Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2015 XX169)

Designation: 2015 XX169 · NASA id: 3736412

Estimated diameter: 9 – 20 meters

≈ a city bus
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 27.4) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 6.5 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

3 kilotonnes – 95 kilotonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period367.7 days (1.01 years)
Eccentricity.1850552290150503 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.004461812332529 AU
Inclination7.601967638374249° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.8185809016144604 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.190342723050597 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.01436 AU = 2,148,091 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude256.1841505305725°
Argument of perihelion282.2892440636247°
Mean anomaly / motion244.6724455879334° / .9790478732156604°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant6.036 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 15:30:51
Observed2015-12-09 to 2017-12-08 (730 day arc, 57 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 107 total.

Why does it pass Earth and Venus? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 104 of them were approaches to Earth and 3 of them were approaches to Venus.

This one’s path runs from 0.819 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.190 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 367.7 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0144 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2027-03-28

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2180-12-04 Venus 23631.97 22,107,307 km
57.5 LD
2163-02-04 Venus 23179.64 21,090,668 km
54.9 LD
2154-11-27 Earth 73667.78 71,334,718 km
186 LD
2153-11-29 Earth 67809.44 63,366,242 km
165 LD
2152-12-01 Earth 62080.34 55,438,667 km
144 LD
2151-12-04 Earth 56500.54 47,612,810 km
124 LD
2150-12-06 Earth 50922.16 39,878,906 km
104 LD
2149-12-07 Earth 45455.20 32,234,236 km
83.9 LD
2148-12-09 Earth 40241.84 24,705,037 km
64.3 LD
2147-12-12 Earth 35321.18 17,565,006 km
45.7 LD
2146-12-13 Earth 30841.39 11,034,637 km
28.7 LD
2145-12-13 Earth 27293.68 5,697,428 km
14.8 LD
2144-12-14 Earth 25102.68 2,827,721 km
7.36 LD
2143-12-14 Earth 24615.16 2,507,721 km
6.52 LD
2142-12-14 Earth 25483.45 3,246,664 km
8.45 LD
2141-12-13 Earth 28024.03 6,834,313 km
17.8 LD
2140-12-12 Earth 31776.31 12,488,113 km
32.5 LD
2139-12-11 Earth 36357.80 19,207,547 km
50.0 LD
2138-12-09 Earth 41270.00 26,460,011 km
68.8 LD
2137-12-07 Earth 46649.56 34,043,054 km
88.6 LD
2136-12-05 Earth 52084.31 41,816,784 km
109 LD
2135-12-03 Earth 57841.36 49,795,895 km
130 LD
2134-12-01 Earth 63586.41 57,865,453 km
151 LD
2133-11-28 Earth 69448.33 65,932,564 km
172 LD
2132-11-25 Earth 75398.66 74,130,303 km
193 LD
2046-07-21 Earth 69464.91 68,600,760 km
178 LD
2045-07-18 Earth 63946.46 60,718,800 km
158 LD
2044-07-15 Earth 58332.99 52,896,322 km
138 LD
2043-07-13 Earth 53023.25 45,256,655 km
118 LD
2042-07-11 Earth 47676.44 37,705,400 km
98.1 LD
2041-07-08 Earth 42646.45 30,383,879 km
79.0 LD
2040-07-05 Earth 37749.71 23,416,104 km
60.9 LD
2039-07-03 Earth 33320.22 17,056,460 km
44.4 LD
2038-06-30 Earth 29297.62 11,663,174 km
30.3 LD
2037-06-27 Earth 25995.29 8,134,203 km
21.2 LD
2036-06-23 Earth 23400.84 7,392,442 km
19.2 LD
2035-06-20 Earth 21178.58 9,158,366 km
