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Designation: 2011 YD29 · NASA id: 3591754
Estimated diameter: 15 – 33 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
42 kilotonnes – 1.6 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU
| Orbital period | 244.8 days (0.67 years) |
| Eccentricity | .3088951361858492 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | .7658958843259114 AU |
| Inclination | 6.970118310921364° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .5293143708328776 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.002477397818945 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01527 AU = 2,284,030 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 281.5698153887922° |
| Argument of perihelion | 5.541022836857465° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 78.95245684085143° / 1.470447320256078°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 7.518 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 05:52:20 |
| Observed | 2011-12-29 to 2012-01-01 (3 day arc, 25 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 88 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 58 of them were approaches to Earth, 17 of them were approaches to Merc and 13 of them were approaches to Venus.
This one’s path runs from 0.529 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.002 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 244.8 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0153 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2027-12-19
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2171-12-21 | Earth | 68174.02 | 55,770,305 km 145 LD |
| 2169-12-19 | Earth | 60544.26 | 46,395,318 km 121 LD |
| 2167-12-18 | Earth | 53091.66 | 37,276,419 km 97.0 LD |
| 2165-12-16 | Earth | 45780.39 | 28,441,534 km 74.0 LD |
| 2163-12-16 | Earth | 39040.61 | 20,281,130 km 52.8 LD |
| 2161-12-16 | Earth | 33173.80 | 13,074,496 km 34.0 LD |
| 2155-12-25 | Earth | 25009.27 | 2,616,314 km 6.81 LD |
| 2153-12-24 | Earth | 25106.30 | 2,788,091 km 7.25 LD |
| 2153-09-05 | Merc | 42047.34 | 12,170,081 km 31.7 LD |
| 2151-01-07 | Merc | 52831.52 | 12,925,879 km 33.6 LD |
| 2147-12-16 | Earth | 34817.67 | 14,927,668 km 38.8 LD |
| 2145-12-15 | Earth | 40883.42 | 22,149,892 km 57.6 LD |
| 2143-12-16 | Earth | 47578.13 | 30,236,444 km 78.7 LD |
| 2141-12-17 | Earth | 54519.70 | 38,726,794 km 101 LD |
| 2139-12-20 | Earth | 61924.77 | 47,628,656 km 124 LD |
| 2137-12-21 | Earth | 69385.94 | 56,696,047 km 147 LD |
| 2135-12-24 | Earth | 76922.61 | 65,914,613 km 171 LD |
| 2133-03-31 | Venus | 49941.16 | 18,068,209 km 47.0 LD |
| 2124-08-18 | Venus | 43152.76 | 16,781,273 km 43.7 LD |
| 2116-01-07 | Venus | 38154.52 | 17,213,984 km 44.8 LD |
| 2113-03-21 | Merc | 44040.14 | 13,768,369 km 35.8 LD |
| 2110-07-27 | Merc | 42594.64 | 12,036,256 km 31.3 LD |
| 2109-01-21 | Earth | 76584.86 | 66,138,659 km 172 LD |
| 2107-12-01 | Merc | 42255.42 | 10,589,859 km 27.5 LD |
| 2107-05-29 | Venus | 33755.64 | 18,822,775 km 49.0 LD |
| 2107-01-24 | Earth | 68560.83 | 56,502,693 km 147 LD |
| 2105-04-06 | Merc | 43385.37 | 9,852,690 km 25.6 LD |
| 2105-01-26 | Earth | 60570.41 | 47,007,920 km 122 LD |
| 2103-01-28 | Earth | 52825.31 | 37,704,856 km 98.1 LD |
| 2102-08-12 | Merc | 46546.70 | 10,295,624 km 26.8 LD |
| 2101-01-29 | Earth | 45229.85 | 28,765,838 km 74.8 LD |
