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Designation: 2010 TW54 · NASA id: 3548666
· Sentry Object
Estimated diameter: 8 – 18 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
3 kilotonnes – 105 kilotonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 388.9 days (1.06 years) |
| Eccentricity | .2340135535683293 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.042683034407977 AU |
| Inclination | 3.847999947190637° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .7986810722807579 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.286684996535197 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.00067 AU = 99,856 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 196.2175961691802° |
| Argument of perihelion | 86.07924584809892° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 134.4861134371882° / .925711402413278°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.859 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 04:16:11 |
| Observed | 2010-10-11 to 2010-10-16 (5 day arc, 70 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 77 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 69 of them were approaches to Earth, 7 of them were approaches to Venus and 1 of them were approaches to Moon.
This one’s path runs from 0.799 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.287 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 388.9 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0007 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2027-10-21
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2146-10-19 | Earth | 53246.72 | 35,559,373 km 92.5 LD |
| 2104-10-29 | Earth | 80211.24 | 72,674,287 km 189 LD |
| 2103-10-10 | Earth | 30186.00 | 3,085,543 km 8.03 LD |
| 2100-03-10 | Earth | 80766.21 | 73,366,322 km 191 LD |
| 2089-10-22 | Earth | 65346.66 | 52,457,423 km 136 LD |
| 2086-03-22 | Earth | 49189.03 | 30,093,792 km 78.3 LD |
| 2074-10-13 | Earth | 41512.06 | 19,326,775 km 50.3 LD |
| 2073-11-24 | Earth | 22807.39 | 39,643,495 km 103 LD |
| 2073-07-20 | Earth | 26704.63 | 32,457,889 km 84.4 LD |
| 2073-01-19 | Earth | 25664.95 | 46,160,577 km 120 LD |
| 2072-04-01 | Earth | 25077.07 | 4,376,773 km 11.4 LD |
| 2071-03-12 | Earth | 72903.92 | 62,702,894 km 163 LD |
| 2070-04-13 | Venus | 15859.58 | 15,572,387 km 40.5 LD |
| 2065-12-12 | Venus | 12864.07 | 20,477,377 km 53.3 LD |
| 2060-10-28 | Earth | 80989.66 | 73,637,767 km 192 LD |
| 2059-10-10 | Earth | 33222.45 | 7,476,256 km 19.4 LD |
| 2058-12-03 | Earth | 24032.39 | 42,160,407 km 110 LD |
| 2058-07-09 | Earth | 27494.04 | 33,371,463 km 86.8 LD |
| 2058-01-25 | Earth | 25072.37 | 44,492,349 km 116 LD |
| 2057-03-31 | Earth | 27385.73 | 1,527,988 km 3.97 LD |
| 2056-03-12 | Earth | 71001.08 | 59,946,630 km 156 LD |
| 2044-10-29 | Earth | 79082.98 | 70,952,875 km 185 LD |
| 2043-10-12 | Earth | 35229.76 | 10,300,185 km 26.8 LD |
| 2042-11-27 | Earth | 22809.82 | 39,215,907 km 102 LD |
| 2042-07-22 | Earth | 26818.09 | 32,863,802 km 85.5 LD |
| 2042-01-16 | Earth | 25808.71 | 45,707,536 km 119 LD |
