Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2015 HA10)

Designation: 2015 HA10 · NASA id: 3717039

Estimated diameter: 201 – 449 meters

≈ the Great Pyramid
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 20.61) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 16.7 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

173.7 megatonnes – 6,473 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period500.4 days (1.37 years)
Eccentricity.379894713475635 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.233543357208734 AU
Inclination19.77749366488536° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.764926756962149 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.702159957455319 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.21661 AU = 32,404,544 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude22.68137513682722°
Argument of perihelion346.766821501885°
Mean anomaly / motion136.0685783874022° / .7194033329576678°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.066 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2023-03-28 06:51:41
Observed2015-04-16 to 2023-03-27 (2902 day arc, 69 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty1 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 86 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Venus and Mars? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 68 of them were approaches to Earth, 12 of them were approaches to Venus and 6 of them were approaches to Mars.

This one’s path runs from 0.765 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.702 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 500.4 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.2166 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2030-12-17

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2200-10-06 Earth 55909.09 36,848,312 km
95.9 LD
2200-05-26 Earth 40675.09 74,118,958 km
193 LD
2196-06-25 Earth 62921.99 61,287,122 km
159 LD
2189-11-10 Earth 55073.18 33,268,096 km
86.5 LD
2189-10-21 Venus 46228.91 8,921,212 km
23.2 LD
2189-03-14 Mars 28044.77 9,724,393 km
25.3 LD
2185-08-04 Earth 45532.76 50,535,527 km
131 LD
2178-12-10 Earth 61164.54 44,963,486 km
117 LD
2174-09-15 Earth 54559.52 42,383,842 km
110 LD
2174-06-06 Earth 36335.86 66,083,949 km
172 LD
2167-12-31 Earth 81067.58 69,487,898 km
181 LD
2163-10-17 Earth 55779.84 34,115,307 km
88.7 LD
2159-08-31 Venus 45890.53 6,401,992 km
16.7 LD
2159-06-30 Earth 54333.39 55,803,300 km
145 LD
2152-11-15 Earth 55219.85 33,975,957 km
88.4 LD
2148-08-11 Earth 47188.29 49,790,034 km
130 LD
2141-12-11 Earth 61896.61 45,737,905 km
119 LD
2137-09-16 Earth 54620.11 42,155,961 km
110 LD
2137-06-05 Earth 36648.10 66,416,468 km
173 LD
2130-12-31 Earth 81143.57 69,362,573 km
180 LD
2129-07-06 Venus 46917.28 11,843,068 km
30.8 LD
2126-10-15 Earth 55786.24 34,518,288 km
89.8 LD
2122-06-27 Earth 58351.90 57,987,686 km
151 LD
2115-11-09 Earth 55058.58 32,901,085 km
85.6 LD
2111-09-10 Venus 47936.25 10,749,133 km
28.0 LD
2111-07-27 Earth 43517.66 51,206,012 km
133 LD
2108-04-19 Mars 28160.47 13,629,698 km
35.5 LD
2104-12-05 Earth 59381.56 42,070,328 km
109 LD
2100-09-09 Earth 53760.04 43,960,802 km
114 LD
2100-06-09 Earth 35203.96 63,879,257 km
166 LD
2093-12-26 Earth 76453.89 63,522,503 km
165 LD
2093-04-14 Mars 28225.31 10,079,400 km
26.2 LD
2089-10-08 Earth 55867.31 35,708,774 km
92.9 LD
2085-06-24 Earth 61448.32 60,035,687 km
156 LD
2081-07-16 Venus 46559.01 7,209,068 km
18.8 LD
2078-11-07 Earth 55031.08 32,751,222 km
85.2 LD
2074-07-31 Earth 44384.52 50,868,938 km
132 LD
2067-12-08 Earth 61301.13 44,562,125 km
116 LD
2063-09-13 Earth 54465.51 42,661,002 km
111 LD
2063-06-04 Earth 36631.67 65,756,673 km
171 LD
2056-12-29 Earth 81598.77 69,722,511 km
181 LD
2052-10-15 Earth 55721.17 34,080,186 km
88.7 LD
2051-05-28 Venus 49045.33 13,091,539 km
34.1 LD
2048-06-28 Earth 53428.64 55,208,541 km
144 LD
2041-11-19 Earth 55677.09 35,172,065 km
91.5 LD
2039-01-27 Venus 47199.04 13,095,740 km
34.1 LD
2037-08-21 Earth 49943.62 48,143,820 km
125 LD
2030-12-17 next Earth 68099.94 53,203,136 km
138 LD
2026-09-26 Earth 55625.41 38,850,386 km
101 LD
2026-05-26 Earth 39605.72 71,044,841 km
185 LD
2022-06-19 Earth 69891.22 66,595,935 km
173 LD
2015-10-29 Earth 55233.11 32,448,349 km
84.4 LD
2011-07-09 Earth 43210.63 51,923,081 km
135 LD
2008-12-08 Venus 45879.44 7,365,516 km
19.2 LD
2004-11-28 Earth 57531.41 38,609,392 km
100 LD
2000-08-30 Earth 52117.35 46,213,156 km
120 LD
2000-06-14 Earth 32865.61 60,542,889 km
157 LD
1997-05-01 Mars 28140.05 13,450,653 km
35.0 LD
1993-12-20 Earth 71885.22 57,593,896 km
150 LD
1989-09-30 Earth 55723.54 37,633,134 km
97.9 LD
1989-05-23 Earth 40505.16 72,777,483 km
189 LD
1985-06-20 Earth 66470.58 63,656,963 km
166 LD
1982-04-27 Mars 28327.78 10,117,853 km
26.3 LD
1978-10-31 Earth 55101.20 32,308,468 km
84.0 LD
1978-10-15 Venus 46466.25 10,786,693 km
28.1 LD
1974-07-07 Earth 43667.17 51,959,334 km
135 LD
1967-11-25 Earth 56675.42 36,944,670 km
96.1 LD
1963-08-24 Earth 50633.44 47,670,487 km
124 LD
1960-12-19 Venus 48585.84 11,965,991 km
31.1 LD
1956-12-16 Earth 68225.20 52,970,251 km
138 LD
1952-09-25 Earth 55522.85 39,229,964 km
102 LD
1952-05-26 Earth 39612.91 70,550,886 km
184 LD
1948-06-17 Earth 70951.00 67,474,213 km
176 LD
1941-10-23 Earth 55337.37 32,744,964 km
85.2 LD
1937-06-30 Earth 48557.33 53,080,410 km
138 LD
1930-11-20 Earth 55851.45 35,123,040 km
91.4 LD
1930-10-25 Venus 46306.68 6,501,412 km
16.9 LD
1926-08-21 Earth 49774.55 48,342,909 km
126 LD
1919-12-17 Earth 68643.87 53,343,968 km
139 LD
1915-09-26 Earth 55579.57 39,022,302 km
102 LD
1915-05-26 Earth 39792.83 70,849,159 km
184 LD
1911-06-18 Earth 69804.99 66,297,559 km
172 LD
1904-10-27 Earth 55213.75 32,355,095 km
84.2 LD
1901-06-02 Mars 28073.09 11,818,653 km
30.7 LD
1900-09-04 Venus 47436.82 9,217,415 km
24.0 LD
1900-07-03 Earth 44221.59 52,005,009 km
135 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-23T02:58:40.366632+00:00.