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Designation: 2015 HR11 · NASA id: 3717082
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 175 – 391 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
123.4 megatonnes – 4,599 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 488.6 days (1.34 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1692646110240088 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.214096437666835 AU |
| Inclination | 31.16122828371593° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | 1.008592876399523 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.419599998934146 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.02095 AU = 3,133,402 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 210.6876267574997° |
| Argument of perihelion | 198.0573667069602° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 106.2980064502574° / .7367570438266986°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.101 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-04-26 07:06:06 |
| Observed | 2015-03-29 to 2023-04-25 (2949 day arc, 70 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 77 total.
an approach today (2026-10-17) — next after that: 2027-03-27
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2197-04-14 | Earth | 55933.93 | 59,608,202 km 155 LD |
| 2193-04-17 | Earth | 55841.90 | 59,228,987 km 154 LD |
| 2189-04-20 | Earth | 55879.90 | 59,717,243 km 155 LD |
| 2185-04-23 | Earth | 55855.18 | 61,034,450 km 159 LD |
| 2181-04-26 | Earth | 55825.29 | 63,098,460 km 164 LD |
| 2177-04-29 | Earth | 55855.10 | 65,818,015 km 171 LD |
| 2173-05-03 | Earth | 55746.07 | 69,063,144 km 180 LD |
| 2169-05-06 | Earth | 55586.05 | 72,697,975 km 189 LD |
| 2153-11-11 | Earth | 73860.23 | 68,321,313 km 178 LD |
| 2149-11-08 | Earth | 69013.44 | 55,100,012 km 143 LD |
| 2145-11-04 | Earth | 65037.33 | 42,094,905 km 110 LD |
| 2141-11-01 | Earth | 62266.98 | 29,626,891 km 77.1 LD |
| 2137-10-30 | Earth | 60616.92 | 17,985,006 km 46.8 LD |
| 2133-10-27 | Earth | 60075.27 | 7,754,449 km 20.2 LD |
| 2129-10-25 | Earth | 60248.04 | 3,282,587 km 8.54 LD |
| 2125-10-22 | Earth | 61138.55 | 11,264,202 km 29.3 LD |
| 2121-10-19 | Earth | 63131.48 | 22,828,942 km 59.4 LD |
| 2118-03-31 | Earth | 56565.57 | 70,818,731 km 184 LD |
| 2117-10-16 | Earth | 66410.07 | 35,420,156 km 92.1 LD |
| 2114-04-03 | Earth | 56361.42 | 67,124,807 km 175 LD |
| 2113-10-12 | Earth | 70744.80 | 48,461,135 km 126 LD |
| 2110-04-06 | Earth | 56133.65 | 64,014,634 km 167 LD |
| 2109-10-09 | Earth | 76072.91 | 61,890,791 km 161 LD |
| 2106-04-10 | Earth | 56038.25 | 61,624,512 km 160 LD |
| 2102-04-13 | Earth | 55949.28 | 60,055,982 km 156 LD |
| 2098-04-15 | Earth | 55850.47 | 59,404,713 km 155 LD |
| 2094-04-18 | Earth | 55891.49 | 59,687,390 km 155 LD |
| 2090-04-21 | Earth | 55859.61 | 60,861,966 km 158 LD |
