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Designation: 2015 HA10 · NASA id: 3717039
Estimated diameter: 201 – 449 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
173.7 megatonnes – 6,473 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 500.4 days (1.37 years) |
| Eccentricity | .379894713475635 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.233543357208734 AU |
| Inclination | 19.77749366488536° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .764926756962149 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.702159957455319 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.21661 AU = 32,404,544 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 22.68137513682722° |
| Argument of perihelion | 346.766821501885° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 136.0685783874022° / .7194033329576678°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.066 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-03-28 06:51:41 |
| Observed | 2015-04-16 to 2023-03-27 (2902 day arc, 69 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 1 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 86 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 68 of them were approaches to Earth, 12 of them were approaches to Venus and 6 of them were approaches to Mars.
This one’s path runs from 0.765 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.702 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 500.4 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.2166 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2030-12-17
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2200-10-06 | Earth | 55909.09 | 36,848,312 km 95.9 LD |
| 2200-05-26 | Earth | 40675.09 | 74,118,958 km 193 LD |
| 2196-06-25 | Earth | 62921.99 | 61,287,122 km 159 LD |
| 2189-11-10 | Earth | 55073.18 | 33,268,096 km 86.5 LD |
| 2189-10-21 | Venus | 46228.91 | 8,921,212 km 23.2 LD |
| 2189-03-14 | Mars | 28044.77 | 9,724,393 km 25.3 LD |
| 2185-08-04 | Earth | 45532.76 | 50,535,527 km 131 LD |
| 2178-12-10 | Earth | 61164.54 | 44,963,486 km 117 LD |
| 2174-09-15 | Earth | 54559.52 | 42,383,842 km 110 LD |
| 2174-06-06 | Earth | 36335.86 | 66,083,949 km 172 LD |
| 2167-12-31 | Earth | 81067.58 | 69,487,898 km 181 LD |
| 2163-10-17 | Earth | 55779.84 | 34,115,307 km 88.7 LD |
| 2159-08-31 | Venus | 45890.53 | 6,401,992 km 16.7 LD |
| 2159-06-30 | Earth | 54333.39 | 55,803,300 km 145 LD |
| 2152-11-15 | Earth | 55219.85 | 33,975,957 km 88.4 LD |
| 2148-08-11 | Earth | 47188.29 | 49,790,034 km 130 LD |
| 2141-12-11 | Earth | 61896.61 | 45,737,905 km 119 LD |
| 2137-09-16 | Earth | 54620.11 | 42,155,961 km 110 LD |
| 2137-06-05 | Earth | 36648.10 | 66,416,468 km 173 LD |
| 2130-12-31 | Earth | 81143.57 | 69,362,573 km 180 LD |
| 2129-07-06 | Venus | 46917.28 | 11,843,068 km 30.8 LD |
| 2126-10-15 | Earth | 55786.24 | 34,518,288 km 89.8 LD |
| 2122-06-27 | Earth | 58351.90 | 57,987,686 km 151 LD |
| 2115-11-09 | Earth | 55058.58 | 32,901,085 km 85.6 LD |
| 2111-09-10 | Venus | 47936.25 | 10,749,133 km 28.0 LD |
| 2111-07-27 | Earth | 43517.66 | 51,206,012 km 133 LD |
| 2108-04-19 | Mars | 28160.47 | 13,629,698 km 35.5 LD |
| 2104-12-05 | Earth | 59381.56 | 42,070,328 km 109 LD |
| 2100-09-09 | Earth | 53760.04 | 43,960,802 km 114 LD |
