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Designation: 2015 SY16 · NASA id: 3728857
· Potentially Hazardous
Estimated diameter: 128 – 287 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
41.1 megatonnes – 1,531 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 506.2 days (1.39 years) |
| Eccentricity | .4988671575622107 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.243037887675866 AU |
| Inclination | 5.26619225182677° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .6229271099088722 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.86314866544286 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.04424 AU = 6,618,195 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 294.4632997678974° |
| Argument of perihelion | 305.7949199511814° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 177.9754734479946° / .7111767084700148°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.030 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-03-01 06:03:08 |
| Observed | 2015-09-23 to 2022-09-29 (2563 day arc, 81 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 142 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 100 of them were approaches to Earth, 36 of them were approaches to Venus and 6 of them were approaches to Mars.
This one’s path runs from 0.623 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.863 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 506.2 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0442 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2029-05-04
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2198-08-03 | Earth | 37557.89 | 38,546,561 km 100 LD |
| 2195-08-23 | Venus | 51076.54 | 15,615,308 km 40.6 LD |
| 2194-03-26 | Earth | 38746.09 | 43,469,986 km 113 LD |
| 2191-09-16 | Earth | 85454.82 | 41,287,770 km 107 LD |
| 2190-02-11 | Venus | 45582.18 | 15,587,297 km 40.5 LD |
| 2187-06-06 | Earth | 60071.61 | 58,299,914 km 152 LD |
| 2184-08-05 | Venus | 42270.36 | 16,567,817 km 43.1 LD |
| 2183-02-09 | Earth | 68014.12 | 16,852,209 km 43.8 LD |
| 2180-08-24 | Earth | 43295.28 | 21,857,148 km 56.9 LD |
| 2179-01-26 | Venus | 41794.80 | 17,244,727 km 44.9 LD |
| 2176-04-13 | Earth | 49158.04 | 51,323,110 km 134 LD |
| 2176-02-04 | Earth | 32004.49 | 61,377,347 km 160 LD |
| 2173-09-20 | Earth | 95996.67 | 55,363,862 km 144 LD |
| 2173-07-16 | Venus | 41864.54 | 17,545,098 km 45.6 LD |
| 2169-06-15 | Earth | 57743.43 | 56,608,056 km 147 LD |
| 2168-01-04 | Venus | 42169.56 | 17,862,659 km 46.5 LD |
| 2165-02-12 | Earth | 60236.99 | 8,350,816 km 21.7 LD |
| 2162-08-29 | Earth | 49338.42 | 14,533,303 km 37.8 LD |
| 2162-06-22 | Venus | 42164.89 | 17,875,215 km 46.5 LD |
| 2158-04-20 | Earth | 52100.05 | 53,321,355 km 139 LD |
| 2158-01-30 | Earth | 34051.03 | 66,257,209 km 172 LD |
| 2156-12-04 | Venus | 41759.97 | 17,423,051 km 45.3 LD |
| 2156-08-01 | Mars | 44109.83 | 1,972,382 km 5.13 LD |
| 2155-09-21 | Earth | 98939.37 | 59,323,502 km 154 LD |
| 2151-06-16 | Earth | 57586.43 | 56,536,134 km 147 LD |
| 2151-05-17 | Venus | 42223.24 | 16,508,926 km 42.9 LD |
| 2147-02-11 | Earth | 63047.47 | 10,985,474 km 28.6 LD |
| 2145-10-27 | Venus | 45660.37 | 15,534,830 km 40.4 LD |
| 2144-08-25 | Earth | 44960.62 | 19,600,036 km 51.0 LD |
