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Designation: 2015 GW12 · NASA id: 3715693
Estimated diameter: 43 – 96 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
602 kilotonnes – 22.4 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 543.3 days (1.49 years) |
| Eccentricity | .2823247681263069 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.303039258252673 AU |
| Inclination | 14.26278769901765° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .9351590018070119 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.670919514698334 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.08163 AU = 12,212,153 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 190.9950672692167° |
| Argument of perihelion | 285.8582020523498° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 95.74518492223191° / .6626250091821509°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 4.924 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 13:29:17 |
| Observed | 2015-04-10 to 2018-04-17 (1103 day arc, 34 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 1 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 82 total.
next approach: 2026-11-02
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2200-11-05 | Earth | 58101.96 | 52,434,766 km 136 LD |
| 2198-04-12 | Earth | 26742.59 | 55,148,520 km 143 LD |
| 2197-11-09 | Earth | 43592.07 | 34,913,776 km 90.8 LD |
| 2195-03-22 | Earth | 26529.42 | 35,306,456 km 91.8 LD |
| 2194-11-09 | Earth | 32587.03 | 27,997,772 km 72.8 LD |
| 2192-03-19 | Earth | 30612.39 | 16,334,156 km 42.5 LD |
| 2191-11-01 | Earth | 28534.17 | 35,111,342 km 91.3 LD |
| 2189-03-23 | Earth | 40069.82 | 15,786,911 km 41.1 LD |
| 2188-10-19 | Earth | 29554.62 | 47,061,442 km 122 LD |
| 2186-03-29 | Earth | 53179.22 | 35,573,924 km 92.5 LD |
| 2185-10-07 | Earth | 31556.02 | 59,835,830 km 156 LD |
| 2183-04-05 | Earth | 68151.67 | 58,727,419 km 153 LD |
| 2182-09-25 | Earth | 33504.73 | 71,525,234 km 186 LD |
| 2145-10-29 | Earth | 73818.02 | 73,342,489 km 191 LD |
| 2143-05-02 | Earth | 27700.37 | 70,835,431 km 184 LD |
| 2142-11-04 | Earth | 58073.55 | 52,159,888 km 136 LD |
| 2140-04-11 | Earth | 26764.65 | 54,869,247 km 143 LD |
| 2139-11-09 | Earth | 43471.11 | 34,528,136 km 89.8 LD |
| 2137-03-21 | Earth | 26545.42 | 35,228,474 km 91.6 LD |
| 2136-11-08 | Earth | 32526.78 | 27,766,254 km 72.2 LD |
| 2134-03-19 | Earth | 30584.32 | 16,432,242 km 42.7 LD |
| 2133-10-31 | Earth | 28578.27 | 35,030,566 km 91.1 LD |
| 2131-03-23 | Earth | 40024.37 | 15,950,380 km 41.5 LD |
| 2130-10-19 | Earth | 29462.69 | 47,084,734 km 122 LD |
| 2128-03-28 | Earth | 53245.38 | 35,802,558 km 93.1 LD |
| 2127-10-07 | Earth | 31611.05 | 59,992,865 km 156 LD |
| 2125-04-04 | Earth | 68144.66 | 58,734,010 km 153 LD |
| 2124-09-24 | Earth | 33397.27 | 71,642,766 km 186 LD |
| 2087-10-28 | Earth | 74021.45 | 73,481,809 km 191 LD |
| 2085-04-30 | Earth | 27807.21 | 70,836,015 km 184 LD |
| 2084-11-02 | Earth | 58105.95 | 52,031,099 km 135 LD |