23.8 LD
2034-06-15 Earth 19333.65 12,584,610 km
32.7 LD
2033-06-05 Earth 18591.68 16,668,356 km
43.4 LD
2032-05-24 Earth 19086.50 20,626,807 km
53.7 LD
2031-07-31 Earth 13793.38 29,745,629 km
77.4 LD
2031-05-12 Earth 20084.93 24,094,075 km
62.7 LD
2030-08-21 Earth 15839.65 32,535,151 km
84.6 LD
2030-04-30 Earth 21030.32 26,930,622 km
70.1 LD
2029-09-03 Earth 17105.07 34,160,343 km
88.9 LD
2029-04-18 Earth 21759.65 29,106,676 km
75.7 LD
2028-09-14 Earth 17986.13 34,928,488 km
90.9 LD
2028-04-07 Earth 22158.02 30,620,429 km
79.7 LD
2027-09-25 Earth 18579.74 34,967,879 km
91.0 LD
2027-03-28 next Earth 22045.52 31,500,390 km
81.9 LD
2026-10-05 Earth 18912.50 34,312,498 km
89.3 LD
2026-03-16 Earth 21438.74 31,707,251 km
82.5 LD
2025-10-14 Earth 18997.45 32,981,078 km
85.8 LD
2025-03-04 Earth 20425.43 31,183,682 km
81.1 LD
2024-10-24 Earth 18846.58 30,999,488 km
80.6 LD
2024-02-20 Earth 18860.33 29,798,397 km
77.5 LD
2023-11-04 Earth 18449.45 28,260,359 km
73.5 LD
2023-02-03 Earth 16513.95 27,304,516 km
71.0 LD
2022-11-15 Earth 17840.63 24,742,180 km
64.4 LD
2021-11-27 Earth 17229.16 20,434,982 km
53.2 LD
2020-12-07 Earth 17356.62 15,581,079 km
40.5 LD
2019-12-12 Earth 18789.16 10,696,783 km
27.8 LD
2018-12-13 Earth 20776.98 6,504,453 km
16.9 LD
2017-12-14 Earth 22501.44 3,731,061 km
9.71 LD
2016-12-13 Earth 23161.02 2,869,388 km
7.46 LD
2015-12-14 Earth 22851.22 3,232,792 km
8.41 LD
2014-12-14 Earth 21570.07 5,246,742 km
13.6 LD
2013-12-13 Earth 19627.10 8,958,818 km
23.3 LD
2012-12-09 Earth 18022.28 13,643,706 km
35.5 LD
2011-12-01 Earth 17463.31 18,503,861 km
48.1 LD
2011-01-23 Earth 14611.92 26,399,052 km
68.7 LD
2010-11-20 Earth 17846.21 22,895,734 km
59.6 LD
2010-02-15 Earth 17782.20 29,558,213 km
76.9 LD
2009-11-08 Earth 18417.54 26,523,134 km
69.0 LD
2009-03-01 Earth 19864.70 31,390,994 km
81.7 LD
2008-10-28 Earth 18821.25 29,397,763 km
76.5 LD
2008-03-12 Earth 21310.33 32,303,225 km
84.0 LD
2007-10-19 Earth 18874.73 31,486,284 km
81.9 LD
2007-03-24 Earth 22252.75 32,499,257 km
84.5 LD
2006-10-09 Earth 18662.88 32,876,714 km
85.5 LD
2006-04-04 Earth 22742.22 32,064,561 km
83.4 LD
2005-09-28 Earth 18274.77 33,570,153 km
87.3 LD
2005-04-14 Earth 22811.18 31,037,081 km
80.7 LD
2004-09-17 Earth 17514.02 33,537,406 km
87.2 LD
2004-04-24 Earth 22483.60 29,423,806 km
76.5 LD
2003-09-05 Earth 16301.80 32,701,822 km
85.1 LD
2003-05-06 Earth 21822.83 27,269,450 km
70.9 LD
2002-08-19 Earth 14516.14 30,859,628 km
80.3 LD
2002-05-17 Earth 20926.87 24,587,709 km
64.0 LD
2001-05-28 Earth 19979.51 21,393,421 km
55.7 LD
2000-06-08 Earth 19371.63 17,747,106 km
46.2 LD
1999-06-18 Earth 19707.37 14,045,982 km
36.5 LD
1998-06-25 Earth 21123.43 10,927,843 km
28.4 LD
1997-06-29 Earth 23240.01 9,262,842 km
24.1 LD
1996-07-03 Earth 25969.00 9,955,950 km
25.9 LD
1995-07-07 Earth 29363.17 13,187,058 km
34.3 LD
1994-07-10 Earth 33281.27 18,212,652 km
47.4 LD
1993-07-12 Earth 37651.76 24,310,615 km
63.2 LD
1992-07-15 Earth 42466.76 31,077,231 km
80.8 LD
1991-07-18 Earth 47579.58 38,252,923 km
99.5 LD
1990-07-21 Earth 52740.49 45,595,689 km
119 LD
1989-07-23 Earth 57987.92 53,054,605 km
138 LD
1988-07-26 Earth 63437.22 60,635,318 km
158 LD
1987-07-29 Earth 68971.03 68,347,056 km
178 LD
1947-10-11 Venus 23929.16 22,351,697 km
58.1 LD
1901-11-26 Earth 74779.11 73,441,844 km
191 LD
1900-11-28 Earth 68914.73 65,392,974 km
170 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T17:36:26.222664+00:00.