Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2010 TW54)

Designation: 2010 TW54 · NASA id: 3548666 · Sentry Object

Estimated diameter: 8 – 18 meters

≈ a city bus
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 27.6) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
On a monitored risk list
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 0.4 lunar distances.
  • It is on the Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance above zero — 2,207 of them. Being listed is not by itself a warning.
  • The computed chance is about 1 in 15,164, over the window 2088–2122.
  • Palermo -5.76 — below zero, meaning less than the background risk from everything not yet found.
  • Torino 0.
  • Last observed 2010-10-16. A listing often reflects a short observation arc rather than a known trajectory, and more observations usually remove an object from the list.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

3 kilotonnes – 105 kilotonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period388.9 days (1.06 years)
Eccentricity.2340135535683293 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.042683034407977 AU
Inclination3.847999947190637° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.7986810722807579 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.286684996535197 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00067 AU = 99,856 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude196.2175961691802°
Argument of perihelion86.07924584809892°
Mean anomaly / motion134.4861134371882° / .925711402413278°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.859 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 04:16:11
Observed2010-10-11 to 2010-10-16 (5 day arc, 70 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 77 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Venus and Moon? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 69 of them were approaches to Earth, 7 of them were approaches to Venus and 1 of them were approaches to Moon.

This one’s path runs from 0.799 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.287 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 388.9 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0007 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2027-10-21

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2146-10-19 Earth 53246.72 35,559,373 km
92.5 LD
2104-10-29 Earth 80211.24 72,674,287 km
189 LD
2103-10-10 Earth 30186.00 3,085,543 km
8.03 LD
2100-03-10 Earth 80766.21 73,366,322 km
191 LD
2089-10-22 Earth 65346.66 52,457,423 km
136 LD
2086-03-22 Earth 49189.03 30,093,792 km
78.3 LD
2074-10-13 Earth 41512.06 19,326,775 km
50.3 LD
2073-11-24 Earth 22807.39 39,643,495 km
103 LD
2073-07-20 Earth 26704.63 32,457,889 km
84.4 LD
2073-01-19 Earth 25664.95 46,160,577 km
120 LD
2072-04-01 Earth 25077.07 4,376,773 km
11.4 LD
2071-03-12 Earth 72903.92 62,702,894 km
163 LD
2070-04-13 Venus 15859.58 15,572,387 km
40.5 LD
2065-12-12 Venus 12864.07 20,477,377 km
53.3 LD
2060-10-28 Earth 80989.66 73,637,767 km
192 LD
2059-10-10 Earth 33222.45 7,476,256 km
19.4 LD
2058-12-03 Earth 24032.39 42,160,407 km
110 LD
2058-07-09 Earth 27494.04 33,371,463 km
86.8 LD
2058-01-25 Earth 25072.37 44,492,349 km
116 LD
2057-03-31 Earth 27385.73 1,527,988 km
3.97 LD
2056-03-12 Earth 71001.08 59,946,630 km
156 LD
2044-10-29 Earth 79082.98 70,952,875 km
185 LD
2043-10-12 Earth 35229.76 10,300,185 km
26.8 LD
2042-11-27 Earth 22809.82 39,215,907 km
102 LD
2042-07-22 Earth 26818.09 32,863,802 km
85.5 LD
2042-01-16 Earth 25808.71 45,707,536 km
119 LD
2041-04-08 Earth 17165.07 16,157,107 km
42.0 LD
2040-03-17 Earth 59154.96 43,798,733 km
114 LD
2033-12-25 Venus 15204.99 14,451,674 km
37.6 LD
2027-10-21 next Earth 58257.97 42,580,909 km
111 LD
2026-09-30 Earth 16241.67 17,457,205 km
45.4 LD
2025-12-21 Earth 25936.28 45,802,544 km
119 LD
2025-06-14 Earth 26735.23 32,545,085 km
84.7 LD
2025-02-10 Earth 22493.04 38,931,977 km
101 LD
2024-03-26 Earth 36176.80 11,754,635 km
30.6 LD
2023-03-09 Earth 79979.69 72,209,992 km
188 LD
2011-10-26 Earth 71501.41 60,682,798 km
158 LD
2010-10-09 Earth 29057.82 161,144 km
0.42 LD — closer than the Moon
2010-10-08 Moon 28122.61 277,104 km
0.72 LD — closer than the Moon
2009-12-18 Earth 26412.94 47,165,913 km
123 LD
2009-06-15 Earth 26479.96 31,304,651 km
81.4 LD
2009-02-17 Earth 22133.86 38,522,628 km
100 LD
2008-03-24 Earth 49804.58 30,562,467 km
79.5 LD
1997-10-11 Earth 33295.39 7,454,641 km
19.4 LD
1996-12-11 Earth 25617.73 45,333,081 km
118 LD
1996-06-27 Earth 27680.45 32,579,349 km
84.8 LD
1996-02-08 Earth 23882.01 42,002,617 km
109 LD
1995-03-27 Earth 41803.93 19,439,865 km
50.6 LD
1992-02-27 Venus 12011.58 13,927,766 km
36.2 LD
1987-11-12 Venus 20213.06 21,332,521 km
55.5 LD
1984-10-18 Earth 51569.62 33,064,514 km
86.0 LD
1983-11-18 Earth 21284.44 36,655,635 km
95.4 LD
1983-08-01 Earth 25707.31 30,600,925 km
79.6 LD
1983-01-18 Earth 26639.27 47,674,876 km
124 LD
1982-04-04 Earth 24220.91 5,333,850 km
13.9 LD
1981-03-13 Earth 77396.85 68,480,560 km
178 LD
1971-10-30 Earth 78586.48 69,932,612 km
182 LD
1970-10-07 Earth 25234.45 3,988,176 km
10.4 LD
1969-12-21 Earth 26575.29 47,674,382 km
124 LD
1969-06-10 Earth 25740.09 30,564,452 km
79.5 LD
1969-02-21 Earth 21330.92 36,884,026 km
96.0 LD
1968-03-23 Earth 52159.71 33,794,220 km
87.9 LD
1957-10-11 Earth 33719.83 8,153,228 km
21.2 LD
1955-03-28 Earth 40616.72 17,883,252 km
46.5 LD
1952-03-05 Venus 15731.43 15,750,040 km
41.0 LD
1944-10-18 Earth 52932.72 34,851,696 km
90.7 LD
1942-04-05 Earth 23074.32 7,071,276 km
18.4 LD
1941-03-13 Earth 76539.96 67,277,530 km
175 LD
1931-10-29 Earth 76753.22 67,505,040 km
176 LD
1930-10-06 Earth 23117.76 6,944,308 km
18.1 LD
1929-12-23 Earth 26736.64 47,879,854 km
125 LD
1929-02-23 Earth 20766.89 35,918,230 km
93.4 LD
1928-03-23 Earth 52956.22 34,964,227 km
91.0 LD
1917-10-13 Earth 38689.90 15,119,056 km
39.3 LD
1912-03-11 Venus 19355.69 20,128,724 km
52.4 LD
1904-10-19 Earth 55069.75 37,804,351 km
98.3 LD
1901-03-13 Earth 75636.78 65,985,054 km
172 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-25T12:34:29.019042+00:00.