← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived
Designation: 2015 KB57 · NASA id: 3719730
Estimated diameter: 92 – 206 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
34.7 megatonnes – 1,292 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU
| Orbital period | 335.3 days (0.92 years) |
| Eccentricity | .6074630962899754 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | .9445868820763894 AU |
| Inclination | 29.67235232904356° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .370785209975372 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.518388554177407 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.14029 AU = 20,987,684 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 239.6108307347766° |
| Argument of perihelion | 208.8361856613935° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 249.8386970188349° / 1.073596801229536°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.097 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 13:44:46 |
| Observed | 2015-05-20 to 2016-06-10 (387 day arc, 32 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 3 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 86 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 73 of them were approaches to Earth and 13 of them were approaches to Merc.
This one’s path runs from 0.371 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.518 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 335.3 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.1403 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2027-05-19
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2195-05-17 | Earth | 62437.98 | 52,768,384 km 137 LD |
| 2194-05-11 | Earth | 82968.11 | 22,442,737 km 58.4 LD |
| 2187-08-19 | Earth | 68523.88 | 74,535,171 km 194 LD |
| 2184-05-20 | Earth | 62221.36 | 61,104,148 km 159 LD |
| 2183-05-10 | Earth | 75224.46 | 20,850,220 km 54.2 LD |
| 2183-03-01 | Merc | 141755.28 | 13,728,996 km 35.7 LD |
| 2182-05-23 | Earth | 119313.89 | 65,107,312 km 169 LD |
| 2173-05-25 | Earth | 62350.98 | 68,480,603 km 178 LD |
| 2172-05-09 | Earth | 69042.29 | 27,049,959 km 70.4 LD |
| 2171-05-20 | Earth | 108802.66 | 51,870,688 km 135 LD |
| 2168-06-21 | Merc | 140069.34 | 12,902,752 km 33.6 LD |
| 2161-05-11 | Earth | 64920.38 | 36,962,744 km 96.2 LD |
| 2160-05-15 | Earth | 98309.90 | 38,729,606 km 101 LD |
| 2153-10-12 | Merc | 138514.76 | 12,257,901 km 31.9 LD |
| 2150-05-14 | Earth | 62998.50 | 46,527,748 km 121 LD |
| 2149-05-12 | Earth | 89025.87 | 27,999,494 km 72.8 LD |
| 2139-05-18 | Earth | 62317.64 | 55,317,361 km 144 LD |
| 2139-02-02 | Merc | 135365.70 | 11,625,004 km 30.2 LD |
| 2138-05-10 | Earth | 80563.41 | 21,295,637 km 55.4 LD |
| 2137-05-26 | Earth | 126621.17 | 74,277,022 km 193 LD |
| 2131-08-16 | Earth | 71028.12 | 74,616,240 km 194 LD |
| 2128-05-21 | Earth | 62274.17 | 63,340,450 km 165 LD |
| 2127-05-09 | Earth | 73206.41 | 22,247,699 km 57.9 LD |
| 2126-05-22 | Earth | 116130.44 | 61,185,478 km 159 LD |
| 2124-05-25 | Merc | 133948.91 | 11,978,692 km 31.2 LD |
| 2117-05-26 | Earth | 62492.25 | 70,336,377 km 183 LD |
| 2116-05-09 | Earth | 67689.85 | 29,766,251 km 77.4 LD |
| 2115-05-18 | Earth | 105731.04 | 48,160,178 km 125 LD |
| 2109-09-15 | Merc | 133192.53 | 12,497,406 km 32.5 LD |
| 2105-05-11 | Earth | 64250.38 | 39,857,548 km 104 LD |