| 2086-04-25 | Earth | 55835.97 | 62,848,349 km 163 LD |
| 2082-04-28 | Earth | 55864.81 | 65,549,276 km 171 LD |
| 2078-05-02 | Earth | 55751.09 | 68,839,904 km 179 LD |
| 2074-05-05 | Earth | 55602.73 | 72,582,398 km 189 LD |
| 2058-11-09 | Earth | 72666.05 | 64,899,423 km 169 LD |
| 2054-11-06 | Earth | 67858.20 | 51,192,466 km 133 LD |
| 2050-11-02 | Earth | 64041.35 | 37,724,892 km 98.1 LD |
| 2046-10-30 | Earth | 61558.24 | 24,900,248 km 64.8 LD |
| 2042-10-27 | Earth | 60291.33 | 13,110,503 km 34.1 LD |
| 2038-10-25 | Earth | 60139.76 | 3,948,987 km 10.3 LD |
| 2034-10-23 | Earth | 60488.13 | 5,592,280 km 14.5 LD |
| 2030-10-20 | Earth | 61697.25 | 15,132,697 km 39.4 LD |
| 2027-03-27 next | Earth | 56634.73 | 74,208,728 km 193 LD |
| 2026-10-17 today | Earth | 63958.36 | 26,601,231 km 69.2 LD |
| 2023-03-30 | Earth | 56478.05 | 70,343,157 km 183 LD |
| 2022-10-14 | Earth | 67428.06 | 38,968,987 km 101 LD |
| 2019-04-03 | Earth | 56300.98 | 66,824,886 km 174 LD |
| 2018-10-10 | Earth | 71885.05 | 51,715,342 km 135 LD |
| 2015-04-06 | Earth | 56103.93 | 63,867,557 km 166 LD |
| 2014-10-07 | Earth | 77241.33 | 64,852,661 km 169 LD |
| 2011-04-09 | Earth | 56022.41 | 61,596,829 km 160 LD |
| 2007-04-12 | Earth | 55939.98 | 60,110,867 km 156 LD |
| 2003-04-15 | Earth | 55851.22 | 59,492,573 km 155 LD |
| 1999-04-18 | Earth | 55898.21 | 59,762,858 km 155 LD |
| 1995-04-21 | Earth | 55863.00 | 60,877,646 km 158 LD |
| 1991-04-25 | Earth | 55838.56 | 62,772,600 km 163 LD |
| 1987-04-28 | Earth | 55874.20 | 65,347,268 km 170 LD |
| 1983-05-01 | Earth | 55762.50 | 68,490,104 km 178 LD |
| 1979-05-05 | Earth | 55635.71 | 72,050,655 km 187 LD |
| 1963-11-09 | Earth | 73433.99 | 66,514,469 km 173 LD |
| 1959-11-06 | Earth | 68645.85 | 53,233,256 km 138 LD |
| 1955-11-03 | Earth | 64746.34 | 40,161,876 km 104 LD |
| 1951-10-31 | Earth | 62083.61 | 27,670,650 km 72.0 LD |
| 1947-10-28 | Earth | 60555.06 | 16,066,775 km 41.8 LD |
| 1943-10-25 | Earth | 60120.78 | 6,154,933 km 16.0 LD |
| 1939-10-23 | Earth | 60335.93 | 3,811,463 km 9.92 LD |
| 1935-10-21 | Earth | 61377.34 | 13,108,706 km 34.1 LD |
| 1931-10-18 | Earth | 63576.77 | 25,136,106 km 65.4 LD |
| 1928-03-29 | Earth | 56457.38 | 71,258,306 km 185 LD |
| 1927-10-14 | Earth | 67088.99 | 38,086,492 km 99.1 LD |
| 1924-04-01 | Earth | 56282.77 | 67,504,848 km 176 LD |
| 1923-10-11 | Earth | 71690.51 | 51,424,342 km 134 LD |
| 1920-04-04 | Earth | 56096.13 | 64,340,615 km 167 LD |
| 1919-10-07 | Earth | 77227.42 | 65,068,007 km 169 LD |
| 1916-04-08 | Earth | 56021.67 | 61,912,696 km 161 LD |
| 1912-04-11 | Earth | 55935.15 | 60,310,595 km 157 LD |
| 1908-04-14 | Earth | 55860.79 | 59,642,692 km 155 LD |
| 1904-04-17 | Earth | 55897.59 | 59,907,197 km 156 LD |
| 1900-04-21 | Earth | 55866.30 | 61,083,010 km 159 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-12T16:22:14.087724+00:00.