Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2015 TG24)

Designation: 2015 TG24 · NASA id: 3729233 · Sentry Object

Estimated diameter: 12 – 27 meters

≈ the Chelyabinsk object
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 26.68) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
On a monitored risk list
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 1.9 lunar distances.
  • It is on the Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance above zero — 2,207 of them. Being listed is not by itself a warning.
  • The computed chance is about 1 in 40,003, over the window 2102–2121.
  • Palermo -5.72 — below zero, meaning less than the background risk from everything not yet found.
  • Torino 0.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

35 kilotonnes – 1.3 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU

Orbital period235.6 days (0.64 years)
Eccentricity.443337116171776 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis.7464813988536634 AU
Inclination3.993439176397661° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.4155384882100069 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.07742430949732 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00330 AU = 494,135 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude21.86795511351756°
Argument of perihelion151.3926664103566°
Mean anomaly / motion118.8558339055214° / 1.528183789495245°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant7.648 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 14:44:50
Observed2015-10-09 to 2015-10-14 (5 day arc, 44 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 79 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Venus, Merc and Moon? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 47 of them were approaches to Earth, 19 of them were approaches to Venus, 11 of them were approaches to Merc and 2 of them were approaches to Moon.

This one’s path runs from 0.416 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.077 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 235.6 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0033 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2026-11-10

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2064-10-12 Moon 34421.16 767,547 km
2.00 LD
2064-10-12 Earth 35196.13 738,270 km
1.92 LD
2062-12-26 Earth 37999.87 64,151,062 km
167 LD
2062-08-22 Earth 39848.17 10,514,825 km
27.4 LD
2060-08-29 Earth 83777.80 60,863,890 km
158 LD
2058-01-06 Venus 72630.87 13,803,374 km
35.9 LD
2057-05-23 Venus 38108.98 18,794,132 km
48.9 LD
2057-04-21 Merc 60811.30 8,138,419 km
21.2 LD
2055-10-15 Earth 50594.60 19,481,999 km
50.7 LD
2055-05-28 Earth 48198.85 70,712,651 km
184 LD
2055-05-11 Merc 39467.52 3,573,359 km
9.30 LD
2053-12-07 Venus 55450.24 6,717,700 km
17.5 LD
2053-09-05 Earth 30655.52 11,003,569 km
28.6 LD
2053-05-28 Merc 50254.59 7,904,532 km
20.6 LD
2051-08-25 Earth 66125.10 39,782,932 km
103 LD
2046-10-10 Earth 68597.32 41,851,885 km
109 LD
2044-10-03 Earth 30929.48 8,200,589 km
21.3 LD
2044-06-24 Venus 66079.81 8,679,778 km
22.6 LD
2043-01-06 Earth 50313.55 69,676,362 km
181 LD
2042-08-21 Earth 49024.90 19,694,616 km
51.2 LD
2040-09-02 Earth 94263.70 73,400,382 km
191 LD
2040-05-25 Venus 59730.01 6,863,539 km
17.9 LD
2037-10-05 Earth 84494.30 61,299,786 km
159 LD
2035-10-15 Earth 39494.46 5,544,460 km
14.4 LD
2035-06-12 Earth 33581.72 64,059,141 km
167 LD
2035-05-22 Merc 60216.68 8,013,557 km
20.8 LD
2033-12-16 Earth 27520.89 59,848,820 km
156 LD
2033-08-24 Earth 35219.10 8,227,782 km
21.4 LD
2031-08-28 Earth 77137.09 52,948,197 km
138 LD
2031-06-27 Merc 57596.40 10,213,152 km
26.6 LD
2030-12-10 Venus 62823.02 6,417,524 km
16.7 LD
2026-11-10 next Venus 65486.00 9,594,392 km
25.0 LD
2026-10-13 Earth 57590.66 28,182,879 km
73.3 LD
2026-05-21 Earth 55316.84 73,835,652 km
192 LD
2024-09-16 Earth 30103.40 11,940,415 km
31.1 LD
2023-01-16 Earth 60325.42 73,999,606 km
193 LD
2022-08-22 Earth 58629.47 30,849,130 km
80.3 LD
2017-10-07 Earth 76672.58 51,763,644 km
135 LD
2017-05-28 Venus 54647.25 4,880,027 km
12.7 LD
2015-10-12 Earth 34641.83 1,534,965 km
3.99 LD
2015-05-26 Merc 63386.68 8,626,408 km
22.4 LD
2013-12-30 Earth 43066.57 66,523,182 km
173 LD
2013-12-11 Venus 35561.75 22,049,904 km
57.4 LD
2013-08-21 Earth 43389.05 13,670,336 km
35.6 LD
2013-06-19 Merc 52450.02 5,236,860 km
13.6 LD
2013-04-29 Venus 68058.44 11,122,077 km
28.9 LD
2011-09-01 Earth 90724.87 69,036,709 km
180 LD
2011-07-13 Merc 43659.23 3,459,311 km
9.00 LD
2009-08-04 Merc 38315.88 3,461,204 km
9.00 LD
2008-10-05 Earth 84060.30 60,773,159 km
158 LD
2007-08-27 Merc 39467.68 4,484,675 km
11.7 LD
2006-10-13 Earth 37266.80 2,447,000 km
6.37 LD
2006-06-16 Earth 28811.09 62,088,137 km
162 LD
2005-09-18 Merc 58356.80 10,304,989 km
26.8 LD
2004-12-21 Earth 34507.25 62,584,005 km
163 LD
2004-08-22 Earth 37952.95 9,093,397 km
23.7 LD
2003-11-18 Venus 74116.74 14,913,029 km
38.8 LD
2003-04-03 Venus 39264.49 17,362,355 km
45.2 LD
2002-08-29 Earth 81910.84 58,633,078 km
153 LD
1999-10-19 Venus 51379.66 8,064,639 km
21.0 LD
1997-10-14 Earth 50786.72 19,735,658 km
51.3 LD
1997-05-27 Earth 48588.22 70,879,568 km
184 LD
1993-08-24 Earth 67497.22 41,248,847 km
107 LD
1990-05-07 Venus 76888.99 17,191,803 km
44.7 LD
1989-09-19 Venus 41399.97 15,089,171 km
39.3 LD
1988-10-11 Earth 65618.47 38,033,775 km
98.9 LD
1986-04-07 Venus 49152.28 9,369,474 km
24.4 LD
1984-08-21 Earth 52939.96 24,148,596 km
62.8 LD
1979-10-07 Earth 78805.80 54,329,464 km
141 LD
1977-10-12 Moon 32169.41 1,373,658 km
3.57 LD
1977-10-12 Earth 35000.20 1,169,016 km
3.04 LD
1976-03-09 Venus 52713.84 5,734,280 km
14.9 LD
1976-01-01 Earth 45069.47 67,473,055 km
176 LD
1975-08-21 Earth 44887.24 14,990,639 km
39.0 LD
1943-10-14 Earth 55779.79 25,757,281 km
67.0 LD
1942-07-30 Venus 66597.61 9,804,555 km
25.5 LD
1939-08-26 Earth 71169.95 45,426,361 km
118 LD
1903-08-28 Earth 78090.88 53,663,195 km
140 LD
1903-08-05 Venus 51334.86 6,629,961 km
17.2 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-07T08:46:32.188365+00:00.