Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2015 YP1)

Designation: 2015 YP1 · NASA id: 3738928

Estimated diameter: 68 – 151 meters

≈ a football pitch
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 22.97) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 30.7 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

2.3 megatonnes – 85.6 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period504.4 days (1.38 years)
Eccentricity.181247436810898 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.240110457628048 AU
Inclination14.85192338362123° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance1.015343615820574 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.464877299435521 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.07370 AU = 11,026,021 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude273.1619966958073°
Argument of perihelion225.4181513259309°
Mean anomaly / motion33.88634205510548° / .7136964214024135°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.124 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 15:44:26
Observed2015-12-18 to 2016-02-05 (49 day arc, 54 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 35 total.

Why does it pass Earth and Mars? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 32 of them were approaches to Earth and 3 of them were approaches to Mars.

This one’s path runs from 1.015 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.465 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 504.4 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0737 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2026-12-25

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2168-07-14 Earth 32757.99 67,119,535 km
175 LD
2161-05-29 Earth 28753.03 43,802,909 km
114 LD
2160-12-27 Earth 47301.13 41,197,670 km
107 LD
2153-12-09 Earth 28133.51 50,327,205 km
131 LD
2150-06-22 Earth 31787.02 54,988,039 km
143 LD
2146-05-04 Mars 32237.20 12,376,538 km
32.2 LD
2143-01-01 Earth 29132.86 13,527,873 km
35.2 LD
2131-12-29 Earth 43034.69 33,575,103 km
87.3 LD
2062-12-23 Earth 54290.29 53,146,393 km
138 LD
2044-12-30 Earth 31965.81 12,224,136 km
31.8 LD
2041-07-18 Earth 32767.58 69,100,722 km
180 LD
2034-06-04 Earth 29815.71 47,097,712 km
123 LD
2033-12-23 Earth 55084.62 54,562,797 km
142 LD
2026-12-25 next Earth 29158.53 36,110,176 km
93.9 LD
2023-06-29 Earth 32442.31 59,526,131 km
155 LD
2016-07-22 Mars 31402.11 11,805,218 km
30.7 LD
2016-05-08 Earth 25646.82 41,097,176 km
107 LD
2015-12-30 Earth 34125.77 16,030,262 km
41.7 LD
2012-07-21 Earth 32709.93 70,595,493 km
184 LD
2008-10-29 Earth 20994.97 65,608,147 km
171 LD
2005-06-09 Earth 30617.34 49,646,637 km
129 LD
2004-12-20 Earth 61146.81 64,507,587 km
168 LD
1997-12-29 Earth 28427.99 25,081,462 km
65.2 LD
1994-07-04 Earth 32806.27 62,740,256 km
163 LD
1986-12-28 Earth 40005.02 27,832,204 km
72.4 LD
1983-07-28 Earth 32240.22 72,909,333 km
190 LD
1976-06-15 Earth 31387.84 53,041,401 km
138 LD
1968-12-30 Earth 28811.16 15,058,702 km
39.2 LD
1965-07-09 Earth 32882.42 65,360,492 km
170 LD
1957-12-26 Earth 44891.80 37,086,805 km
96.5 LD
1947-06-19 Earth 31790.05 54,666,251 km
142 LD
1939-12-31 Earth 29295.72 12,795,750 km
33.3 LD
1928-12-25 Earth 45135.60 37,525,802 km
97.6 LD
1928-02-27 Mars 30020.21 13,381,575 km
34.8 LD
1910-12-30 Earth 28739.21 15,718,691 km
40.9 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-06T16:54:56.325315+00:00.