Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2015 HR11)

Designation: 2015 HR11 · NASA id: 3717082 · Potentially Hazardous

Estimated diameter: 175 – 391 meters

≈ the Great Pyramid
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 20.91) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 8.5 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

123.4 megatonnes – 4,599 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period488.6 days (1.34 years)
Eccentricity.1692646110240088 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.214096437666835 AU
Inclination31.16122828371593° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance1.008592876399523 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.419599998934146 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.02095 AU = 3,133,402 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude210.6876267574997°
Argument of perihelion198.0573667069602°
Mean anomaly / motion106.2980064502574° / .7367570438266986°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.101 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2023-04-26 07:06:06
Observed2015-03-29 to 2023-04-25 (2949 day arc, 70 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 77 total.

an approach today (2026-10-17) — next after that: 2027-03-27

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2197-04-14 Earth 55933.93 59,608,202 km
155 LD
2193-04-17 Earth 55841.90 59,228,987 km
154 LD
2189-04-20 Earth 55879.90 59,717,243 km
155 LD
2185-04-23 Earth 55855.18 61,034,450 km
159 LD
2181-04-26 Earth 55825.29 63,098,460 km
164 LD
2177-04-29 Earth 55855.10 65,818,015 km
171 LD
2173-05-03 Earth 55746.07 69,063,144 km
180 LD
2169-05-06 Earth 55586.05 72,697,975 km
189 LD
2153-11-11 Earth 73860.23 68,321,313 km
178 LD
2149-11-08 Earth 69013.44 55,100,012 km
143 LD
2145-11-04 Earth 65037.33 42,094,905 km
110 LD
2141-11-01 Earth 62266.98 29,626,891 km
77.1 LD
2137-10-30 Earth 60616.92 17,985,006 km
46.8 LD
2133-10-27 Earth 60075.27 7,754,449 km
20.2 LD
2129-10-25 Earth 60248.04 3,282,587 km
8.54 LD
2125-10-22 Earth 61138.55 11,264,202 km
29.3 LD
2121-10-19 Earth 63131.48 22,828,942 km
59.4 LD
2118-03-31 Earth 56565.57 70,818,731 km
184 LD
2117-10-16 Earth 66410.07 35,420,156 km
92.1 LD
2114-04-03 Earth 56361.42 67,124,807 km
175 LD
2113-10-12 Earth 70744.80 48,461,135 km
126 LD
2110-04-06 Earth 56133.65 64,014,634 km
167 LD
2109-10-09 Earth 76072.91 61,890,791 km
161 LD
2106-04-10 Earth 56038.25 61,624,512 km
160 LD
2102-04-13 Earth 55949.28 60,055,982 km
156 LD
2098-04-15 Earth 55850.47 59,404,713 km
155 LD
2094-04-18 Earth 55891.49 59,687,390 km
155 LD
2090-04-21 Earth 55859.61 60,861,966 km
158 LD
2086-04-25 Earth 55835.97 62,848,349 km
163 LD
2082-04-28 Earth 55864.81 65,549,276 km
171 LD
2078-05-02 Earth 55751.09 68,839,904 km
179 LD
2074-05-05 Earth 55602.73 72,582,398 km
189 LD
2058-11-09 Earth 72666.05 64,899,423 km
169 LD
2054-11-06 Earth 67858.20 51,192,466 km
133 LD
2050-11-02 Earth 64041.35 37,724,892 km
98.1 LD
2046-10-30 Earth 61558.24 24,900,248 km
64.8 LD
2042-10-27 Earth 60291.33 13,110,503 km
34.1 LD
2038-10-25 Earth 60139.76 3,948,987 km
10.3 LD
2034-10-23 Earth 60488.13 5,592,280 km
14.5 LD
2030-10-20 Earth 61697.25 15,132,697 km
39.4 LD
2027-03-27 next Earth 56634.73 74,208,728 km
193 LD
2026-10-17 today Earth 63958.36 26,601,231 km
69.2 LD
2023-03-30 Earth 56478.05 70,343,157 km
183 LD
2022-10-14 Earth 67428.06 38,968,987 km
101 LD
2019-04-03 Earth 56300.98 66,824,886 km
174 LD
2018-10-10 Earth 71885.05 51,715,342 km
135 LD
2015-04-06 Earth 56103.93 63,867,557 km
166 LD
2014-10-07 Earth 77241.33 64,852,661 km
169 LD
2011-04-09 Earth 56022.41 61,596,829 km
160 LD
2007-04-12 Earth 55939.98 60,110,867 km
156 LD
2003-04-15 Earth 55851.22 59,492,573 km
155 LD
1999-04-18 Earth 55898.21 59,762,858 km
155 LD
1995-04-21 Earth 55863.00 60,877,646 km
158 LD
1991-04-25 Earth 55838.56 62,772,600 km
163 LD
1987-04-28 Earth 55874.20 65,347,268 km
170 LD
1983-05-01 Earth 55762.50 68,490,104 km
178 LD
1979-05-05 Earth 55635.71 72,050,655 km
187 LD
1963-11-09 Earth 73433.99 66,514,469 km
173 LD
1959-11-06 Earth 68645.85 53,233,256 km
138 LD
1955-11-03 Earth 64746.34 40,161,876 km
104 LD
1951-10-31 Earth 62083.61 27,670,650 km
72.0 LD
1947-10-28 Earth 60555.06 16,066,775 km
41.8 LD
1943-10-25 Earth 60120.78 6,154,933 km
16.0 LD
1939-10-23 Earth 60335.93 3,811,463 km
9.92 LD
1935-10-21 Earth 61377.34 13,108,706 km
34.1 LD
1931-10-18 Earth 63576.77 25,136,106 km
65.4 LD
1928-03-29 Earth 56457.38 71,258,306 km
185 LD
1927-10-14 Earth 67088.99 38,086,492 km
99.1 LD
1924-04-01 Earth 56282.77 67,504,848 km
176 LD
1923-10-11 Earth 71690.51 51,424,342 km
134 LD
1920-04-04 Earth 56096.13 64,340,615 km
167 LD
1919-10-07 Earth 77227.42 65,068,007 km
169 LD
1916-04-08 Earth 56021.67 61,912,696 km
161 LD
1912-04-11 Earth 55935.15 60,310,595 km
157 LD
1908-04-14 Earth 55860.79 59,642,692 km
155 LD
1904-04-17 Earth 55897.59 59,907,197 km
156 LD
1900-04-21 Earth 55866.30 61,083,010 km
159 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-12T16:22:14.087724+00:00.