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Designation: 2011 AR26 · NASA id: 3555163
Estimated diameter: 234 – 522 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
299.7 megatonnes – 11,169 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 576.0 days (1.58 years) |
| Eccentricity | .4044627282087981 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.354884089468226 AU |
| Inclination | 24.31838854121568° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .8068839742352137 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.902884204701238 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.10710 AU = 16,022,082 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 308.4096020951841° |
| Argument of perihelion | 48.3170623844136° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 234.4285341809855° / .6249580400870659°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 4.691 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-03-01 06:01:30 |
| Observed | 2010-07-05 to 2022-02-04 (4232 day arc, 125 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 58 total.
next approach: 2029-06-23
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2196-12-25 | Earth | 58695.10 | 48,548,292 km 126 LD |
| 2193-07-08 | Earth | 74604.70 | 34,857,340 km 90.7 LD |
| 2185-12-30 | Earth | 48774.66 | 54,384,711 km 141 LD |
| 2185-09-26 | Earth | 52490.03 | 57,329,481 km 149 LD |
| 2182-06-23 | Earth | 95299.45 | 68,656,956 km 179 LD |
| 2175-01-10 | Earth | 49137.80 | 72,123,810 km 188 LD |
| 2174-08-17 | Earth | 55192.91 | 33,245,040 km 86.5 LD |
| 2166-12-28 | Earth | 75367.88 | 60,963,273 km 159 LD |
| 2163-07-23 | Earth | 61843.63 | 15,900,600 km 41.4 LD |
| 2155-12-26 | Earth | 55620.79 | 48,175,657 km 125 LD |
| 2152-07-04 | Earth | 78487.40 | 41,548,272 km 108 LD |
| 2145-01-01 | Earth | 48387.01 | 57,655,839 km 150 LD |
| 2144-09-16 | Earth | 54343.89 | 53,220,494 km 138 LD |
| 2133-08-11 | Earth | 55729.03 | 27,675,587 km 72.0 LD |
| 2125-12-27 | Earth | 70531.82 | 56,799,560 km 148 LD |
| 2122-07-19 | Earth | 64726.23 | 18,826,829 km 49.0 LD |
| 2114-12-26 | Earth | 52770.25 | 48,787,189 km 127 LD |
| 2111-07-02 | Earth | 82804.59 | 48,811,187 km 127 LD |
| 2104-01-04 | Earth | 48340.25 | 61,618,052 km 160 LD |
| 2103-09-06 | Earth | 55050.02 | 47,904,595 km 125 LD |
| 2092-08-03 | Earth | 56960.22 | 21,540,966 km 56.0 LD |
| 2084-12-24 | Earth | 65430.04 | 53,105,477 km 138 LD |
| 2081-07-13 | Earth | 68406.52 | 24,629,690 km 64.1 LD |
| 2073-12-26 | Earth | 50581.16 | 50,579,459 km 132 LD |
| 2070-06-27 | Earth | 87884.21 | 57,267,982 km 149 LD |
| 2063-01-05 | Earth | 48601.68 | 66,098,109 km 172 LD |
| 2062-08-26 | Earth | 55217.66 | 41,549,263 km 108 LD |
| 2054-12-29 | Earth | 82662.68 | 69,320,668 km 180 LD |
| 2051-07-29 | Earth | 58762.43 | 17,331,931 km 45.1 LD |
| 2043-12-24 | Earth | 61046.87 | 50,673,926 km 132 LD |
| 2040-07-09 | Earth | 72204.33 | 31,131,528 km 81.0 LD |
| 2032-12-27 | Earth | 49284.48 | 53,045,459 km 138 LD |
| 2032-10-01 | Earth | 50819.02 | 59,248,902 km 154 LD |
| 2029-06-23 next | Earth | 92307.32 | 64,561,913 km 168 LD |
| 2022-01-06 | Earth | 48932.06 | 69,442,312 km 181 LD |
| 2021-08-20 | Earth | 55303.47 | 36,595,960 km 95.2 LD |
| 2013-12-27 | Earth | 78681.31 | 65,474,446 km 170 LD |
| 2010-07-25 | Earth | 60452.59 | 15,935,960 km 41.5 LD |
| 2002-12-23 | Earth | 57772.39 | 49,606,884 km 129 LD |
| 1999-07-06 | Earth | 75551.23 | 36,957,945 km 96.1 LD |
| 1991-12-29 | Earth | 48679.94 | 55,499,711 km 144 LD |
| 1991-09-22 | Earth | 53548.94 | 56,169,223 km 146 LD |
| 1988-06-20 | Earth | 95881.37 | 70,341,192 km 183 LD |
| 1981-01-08 | Earth | 49311.65 | 72,575,409 km 189 LD |
| 1980-08-14 | Earth | 55524.67 | 31,910,271 km 83.0 LD |
| 1972-12-25 | Earth | 74781.48 | 61,881,030 km 161 LD |
| 1969-07-21 | Earth | 62341.47 | 16,569,887 km 43.1 LD |
| 1961-12-23 | Earth | 55395.92 | 49,367,123 km 128 LD |
| 1958-07-03 | Earth | 78725.88 | 42,521,834 km 111 LD |
| 1950-12-30 | Earth | 48375.63 | 58,171,680 km 151 LD |
| 1950-09-14 | Earth | 54768.25 | 52,571,870 km 137 LD |
| 1939-08-09 | Earth | 56060.88 | 26,908,724 km 70.0 LD |
| 1931-12-25 | Earth | 70561.10 | 58,290,696 km 152 LD |
| 1928-07-17 | Earth | 64869.48 | 19,440,306 km 50.6 LD |
| 1920-12-23 | Earth | 52737.09 | 49,863,618 km 130 LD |
| 1917-06-29 | Earth | 83098.71 | 50,038,403 km 130 LD |
| 1910-01-01 | Earth | 48329.54 | 61,971,653 km 161 LD |
| 1909-09-04 | Earth | 55396.26 | 47,169,803 km 123 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-02T15:12:30.537035+00:00.