| 2104-05-14 | Earth | 95329.72 | 35,396,774 km 92.1 LD |
| 2095-01-05 | Merc | 132592.81 | 13,219,312 km 34.4 LD |
| 2094-05-14 | Earth | 62767.17 | 49,520,390 km 129 LD |
| 2093-05-10 | Earth | 86021.76 | 25,361,081 km 66.0 LD |
| 2083-05-18 | Earth | 62353.21 | 57,780,178 km 150 LD |
| 2082-05-09 | Earth | 78191.54 | 20,906,573 km 54.4 LD |
| 2081-05-23 | Earth | 123443.38 | 70,584,000 km 184 LD |
| 2072-05-21 | Earth | 62391.68 | 65,283,597 km 170 LD |
| 2071-05-08 | Earth | 71513.76 | 24,032,769 km 62.5 LD |
| 2070-05-19 | Earth | 113281.54 | 57,808,490 km 150 LD |
| 2061-05-26 | Earth | 62570.13 | 71,960,883 km 187 LD |
| 2060-05-08 | Earth | 66588.81 | 32,425,857 km 84.4 LD |
| 2059-05-16 | Earth | 103004.05 | 44,890,928 km 117 LD |
| 2049-05-11 | Earth | 63725.19 | 42,504,940 km 111 LD |
| 2048-05-12 | Earth | 92778.27 | 32,587,305 km 84.8 LD |
| 2038-05-15 | Earth | 62547.15 | 52,053,549 km 135 LD |
| 2037-05-09 | Earth | 83527.70 | 23,542,466 km 61.2 LD |
| 2031-09-01 | Merc | 142233.31 | 13,896,108 km 36.2 LD |
| 2027-05-19 next | Earth | 62283.25 | 59,907,541 km 156 LD |
| 2026-05-08 | Earth | 76121.21 | 21,218,745 km 55.2 LD |
| 2025-05-22 | Earth | 120560.82 | 67,117,703 km 175 LD |
| 2016-12-22 | Merc | 137819.66 | 12,041,552 km 31.3 LD |
| 2016-05-22 | Earth | 62384.87 | 67,049,856 km 174 LD |
| 2015-05-08 | Earth | 69944.68 | 26,077,327 km 67.8 LD |
| 2014-05-18 | Earth | 110391.11 | 54,415,888 km 142 LD |
| 2005-05-27 | Earth | 62616.53 | 73,501,799 km 191 LD |
| 2004-05-09 | Earth | 65575.66 | 35,144,555 km 91.4 LD |
| 2003-05-15 | Earth | 100122.92 | 41,597,738 km 108 LD |
| 2002-04-14 | Merc | 136329.57 | 11,742,347 km 30.5 LD |
| 1993-05-12 | Earth | 63294.40 | 45,034,613 km 117 LD |
| 1992-05-11 | Earth | 90294.34 | 30,062,417 km 78.2 LD |
| 1987-08-05 | Merc | 135545.85 | 11,754,527 km 30.6 LD |
| 1982-05-16 | Earth | 62458.09 | 54,418,748 km 142 LD |
| 1981-05-08 | Earth | 81242.67 | 22,346,253 km 58.1 LD |
| 1974-08-14 | Earth | 70017.28 | 74,798,123 km 195 LD |
| 1972-11-25 | Merc | 134008.87 | 12,229,990 km 31.8 LD |
| 1971-05-20 | Earth | 62383.36 | 62,221,206 km 162 LD |
| 1970-05-08 | Earth | 74050.64 | 22,273,933 km 57.9 LD |
| 1969-05-20 | Earth | 117398.58 | 63,295,632 km 165 LD |
| 1960-05-23 | Earth | 62552.74 | 68,902,494 km 179 LD |
| 1959-05-08 | Earth | 68572.81 | 28,527,113 km 74.2 LD |
| 1958-05-17 | Earth | 107501.68 | 50,936,720 km 133 LD |
| 1958-03-18 | Merc | 132397.13 | 14,309,801 km 37.2 LD |
| 1948-05-09 | Earth | 64865.53 | 37,915,716 km 98.6 LD |
| 1947-05-13 | Earth | 97290.57 | 38,398,277 km 99.9 LD |
| 1937-05-12 | Earth | 63046.24 | 47,660,731 km 124 LD |
| 1936-05-10 | Earth | 87618.14 | 27,610,432 km 71.8 LD |
| 1926-05-16 | Earth | 62449.77 | 56,598,171 km 147 LD |
| 1925-05-08 | Earth | 79028.65 | 21,752,063 km 56.6 LD |
| 1924-05-22 | Earth | 124429.63 | 72,299,180 km 188 LD |
| 1915-05-21 | Earth | 62421.58 | 64,246,926 km 167 LD |
| 1914-05-07 | Earth | 72164.32 | 23,822,441 km 62.0 LD |
| 1913-05-19 | Earth | 114285.78 | 59,607,376 km 155 LD |
| 1904-05-24 | Earth | 62582.75 | 70,626,415 km 184 LD |
| 1903-05-08 | Earth | 67280.60 | 31,097,763 km 80.9 LD |
| 1902-05-15 | Earth | 104593.66 | 47,457,798 km 123 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T21:01:27.179996+00:00.