| 2100-06-09 | Earth | 35203.96 | 63,879,257 km 166 LD |
| 2093-12-26 | Earth | 76453.89 | 63,522,503 km 165 LD |
| 2093-04-14 | Mars | 28225.31 | 10,079,400 km 26.2 LD |
| 2089-10-08 | Earth | 55867.31 | 35,708,774 km 92.9 LD |
| 2085-06-24 | Earth | 61448.32 | 60,035,687 km 156 LD |
| 2081-07-16 | Venus | 46559.01 | 7,209,068 km 18.8 LD |
| 2078-11-07 | Earth | 55031.08 | 32,751,222 km 85.2 LD |
| 2074-07-31 | Earth | 44384.52 | 50,868,938 km 132 LD |
| 2067-12-08 | Earth | 61301.13 | 44,562,125 km 116 LD |
| 2063-09-13 | Earth | 54465.51 | 42,661,002 km 111 LD |
| 2063-06-04 | Earth | 36631.67 | 65,756,673 km 171 LD |
| 2056-12-29 | Earth | 81598.77 | 69,722,511 km 181 LD |
| 2052-10-15 | Earth | 55721.17 | 34,080,186 km 88.7 LD |
| 2051-05-28 | Venus | 49045.33 | 13,091,539 km 34.1 LD |
| 2048-06-28 | Earth | 53428.64 | 55,208,541 km 144 LD |
| 2041-11-19 | Earth | 55677.09 | 35,172,065 km 91.5 LD |
| 2039-01-27 | Venus | 47199.04 | 13,095,740 km 34.1 LD |
| 2037-08-21 | Earth | 49943.62 | 48,143,820 km 125 LD |
| 2030-12-17 next | Earth | 68099.94 | 53,203,136 km 138 LD |
| 2026-09-26 | Earth | 55625.41 | 38,850,386 km 101 LD |
| 2026-05-26 | Earth | 39605.72 | 71,044,841 km 185 LD |
| 2022-06-19 | Earth | 69891.22 | 66,595,935 km 173 LD |
| 2015-10-29 | Earth | 55233.11 | 32,448,349 km 84.4 LD |
| 2011-07-09 | Earth | 43210.63 | 51,923,081 km 135 LD |
| 2008-12-08 | Venus | 45879.44 | 7,365,516 km 19.2 LD |
| 2004-11-28 | Earth | 57531.41 | 38,609,392 km 100 LD |
| 2000-08-30 | Earth | 52117.35 | 46,213,156 km 120 LD |
| 2000-06-14 | Earth | 32865.61 | 60,542,889 km 157 LD |
| 1997-05-01 | Mars | 28140.05 | 13,450,653 km 35.0 LD |
| 1993-12-20 | Earth | 71885.22 | 57,593,896 km 150 LD |
| 1989-09-30 | Earth | 55723.54 | 37,633,134 km 97.9 LD |
| 1989-05-23 | Earth | 40505.16 | 72,777,483 km 189 LD |
| 1985-06-20 | Earth | 66470.58 | 63,656,963 km 166 LD |
| 1982-04-27 | Mars | 28327.78 | 10,117,853 km 26.3 LD |
| 1978-10-31 | Earth | 55101.20 | 32,308,468 km 84.0 LD |
| 1978-10-15 | Venus | 46466.25 | 10,786,693 km 28.1 LD |
| 1974-07-07 | Earth | 43667.17 | 51,959,334 km 135 LD |
| 1967-11-25 | Earth | 56675.42 | 36,944,670 km 96.1 LD |
| 1963-08-24 | Earth | 50633.44 | 47,670,487 km 124 LD |
| 1960-12-19 | Venus | 48585.84 | 11,965,991 km 31.1 LD |
| 1956-12-16 | Earth | 68225.20 | 52,970,251 km 138 LD |
| 1952-09-25 | Earth | 55522.85 | 39,229,964 km 102 LD |
| 1952-05-26 | Earth | 39612.91 | 70,550,886 km 184 LD |
| 1948-06-17 | Earth | 70951.00 | 67,474,213 km 176 LD |
| 1941-10-23 | Earth | 55337.37 | 32,744,964 km 85.2 LD |
| 1937-06-30 | Earth | 48557.33 | 53,080,410 km 138 LD |
| 1930-11-20 | Earth | 55851.45 | 35,123,040 km 91.4 LD |
| 1930-10-25 | Venus | 46306.68 | 6,501,412 km 16.9 LD |
| 1926-08-21 | Earth | 49774.55 | 48,342,909 km 126 LD |
| 1919-12-17 | Earth | 68643.87 | 53,343,968 km 139 LD |
| 1915-09-26 | Earth | 55579.57 | 39,022,302 km 102 LD |
| 1915-05-26 | Earth | 39792.83 | 70,849,159 km 184 LD |
| 1911-06-18 | Earth | 69804.99 | 66,297,559 km 172 LD |
| 1904-10-27 | Earth | 55213.75 | 32,355,095 km 84.2 LD |
| 1901-06-02 | Mars | 28073.09 | 11,818,653 km 30.7 LD |
| 1900-09-04 | Venus | 47436.82 | 9,217,415 km 24.0 LD |
| 1900-07-03 | Earth | 44221.59 | 52,005,009 km 135 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-23T02:58:40.366632+00:00.