| 2140-04-08 | Earth | 46569.11 | 49,388,054 km 128 LD |
| 2140-04-07 | Venus | 55709.65 | 16,660,412 km 43.3 LD |
| 2140-02-08 | Earth | 29907.02 | 57,323,254 km 149 LD |
| 2137-09-16 | Earth | 89186.75 | 46,192,392 km 120 LD |
| 2133-06-01 | Earth | 60491.19 | 58,570,055 km 152 LD |
| 2130-04-03 | Mars | 44727.54 | 3,347,904 km 8.71 LD |
| 2129-02-04 | Earth | 80124.60 | 32,663,129 km 85.0 LD |
| 2126-07-28 | Earth | 39617.87 | 41,153,559 km 107 LD |
| 2122-02-24 | Earth | 37559.49 | 27,851,620 km 72.5 LD |
| 2119-09-07 | Earth | 67436.55 | 17,811,382 km 46.3 LD |
| 2115-05-07 | Earth | 58381.32 | 57,368,144 km 149 LD |
| 2112-09-25 | Earth | 110121.13 | 74,096,420 km 193 LD |
| 2111-01-26 | Earth | 103616.82 | 63,835,333 km 166 LD |
| 2108-09-19 | Earth | 32955.47 | 72,760,981 km 189 LD |
| 2108-06-24 | Earth | 54517.83 | 54,242,181 km 141 LD |
| 2104-02-13 | Earth | 58657.39 | 7,207,082 km 18.7 LD |
| 2102-12-16 | Venus | 73963.84 | 21,027,455 km 54.7 LD |
| 2101-08-27 | Earth | 47606.34 | 16,400,400 km 42.7 LD |
| 2097-05-27 | Venus | 59075.96 | 8,362,816 km 21.8 LD |
| 2097-04-08 | Earth | 47039.06 | 49,780,485 km 130 LD |
| 2097-02-05 | Earth | 30384.96 | 58,145,401 km 151 LD |
| 2094-09-16 | Earth | 90260.26 | 47,633,152 km 124 LD |
| 2091-11-08 | Venus | 50185.01 | 4,186,767 km 10.9 LD |
| 2090-06-01 | Earth | 60240.74 | 58,408,813 km 152 LD |
| 2086-04-17 | Venus | 43993.57 | 9,779,259 km 25.4 LD |
| 2086-02-04 | Earth | 77040.23 | 28,523,027 km 74.2 LD |
| 2083-08-03 | Earth | 37260.83 | 37,718,052 km 98.1 LD |
| 2080-09-17 | Venus | 43552.17 | 16,284,611 km 42.4 LD |
| 2079-02-28 | Earth | 33345.69 | 33,753,382 km 87.8 LD |
| 2076-09-07 | Earth | 72070.29 | 23,529,795 km 61.2 LD |
| 2075-02-17 | Venus | 42857.63 | 18,210,306 km 47.4 LD |
| 2072-05-10 | Earth | 59625.16 | 58,187,365 km 151 LD |
| 2069-07-19 | Venus | 42378.26 | 16,358,719 km 42.6 LD |
| 2068-01-27 | Earth | 98496.06 | 57,008,354 km 148 LD |
| 2065-09-12 | Earth | 30202.46 | 67,497,346 km 176 LD |
| 2065-06-29 | Earth | 51772.59 | 52,238,701 km 136 LD |
| 2063-12-25 | Venus | 53755.71 | 16,110,393 km 41.9 LD |
| 2061-02-13 | Earth | 54385.34 | 7,637,876 km 19.9 LD |
| 2058-08-29 | Earth | 51901.88 | 11,952,596 km 31.1 LD |
| 2054-04-14 | Earth | 49939.56 | 51,831,840 km 135 LD |
| 2054-02-01 | Earth | 32447.93 | 62,705,008 km 163 LD |
| 2051-09-17 | Earth | 92541.14 | 50,696,063 km 132 LD |
| 2047-06-01 | Earth | 60346.78 | 58,469,144 km 152 LD |
| 2045-08-11 | Mars | 39047.89 | 12,226,436 km 31.8 LD |
| 2043-02-03 | Earth | 80212.46 | 32,629,339 km 84.9 LD |
| 2040-07-24 | Earth | 39990.54 | 41,527,842 km 108 LD |
| 2036-02-22 | Earth | 38478.24 | 26,667,592 km 69.4 LD |
| 2033-09-05 | Earth | 66577.03 | 16,761,100 km 43.6 LD |
| 2029-05-04 next | Earth | 58111.34 | 57,262,825 km 149 LD |
| 2026-09-24 | Earth | 109886.51 | 73,848,077 km 192 LD |
| 2026-08-29 | Venus | 63462.88 | 11,895,488 km 30.9 LD |
| 2025-01-24 | Earth | 103201.15 | 63,180,870 km 164 LD |
| 2022-09-16 | Earth | 32215.38 | 71,116,766 km 185 LD |
| 2022-06-25 | Earth | 53593.49 | 53,650,440 km 140 LD |
| 2021-02-10 | Venus | 54996.21 | 5,224,010 km 13.6 LD |
| 2019-04-13 | Mars | 43451.94 | 1,824,344 km 4.75 LD |
| 2018-02-13 | Earth | 53578.61 | 8,072,758 km 21.0 LD |
