04-05 | Venus | 43074.63 | 8,878,527 km 23.1 LD |
| 2011-09-30 | Earth | 28506.83 | 38,644,151 km 101 LD |
| 2011-06-27 | Earth | 30922.20 | 45,246,113 km 118 LD |
| 2010-08-27 | Earth | 33724.96 | 6,346,078 km 16.5 LD |
| 2009-09-04 | Earth | 62683.29 | 35,722,464 km 92.9 LD |
| 1995-04-06 | Venus | 53816.07 | 19,011,849 km 49.5 LD |
| 1994-12-31 | Earth | 64271.28 | 39,937,400 km 104 LD |
| 1994-01-13 | Earth | 32912.55 | 15,516,137 km 40.4 LD |
| 1989-08-28 | Earth | 42163.12 | 7,038,968 km 18.3 LD |
| 1988-09-07 | Earth | 72235.98 | 48,766,617 km 127 LD |
| 1976-03-11 | Venus | 57019.97 | 21,481,687 km 55.9 LD |
| 1974-12-24 | Earth | 78391.31 | 58,058,909 km 151 LD |
| 1974-02-12 | Venus | 44173.19 | 9,515,128 km 24.8 LD |
| 1974-01-06 | Earth | 46261.11 | 19,235,809 km 50.0 LD |
| 1969-08-27 | Earth | 30954.31 | 10,753,280 km 28.0 LD |
| 1968-09-02 | Earth | 59212.44 | 30,836,257 km 80.2 LD |
| 1967-09-14 | Earth | 89099.64 | 71,457,579 km 186 LD |
| 1955-01-14 | Venus | 56237.96 | 18,996,907 km 49.4 LD |
| 1953-12-28 | Earth | 70078.57 | 47,281,006 km 123 LD |
| 1953-01-09 | Earth | 38850.70 | 14,565,913 km 37.9 LD |
| 1948-08-26 | Earth | 35854.52 | 3,632,352 km 9.45 LD |
| 1947-09-05 | Earth | 64094.54 | 37,675,232 km 98.0 LD |
| 1937-12-17 | Venus | 25119.54 | 17,179,419 km 44.7 LD |
| 1932-12-25 | Earth | 76042.72 | 54,899,085 km 143 LD |
| 1932-01-08 | Earth | 45408.06 | 18,400,115 km 47.9 LD |
| 1930-04-01 | Earth | 43155.48 | 49,609,289 km 129 LD |
| 1929-11-09 | Earth | 30337.31 | 46,684,087 km 121 LD |
| 1929-06-03 | Venus | 38179.90 | 10,409,701 km 27.1 LD |
| 1927-08-28 | Earth | 28450.47 | 15,229,355 km 39.6 LD |
| 1926-09-01 | Earth | 55054.06 | 25,184,444 km 65.5 LD |
| 1925-09-12 | Earth | 84156.72 | 64,920,864 km 169 LD |
| 1920-10-28 | Venus | 57045.98 | 21,695,635 km 56.4 LD |
| 1911-12-21 | Earth | 87674.94 | 69,905,509 km 182 LD |
| 1911-01-02 | Earth | 57085.89 | 31,105,134 km 80.9 LD |
| 1905-08-28 | Earth | 43467.93 | 8,923,952 km 23.2 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-02T14:14:15.867040+00:00.