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Designation: 2015 XX169 · NASA id: 3736412
Estimated diameter: 9 – 20 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
3 kilotonnes – 95 kilotonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 367.7 days (1.01 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1850552290150503 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.004461812332529 AU |
| Inclination | 7.601967638374249° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .8185809016144604 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.190342723050597 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01436 AU = 2,148,091 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 256.1841505305725° |
| Argument of perihelion | 282.2892440636247° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 244.6724455879334° / .9790478732156604°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.036 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 15:30:51 |
| Observed | 2015-12-09 to 2017-12-08 (730 day arc, 57 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 107 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 104 of them were approaches to Earth and 3 of them were approaches to Venus.
This one’s path runs from 0.819 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.190 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 367.7 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0144 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2027-03-28
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2180-12-04 | Venus | 23631.97 | 22,107,307 km 57.5 LD |
| 2163-02-04 | Venus | 23179.64 | 21,090,668 km 54.9 LD |
| 2154-11-27 | Earth | 73667.78 | 71,334,718 km 186 LD |
| 2153-11-29 | Earth | 67809.44 | 63,366,242 km 165 LD |
| 2152-12-01 | Earth | 62080.34 | 55,438,667 km 144 LD |
| 2151-12-04 | Earth | 56500.54 | 47,612,810 km 124 LD |
| 2150-12-06 | Earth | 50922.16 | 39,878,906 km 104 LD |
| 2149-12-07 | Earth | 45455.20 | 32,234,236 km 83.9 LD |
| 2148-12-09 | Earth | 40241.84 | 24,705,037 km 64.3 LD |
| 2147-12-12 | Earth | 35321.18 | 17,565,006 km 45.7 LD |
| 2146-12-13 | Earth | 30841.39 | 11,034,637 km 28.7 LD |
| 2145-12-13 | Earth | 27293.68 | 5,697,428 km 14.8 LD |
| 2144-12-14 | Earth | 25102.68 | 2,827,721 km 7.36 LD |
| 2143-12-14 | Earth | 24615.16 | 2,507,721 km 6.52 LD |
| 2142-12-14 | Earth | 25483.45 | 3,246,664 km 8.45 LD |
| 2141-12-13 | Earth | 28024.03 | 6,834,313 km 17.8 LD |
| 2140-12-12 | Earth | 31776.31 | 12,488,113 km 32.5 LD |
| 2139-12-11 | Earth | 36357.80 | 19,207,547 km 50.0 LD |
| 2138-12-09 | Earth | 41270.00 | 26,460,011 km 68.8 LD |
| 2137-12-07 | Earth | 46649.56 | 34,043,054 km 88.6 LD |
| 2136-12-05 | Earth | 52084.31 | 41,816,784 km 109 LD |
| 2135-12-03 | Earth | 57841.36 | 49,795,895 km 130 LD |
| 2134-12-01 | Earth | 63586.41 | 57,865,453 km 151 LD |
| 2133-11-28 | Earth | 69448.33 | 65,932,564 km 172 LD |
| 2132-11-25 | Earth | 75398.66 | 74,130,303 km 193 LD |
| 2046-07-21 | Earth | 69464.91 | 68,600,760 km 178 LD |
| 2045-07-18 | Earth | 63946.46 | 60,718,800 km 158 LD |
| 2044-07-15 | Earth | 58332.99 | 52,896,322 km 138 LD |
| 2043-07-13 | Earth | 53023.25 | 45,256,655 km 118 LD |
| 2042-07-11 | Earth | 47676.44 | 37,705,400 km 98.1 LD |
| 2041-07-08 | Earth | 42646.45 | 30,383,879 km 79.0 LD |
| 2040-07-05 | Earth | 37749.71 | 23,416,104 km 60.9 LD |
| 2039-07-03 | Earth | 33320.22 | 17,056,460 km 44.4 LD |
| 2038-06-30 | Earth | 29297.62 | 11,663,174 km 30.3 LD |
| 2037-06-27 | Earth | 25995.29 | 8,134,203 km 21.2 LD |
| 2036-06-23 | Earth | 23400.84 | 7,392,442 km 19.2 LD |
| 2035-06-20 | Earth | 21178.58 | 9,158,366 km 23.8 LD |
| 2034-06-15 | Earth | 19333.65 | 12,584,610 km 32.7 LD |
| 2033-06-05 | Earth | 18591.68 | 16,668,356 km 43.4 LD |
| 2032-05-24 | Earth | 19086.50 | 20,626,807 km 53.7 LD |
| 2031-07-31 | Earth | 13793.38 | 29,745,629 km 77.4 LD |