| 2015-08-31 | Earth | 56028.85 | 9,621,459 km 25.0 LD |
| 2015-07-29 | Venus | 53441.99 | 4,344,584 km 11.3 LD |
| 2011-05-01 | Earth | 56990.90 | 56,647,269 km 147 LD |
| 2010-01-16 | Venus | 58575.35 | 7,813,309 km 20.3 LD |
| 2007-01-26 | Earth | 97434.61 | 55,744,190 km 145 LD |
| 2004-07-09 | Earth | 47056.35 | 48,477,352 km 126 LD |
| 2004-07-09 | Venus | 69389.79 | 16,966,145 km 44.1 LD |
| 2000-02-24 | Earth | 34958.85 | 31,338,708 km 81.5 LD |
| 1997-09-09 | Earth | 77810.63 | 31,065,201 km 80.8 LD |
| 1993-05-29 | Earth | 60497.34 | 58,672,235 km 153 LD |
| 1989-02-07 | Earth | 67264.41 | 15,773,822 km 41.0 LD |
| 1986-08-25 | Earth | 46674.11 | 17,240,664 km 44.9 LD |
| 1982-04-22 | Earth | 53915.07 | 54,675,061 km 142 LD |
| 1982-01-25 | Earth | 35452.22 | 69,795,456 km 182 LD |
| 1979-09-22 | Earth | 106805.53 | 69,824,861 km 182 LD |
| 1978-01-23 | Earth | 103104.16 | 63,221,930 km 164 LD |
| 1975-09-10 | Earth | 28971.84 | 65,063,696 km 169 LD |
| 1975-07-02 | Earth | 50476.44 | 51,301,966 km 133 LD |
| 1971-02-19 | Earth | 41055.43 | 23,066,470 km 60.0 LD |
| 1968-09-06 | Earth | 71224.28 | 22,504,353 km 58.5 LD |
| 1964-05-20 | Earth | 60832.56 | 58,966,166 km 153 LD |
| 1964-04-24 | Venus | 58266.09 | 17,516,166 km 45.6 LD |
| 1960-02-03 | Earth | 77834.68 | 29,597,410 km 77.0 LD |
| 1958-10-17 | Venus | 47307.94 | 15,420,966 km 40.1 LD |
| 1957-08-13 | Earth | 36943.22 | 31,573,631 km 82.1 LD |
| 1953-04-11 | Venus | 41888.26 | 16,659,365 km 43.3 LD |
| 1953-04-03 | Earth | 44871.38 | 48,224,581 km 125 LD |
| 1953-02-08 | Earth | 28680.76 | 54,815,392 km 143 LD |
| 1951-07-27 | Mars | 44728.43 | 4,489,980 km 11.7 LD |
| 1950-09-16 | Earth | 92348.72 | 50,463,522 km 131 LD |
| 1947-10-08 | Venus | 41796.14 | 18,044,949 km 46.9 LD |
| 1946-06-11 | Earth | 58144.94 | 56,989,185 km 148 LD |
| 1942-04-03 | Venus | 43177.93 | 18,402,454 km 47.9 LD |
| 1942-02-10 | Earth | 59718.39 | 7,452,393 km 19.4 LD |
| 1939-08-28 | Earth | 51295.25 | 12,230,732 km 31.8 LD |
| 1936-09-22 | Venus | 43419.60 | 18,206,972 km 47.4 LD |
| 1935-04-22 | Earth | 54125.90 | 54,738,676 km 142 LD |
| 1935-01-25 | Earth | 35428.78 | 70,120,422 km 182 LD |
| 1932-09-20 | Earth | 104413.45 | 66,684,078 km 173 LD |
| 1931-03-14 | Venus | 43540.70 | 17,956,250 km 46.7 LD |
| 1931-01-22 | Earth | 107207.06 | 68,589,714 km 178 LD |
| 1928-09-16 | Earth | 32889.04 | 72,235,763 km 188 LD |
| 1928-06-22 | Earth | 54114.65 | 54,110,153 km 141 LD |
| 1925-08-31 | Venus | 43571.13 | 17,722,298 km 46.1 LD |
| 1924-02-14 | Earth | 52092.94 | 9,189,256 km 23.9 LD |
| 1921-08-31 | Earth | 58602.26 | 9,723,547 km 25.3 LD |
| 1920-02-21 | Venus | 43490.03 | 16,986,794 km 44.2 LD |
| 1917-05-02 | Earth | 57938.51 | 57,237,712 km 149 LD |
| 1914-08-14 | Venus | 43124.14 | 15,416,690 km 40.1 LD |
| 1913-01-25 | Earth | 96997.09 | 55,026,775 km 143 LD |
| 1910-07-07 | Earth | 47859.07 | 49,225,804 km 128 LD |
| 1909-02-03 | Venus | 42878.53 | 13,776,324 km 35.8 LD |
| 1906-02-19 | Earth | 40665.49 | 23,602,027 km 61.4 LD |
| 1904-07-17 | Mars | 48261.65 | 13,202,279 km 34.3 LD |
| 1903-09-06 | Earth | 69485.01 | 20,218,324 km 52.6 LD |
| 1903-07-26 | Venus | 42938.06 | 12,388,885 km 32.2 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-19T17:15:37.577402+00:00.