| 2041-04-08 | Earth | 17165.07 | 16,157,107 km 42.0 LD |
| 2040-03-17 | Earth | 59154.96 | 43,798,733 km 114 LD |
| 2033-12-25 | Venus | 15204.99 | 14,451,674 km 37.6 LD |
| 2027-10-21 next | Earth | 58257.97 | 42,580,909 km 111 LD |
| 2026-09-30 | Earth | 16241.67 | 17,457,205 km 45.4 LD |
| 2025-12-21 | Earth | 25936.28 | 45,802,544 km 119 LD |
| 2025-06-14 | Earth | 26735.23 | 32,545,085 km 84.7 LD |
| 2025-02-10 | Earth | 22493.04 | 38,931,977 km 101 LD |
| 2024-03-26 | Earth | 36176.80 | 11,754,635 km 30.6 LD |
| 2023-03-09 | Earth | 79979.69 | 72,209,992 km 188 LD |
| 2011-10-26 | Earth | 71501.41 | 60,682,798 km 158 LD |
| 2010-10-09 | Earth | 29057.82 | 161,144 km 0.42 LD — closer than the Moon |
| 2010-10-08 | Moon | 28122.61 | 277,104 km 0.72 LD — closer than the Moon |
| 2009-12-18 | Earth | 26412.94 | 47,165,913 km 123 LD |
| 2009-06-15 | Earth | 26479.96 | 31,304,651 km 81.4 LD |
| 2009-02-17 | Earth | 22133.86 | 38,522,628 km 100 LD |
| 2008-03-24 | Earth | 49804.58 | 30,562,467 km 79.5 LD |
| 1997-10-11 | Earth | 33295.39 | 7,454,641 km 19.4 LD |
| 1996-12-11 | Earth | 25617.73 | 45,333,081 km 118 LD |
| 1996-06-27 | Earth | 27680.45 | 32,579,349 km 84.8 LD |
| 1996-02-08 | Earth | 23882.01 | 42,002,617 km 109 LD |
| 1995-03-27 | Earth | 41803.93 | 19,439,865 km 50.6 LD |
| 1992-02-27 | Venus | 12011.58 | 13,927,766 km 36.2 LD |
| 1987-11-12 | Venus | 20213.06 | 21,332,521 km 55.5 LD |
| 1984-10-18 | Earth | 51569.62 | 33,064,514 km 86.0 LD |
| 1983-11-18 | Earth | 21284.44 | 36,655,635 km 95.4 LD |
| 1983-08-01 | Earth | 25707.31 | 30,600,925 km 79.6 LD |
| 1983-01-18 | Earth | 26639.27 | 47,674,876 km 124 LD |
| 1982-04-04 | Earth | 24220.91 | 5,333,850 km 13.9 LD |
| 1981-03-13 | Earth | 77396.85 | 68,480,560 km 178 LD |
| 1971-10-30 | Earth | 78586.48 | 69,932,612 km 182 LD |
| 1970-10-07 | Earth | 25234.45 | 3,988,176 km 10.4 LD |
| 1969-12-21 | Earth | 26575.29 | 47,674,382 km 124 LD |
| 1969-06-10 | Earth | 25740.09 | 30,564,452 km 79.5 LD |
| 1969-02-21 | Earth | 21330.92 | 36,884,026 km 96.0 LD |
| 1968-03-23 | Earth | 52159.71 | 33,794,220 km 87.9 LD |
| 1957-10-11 | Earth | 33719.83 | 8,153,228 km 21.2 LD |
| 1955-03-28 | Earth | 40616.72 | 17,883,252 km 46.5 LD |
| 1952-03-05 | Venus | 15731.43 | 15,750,040 km 41.0 LD |
| 1944-10-18 | Earth | 52932.72 | 34,851,696 km 90.7 LD |
| 1942-04-05 | Earth | 23074.32 | 7,071,276 km 18.4 LD |
| 1941-03-13 | Earth | 76539.96 | 67,277,530 km 175 LD |
| 1931-10-29 | Earth | 76753.22 | 67,505,040 km 176 LD |
| 1930-10-06 | Earth | 23117.76 | 6,944,308 km 18.1 LD |
| 1929-12-23 | Earth | 26736.64 | 47,879,854 km 125 LD |
| 1929-02-23 | Earth | 20766.89 | 35,918,230 km 93.4 LD |
| 1928-03-23 | Earth | 52956.22 | 34,964,227 km 91.0 LD |
| 1917-10-13 | Earth | 38689.90 | 15,119,056 km 39.3 LD |
| 1912-03-11 | Venus | 19355.69 | 20,128,724 km 52.4 LD |
| 1904-10-19 | Earth | 55069.75 | 37,804,351 km 98.3 LD |
| 1901-03-13 | Earth | 75636.78 | 65,985,054 km 172 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-25T12:34:29.019042+00:00.