| 2099-12-16 | Merc | 52271.40 | 12,436,489 km 32.4 LD |
| 2099-01-28 | Earth | 38094.75 | 20,613,900 km 53.6 LD |
| 2097-03-19 | Venus | 43955.99 | 18,318,614 km 47.7 LD |
| 2097-01-27 | Earth | 31917.47 | 13,698,140 km 35.6 LD |
| 2095-01-23 | Earth | 27353.55 | 8,722,847 km 22.7 LD |
| 2091-01-12 | Earth | 23715.88 | 4,326,361 km 11.3 LD |
| 2090-10-18 | Venus | 55953.36 | 21,051,309 km 54.8 LD |
| 2089-01-06 | Earth | 23425.56 | 3,405,535 km 8.86 LD |
| 2087-01-04 | Earth | 23460.53 | 2,840,016 km 7.39 LD |
| 2085-12-31 | Merc | 42338.72 | 13,026,896 km 33.9 LD |
| 2085-01-01 | Earth | 23522.43 | 2,567,641 km 6.68 LD |
| 2083-01-02 | Earth | 23467.14 | 2,580,318 km 6.71 LD |
| 2081-01-03 | Earth | 23425.14 | 2,848,186 km 7.41 LD |
| 2079-01-07 | Earth | 23388.96 | 3,476,269 km 9.04 LD |
| 2077-04-30 | Merc | 41511.78 | 12,743,255 km 33.2 LD |
| 2074-10-19 | Venus | 44421.50 | 17,674,779 km 46.0 LD |
| 2071-04-23 | Merc | 41704.55 | 13,698,760 km 35.6 LD |
| 2071-01-28 | Earth | 31907.11 | 14,232,215 km 37.0 LD |
| 2069-01-29 | Earth | 37934.45 | 21,056,922 km 54.8 LD |
| 2067-01-30 | Earth | 44908.06 | 29,087,791 km 75.7 LD |
| 2065-04-12 | Merc | 45279.43 | 11,842,769 km 30.8 LD |
| 2065-01-28 | Earth | 52339.74 | 37,798,738 km 98.3 LD |
| 2063-01-27 | Earth | 59937.16 | 46,866,097 km 122 LD |
| 2061-01-25 | Earth | 67598.93 | 56,105,681 km 146 LD |
| 2059-01-23 | Earth | 75421.29 | 65,578,879 km 171 LD |
| 2055-11-23 | Merc | 41468.65 | 13,679,009 km 35.6 LD |
| 2049-11-11 | Merc | 52544.67 | 14,918,416 km 38.8 LD |
| 2040-06-22 | Merc | 44199.30 | 11,627,640 km 30.2 LD |
| 2037-04-09 | Venus | 35384.98 | 18,464,017 km 48.0 LD |
| 2035-09-10 | Venus | 54537.71 | 22,171,128 km 57.7 LD |
| 2031-12-24 | Earth | 77870.69 | 67,755,512 km 176 LD |
| 2031-01-31 | Merc | 41039.58 | 12,173,053 km 31.7 LD |
| 2029-12-21 | Earth | 69650.57 | 57,826,642 km 150 LD |
| 2029-11-20 | Venus | 42628.83 | 17,654,651 km 45.9 LD |
| 2028-04-26 | Venus | 46285.07 | 19,268,727 km 50.1 LD |
| 2027-12-19 next | Earth | 61639.44 | 48,067,354 km 125 LD |
| 2025-12-17 | Earth | 53750.14 | 38,406,758 km 99.9 LD |
| 2023-12-16 | Earth | 46159.44 | 29,147,304 km 75.8 LD |
| 2022-07-05 | Venus | 53256.03 | 20,534,256 km 53.4 LD |
| 2021-12-15 | Earth | 38892.77 | 20,424,219 km 53.1 LD |
| 2019-12-17 | Earth | 32545.04 | 12,803,676 km 33.3 LD |
| 2017-12-19 | Earth | 27859.86 | 6,941,725 km 18.1 LD |
| 2015-12-24 | Earth | 25183.21 | 3,529,088 km 9.18 LD |
| 2013-12-27 | Earth | 24275.25 | 2,464,701 km 6.41 LD |
| 2011-12-30 | Earth | 23973.18 | 2,301,407 km 5.99 LD |
| 2009-12-30 | Earth | 23751.29 | 2,309,035 km 6.01 LD |
| 2008-01-01 | Earth | 23661.81 | 2,392,619 km 6.22 LD |
| 1950-12-18 | Earth | 54176.47 | 38,775,433 km 101 LD |
| 1948-12-16 | Earth | 46273.75 | 29,238,975 km 76.1 LD |
| 1946-12-16 | Earth | 38804.49 | 20,247,571 km 52.7 LD |
| 1944-12-17 | Earth | 32362.42 | 12,448,313 km 32.4 LD |
| 1936-09-02 | Merc | 40783.77 | 11,159,289 km 29.0 LD |
| 1931-06-20 | Venus | 56696.81 | 21,418,474 km 55.7 LD |
| 1927-01-30 | Earth | 32072.91 | 13,857,759 km 36.1 LD |
| 1925-01-31 | Earth | 38412.23 | 21,079,335 km 54.8 LD |
| 1923-02-01 | Earth | 45708.75 | 29,573,102 km 76.9 LD |
| 1921-01-30 | Earth | 53510.72 | 38,754,354 km 101 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-06T17:45:03.709954+00:00.