| 2082-04-10 | Earth | 26772.92 | 54,934,222 km 143 LD |
| 2081-11-07 | Earth | 43572.24 | 34,460,720 km 89.6 LD |
| 2079-03-21 | Earth | 26487.90 | 35,624,016 km 92.7 LD |
| 2078-11-07 | Earth | 32690.43 | 27,493,422 km 71.5 LD |
| 2076-03-17 | Earth | 30523.85 | 16,724,555 km 43.5 LD |
| 2075-10-30 | Earth | 28557.20 | 34,778,627 km 90.5 LD |
| 2073-03-21 | Earth | 39927.27 | 15,879,184 km 41.3 LD |
| 2072-10-17 | Earth | 29458.25 | 46,954,133 km 122 LD |
| 2070-03-28 | Earth | 53057.43 | 35,581,189 km 92.6 LD |
| 2069-10-05 | Earth | 31491.57 | 59,843,352 km 156 LD |
| 2067-04-03 | Earth | 67888.47 | 58,406,290 km 152 LD |
| 2066-09-23 | Earth | 33388.17 | 71,608,816 km 186 LD |
| 2029-10-27 | Earth | 74461.47 | 73,851,509 km 192 LD |
| 2027-05-01 | Earth | 27927.97 | 71,080,637 km 185 LD |
| 2026-11-02 next | Earth | 58583.39 | 52,353,783 km 136 LD |
| 2024-04-10 | Earth | 26877.45 | 55,246,110 km 144 LD |
| 2023-11-07 | Earth | 43965.67 | 34,527,548 km 89.8 LD |
| 2021-03-21 | Earth | 26496.53 | 35,818,939 km 93.2 LD |
| 2020-11-06 | Earth | 32786.48 | 27,274,002 km 71.0 LD |
| 2018-03-18 | Earth | 30393.27 | 17,112,027 km 44.5 LD |
| 2017-10-29 | Earth | 28546.15 | 34,482,059 km 89.7 LD |
| 2015-03-22 | Earth | 39749.17 | 15,814,879 km 41.1 LD |
| 2014-10-18 | Earth | 29412.37 | 46,753,669 km 122 LD |
| 2012-03-27 | Earth | 52903.25 | 35,358,522 km 92.0 LD |
| 2011-10-05 | Earth | 31428.83 | 59,746,708 km 155 LD |
| 2009-04-03 | Earth | 67826.68 | 58,199,979 km 151 LD |
| 2008-09-23 | Earth | 33326.54 | 71,626,715 km 186 LD |
| 1971-10-27 | Earth | 74390.93 | 73,670,208 km 192 LD |
| 1969-04-30 | Earth | 27934.00 | 70,888,413 km 184 LD |
| 1968-11-01 | Earth | 58451.62 | 52,087,822 km 136 LD |
| 1966-04-10 | Earth | 26867.93 | 55,100,844 km 143 LD |
| 1965-11-06 | Earth | 43839.51 | 34,158,446 km 88.9 LD |
| 1963-03-21 | Earth | 26499.02 | 35,718,944 km 92.9 LD |
| 1962-11-06 | Earth | 32738.12 | 27,069,389 km 70.4 LD |
| 1960-03-17 | Earth | 30431.98 | 17,111,026 km 44.5 LD |
| 1959-10-30 | Earth | 28570.67 | 34,482,617 km 89.7 LD |
| 1957-03-21 | Earth | 39959.43 | 16,264,962 km 42.3 LD |
| 1956-10-17 | Earth | 29383.02 | 47,027,575 km 122 LD |
| 1954-03-27 | Earth | 53093.13 | 35,767,545 km 93.0 LD |
| 1953-10-04 | Earth | 31477.83 | 60,060,091 km 156 LD |
| 1951-04-03 | Earth | 68108.99 | 58,778,642 km 153 LD |
| 1950-09-22 | Earth | 33274.20 | 71,937,783 km 187 LD |
| 1913-10-26 | Earth | 74072.21 | 72,945,024 km 190 LD |
| 1911-04-30 | Earth | 28062.50 | 70,514,899 km 183 LD |
| 1910-11-01 | Earth | 58214.17 | 51,531,337 km 134 LD |
| 1908-04-09 | Earth | 26898.98 | 54,713,898 km 142 LD |
| 1907-11-06 | Earth | 43640.50 | 33,677,607 km 87.6 LD |
| 1905-03-21 | Earth | 26495.59 | 35,356,573 km 92.0 LD |
| 1904-11-05 | Earth | 32656.73 | 26,855,680 km 69.9 LD |
| 1902-03-17 | Earth | 30628.04 | 16,905,175 km 44.0 LD |
| 1901-10-28 | Earth | 28498.47 | 34,683,954 km 90.2 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-27T14:16:56.124360+00:00.