| 2031-05-12 | Earth | 20084.93 | 24,094,075 km 62.7 LD |
| 2030-08-21 | Earth | 15839.65 | 32,535,151 km 84.6 LD |
| 2030-04-30 | Earth | 21030.32 | 26,930,622 km 70.1 LD |
| 2029-09-03 | Earth | 17105.07 | 34,160,343 km 88.9 LD |
| 2029-04-18 | Earth | 21759.65 | 29,106,676 km 75.7 LD |
| 2028-09-14 | Earth | 17986.13 | 34,928,488 km 90.9 LD |
| 2028-04-07 | Earth | 22158.02 | 30,620,429 km 79.7 LD |
| 2027-09-25 | Earth | 18579.74 | 34,967,879 km 91.0 LD |
| 2027-03-28 next | Earth | 22045.52 | 31,500,390 km 81.9 LD |
| 2026-10-05 | Earth | 18912.50 | 34,312,498 km 89.3 LD |
| 2026-03-16 | Earth | 21438.74 | 31,707,251 km 82.5 LD |
| 2025-10-14 | Earth | 18997.45 | 32,981,078 km 85.8 LD |
| 2025-03-04 | Earth | 20425.43 | 31,183,682 km 81.1 LD |
| 2024-10-24 | Earth | 18846.58 | 30,999,488 km 80.6 LD |
| 2024-02-20 | Earth | 18860.33 | 29,798,397 km 77.5 LD |
| 2023-11-04 | Earth | 18449.45 | 28,260,359 km 73.5 LD |
| 2023-02-03 | Earth | 16513.95 | 27,304,516 km 71.0 LD |
| 2022-11-15 | Earth | 17840.63 | 24,742,180 km 64.4 LD |
| 2021-11-27 | Earth | 17229.16 | 20,434,982 km 53.2 LD |
| 2020-12-07 | Earth | 17356.62 | 15,581,079 km 40.5 LD |
| 2019-12-12 | Earth | 18789.16 | 10,696,783 km 27.8 LD |
| 2018-12-13 | Earth | 20776.98 | 6,504,453 km 16.9 LD |
| 2017-12-14 | Earth | 22501.44 | 3,731,061 km 9.71 LD |
| 2016-12-13 | Earth | 23161.02 | 2,869,388 km 7.46 LD |
| 2015-12-14 | Earth | 22851.22 | 3,232,792 km 8.41 LD |
| 2014-12-14 | Earth | 21570.07 | 5,246,742 km 13.6 LD |
| 2013-12-13 | Earth | 19627.10 | 8,958,818 km 23.3 LD |
| 2012-12-09 | Earth | 18022.28 | 13,643,706 km 35.5 LD |
| 2011-12-01 | Earth | 17463.31 | 18,503,861 km 48.1 LD |
| 2011-01-23 | Earth | 14611.92 | 26,399,052 km 68.7 LD |
| 2010-11-20 | Earth | 17846.21 | 22,895,734 km 59.6 LD |
| 2010-02-15 | Earth | 17782.20 | 29,558,213 km 76.9 LD |
| 2009-11-08 | Earth | 18417.54 | 26,523,134 km 69.0 LD |
| 2009-03-01 | Earth | 19864.70 | 31,390,994 km 81.7 LD |
| 2008-10-28 | Earth | 18821.25 | 29,397,763 km 76.5 LD |
| 2008-03-12 | Earth | 21310.33 | 32,303,225 km 84.0 LD |
| 2007-10-19 | Earth | 18874.73 | 31,486,284 km 81.9 LD |
| 2007-03-24 | Earth | 22252.75 | 32,499,257 km 84.5 LD |
| 2006-10-09 | Earth | 18662.88 | 32,876,714 km 85.5 LD |
| 2006-04-04 | Earth | 22742.22 | 32,064,561 km 83.4 LD |
| 2005-09-28 | Earth | 18274.77 | 33,570,153 km 87.3 LD |
| 2005-04-14 | Earth | 22811.18 | 31,037,081 km 80.7 LD |
| 2004-09-17 | Earth | 17514.02 | 33,537,406 km 87.2 LD |
| 2004-04-24 | Earth | 22483.60 | 29,423,806 km 76.5 LD |
| 2003-09-05 | Earth | 16301.80 | 32,701,822 km 85.1 LD |
| 2003-05-06 | Earth | 21822.83 | 27,269,450 km 70.9 LD |
| 2002-08-19 | Earth | 14516.14 | 30,859,628 km 80.3 LD |
| 2002-05-17 | Earth | 20926.87 | 24,587,709 km 64.0 LD |
| 2001-05-28 | Earth | 19979.51 | 21,393,421 km 55.7 LD |
| 2000-06-08 | Earth | 19371.63 | 17,747,106 km 46.2 LD |
| 1999-06-18 | Earth | 19707.37 | 14,045,982 km 36.5 LD |
| 1998-06-25 | Earth | 21123.43 | 10,927,843 km 28.4 LD |
| 1997-06-29 | Earth | 23240.01 | 9,262,842 km 24.1 LD |
| 1996-07-03 | Earth | 25969.00 | 9,955,950 km 25.9 LD |
| 1995-07-07 | Earth | 29363.17 | 13,187,058 km 34.3 LD |
| 1994-07-10 | Earth | 33281.27 | 18,212,652 km 47.4 LD |
| 1993-07-12 | Earth | 37651.76 | 24,310,615 km 63.2 LD |
| 1992-07-15 | Earth | 42466.76 | 31,077,231 km 80.8 LD |
| 1991-07-18 | Earth | 47579.58 | 38,252,923 km 99.5 LD |
| 1990-07-21 | Earth | 52740.49 | 45,595,689 km 119 LD |
| 1989-07-23 | Earth | 57987.92 | 53,054,605 km 138 LD |
| 1988-07-26 | Earth | 63437.22 | 60,635,318 km 158 LD |
| 1987-07-29 | Earth | 68971.03 | 68,347,056 km 178 LD |
| 1947-10-11 | Venus | 23929.16 | 22,351,697 km 58.1 LD |
| 1901-11-26 | Earth | 74779.11 | 73,441,844 km 191 LD |
| 1900-11-28 | Earth | 68914.73 | 65,392,974 km 170 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T17:36:26.222664+00:00.