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Designation: 2015 LJ · NASA id: 3720918
Estimated diameter: 31 – 68 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
107 kilotonnes – 4.0 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: AMO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 1221 Amor
1.017 AU < q (perihelion) < 1.3 AU
| Orbital period | 499.3 days (1.37 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1520527932568545 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.231703585580237 AU |
| Inclination | 2.226117990054775° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | 1.044419614928279 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.418987556232195 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.04676 AU = 6,995,900 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 188.1209036375402° |
| Argument of perihelion | 103.8294050297026° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 206.3792809095843° / .7210157727966268°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.186 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 13:50:53 |
| Observed | 2015-04-25 to 2015-09-12 (140 day arc, 123 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 4 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 73 total.
next approach: 2026-11-01
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2119-12-02 | Earth | 22395.83 | 57,281,597 km 149 LD |
| 2116-01-26 | Earth | 25897.99 | 65,014,345 km 169 LD |
| 2112-08-27 | Earth | 43963.58 | 53,237,207 km 138 LD |
| 2112-03-30 | Earth | 15914.36 | 44,048,793 km 115 LD |
| 2108-10-17 | Earth | 12602.02 | 38,587,340 km 100 LD |
| 2108-06-07 | Earth | 35290.75 | 41,298,336 km 107 LD |
| 2104-12-27 | Earth | 25514.75 | 64,240,685 km 167 LD |
| 2101-02-20 | Earth | 23481.23 | 59,509,226 km 155 LD |
| 2097-08-06 | Earth | 12827.30 | 10,738,958 km 27.9 LD |
| 2093-11-19 | Earth | 20277.84 | 52,721,598 km 137 LD |
| 2090-01-11 | Earth | 26002.44 | 65,136,123 km 169 LD |
| 2086-03-05 | Earth | 20977.11 | 54,026,852 km 141 LD |
| 2082-07-04 | Earth | 8524.64 | 8,193,902 km 21.3 LD |
| 2078-12-04 | Earth | 23038.73 | 58,650,674 km 153 LD |
| 2075-01-27 | Earth | 25715.25 | 64,612,523 km 168 LD |
| 2071-08-23 | Earth | 38964.56 | 46,147,373 km 120 LD |
| 2071-04-05 | Earth | 14169.98 | 40,949,325 km 107 LD |
| 2067-10-25 | Earth | 14604.59 | 42,075,983 km 109 LD |
| 2067-06-03 | Earth | 40452.37 | 48,471,798 km 126 LD |
| 2063-12-30 | Earth | 25785.05 | 64,832,551 km 169 LD |
| 2060-02-23 | Earth | 22796.09 | 58,033,409 km 151 LD |
| 2056-07-25 | Earth | 8213.81 | 7,174,416 km 18.7 LD |
| 2052-11-25 | Earth | 21633.01 | 55,562,893 km 145 LD |
| 2049-01-17 | Earth | 25994.32 | 65,208,707 km 170 LD |
| 2045-08-30 | Earth | 54052.65 | 67,808,796 km 176 LD |
| 2045-03-15 | Earth | 18767.06 | 49,493,995 km 129 LD |
| 2041-09-10 | Earth | 4363.36 | 26,544,440 km 69.1 LD |
| 2041-06-13 | Earth | 21538.65 | 22,333,159 km 58.1 LD |
| 2037-12-12 | Earth | 24320.98 | 61,444,138 km 160 LD |
| 2034-02-03 | Earth | 25049.68 | 63,103,675 km 164 LD |
| 2030-08-19 | Earth | 30765.57 | 34,494,323 km 89.7 LD |
| 2030-04-18 | Earth | 10487.34 | 34,954,398 km 90.9 LD |
| 2026-11-01 next | Earth | 16636.55 | 45,673,391 km 119 LD |
| 2026-05-30 | Earth | 46413.97 | 56,997,351 km 148 LD |
| 2023-01-01 | Earth | 25881.20 | 64,975,963 km 169 LD |
| 2019-02-24 | Earth | 22439.94 | 57,269,971 km 149 LD |
| 2015-07-26 | Earth | 8343.73 | 7,294,560 km 19.0 LD |
| 2011-11-22 | Earth | 21046.58 | 54,222,367 km 141 LD |
| 2008-01-12 | Earth | 26040.41 | 65,089,732 km 169 LD |
| 2004-03-05 | Earth | 20458.70 | 53,047,941 km 138 LD |
| 2000-06-26 | Earth | 10205.90 | 9,326,544 km 24.3 LD |
| 1996-12-03 | Earth | 23169.21 | 58,963,112 km 153 LD |
| 1993-01-26 | Earth | 25709.71 | 64,487,344 km 168 LD |
| 1989-08-21 | Earth | 38385.28 | 45,339,609 km 118 LD |
| 1989-04-04 | Earth | 13951.50 | 40,560,579 km 106 LD |
| 1985-10-23 | Earth | 14726.03 | 42,155,438 km 110 LD |
| 1985-05-31 | Earth | 40622.60 | 48,729,280 km 127 LD |
| 1981-12-28 | Earth | 25824.16 | 64,755,535 km 168 LD |
| 1978-02-20 | Earth | 22815.94 | 58,214,501 km 151 LD |
| 1974-07-26 | Earth | 8716.34 | 7,600,054 km 19.8 LD |
| 1970-11-21 | Earth | 21114.12 | 54,421,989 km 142 LD |
| 1967-01-12 | Earth | 26065.60 | 65,156,618 km 170 LD |
| 1963-03-07 | Earth | 20001.78 | 52,158,444 km 136 LD |
| 1959-06-19 | Earth | 13575.90 | 12,472,705 km 32.4 LD |
| 1955-12-05 | Earth | 23546.04 | 59,774,046 km 155 LD |
| 1952-01-28 | Earth | 25555.49 | 64,116,647 km 167 LD |
| 1948-08-19 | Earth | 35954.04 | 41,841,749 km 109 LD |
| 1948-04-06 | Earth | 12951.42 | 38,841,271 km 101 LD |
| 1944-10-24 | Earth | 15452.11 | 43,394,931 km 113 LD |
| 1944-05-29 | Earth | 42588.00 | 51,564,205 km 134 LD |
| 1940-12-28 | Earth | 25888.64 | 64,866,927 km 169 LD |
| 1937-02-20 | Earth | 22651.94 | 57,838,671 km 150 LD |
| 1933-07-22 | Earth | 8154.28 | 7,420,716 km 19.3 LD |
| 1929-11-21 | Earth | 21251.54 | 54,751,803 km 142 LD |
| 1926-01-12 | Earth | 26068.55 | 65,164,894 km 170 LD |
| 1922-08-29 | Earth | 58658.62 | 74,484,744 km 194 LD |
| 1922-03-07 | Earth | 19751.99 | 51,642,178 km 134 LD |
| 1914-12-05 | Earth | 23644.98 | 60,019,990 km 156 LD |
| 1911-01-27 | Earth | 25494.49 | 63,998,157 km 166 LD |
| 1907-08-19 | Earth | 35789.63 | 41,579,066 km 108 LD |
| 1907-04-07 | Earth | 12840.31 | 38,714,170 km 101 LD |
| 1903-10-24 | Earth | 15421.00 | 43,217,881 km 112 LD |
| 1903-05-30 | Earth | 42340.40 | 51,209,577 km 133 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-27T01:30:39.968439+00:00.