← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived
Designation: 2016 DB1 · NASA id: 3744802
Estimated diameter: 13 – 30 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
14 kilotonnes – 519 kilotonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 474.5 days (1.30 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1893964414315794 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.190546266753721 AU |
| Inclination | 12.92141116387947° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .9650610404709142 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.416031493036527 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01290 AU = 1,930,381 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 337.5932008985952° |
| Argument of perihelion | 138.5954620294725° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 205.674008809721° / .7587254599841787°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.286 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 16:29:18 |
| Observed | 2016-02-26 to 2016-03-05 (8 day arc, 86 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 72 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 67 of them were approaches to Earth and 5 of them were approaches to Mars.
This one’s path runs from 0.965 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.416 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 474.5 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0129 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2028-10-24
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2146-08-02 | Mars | 27243.61 | 13,020,666 km 33.9 LD |
| 2142-08-20 | Earth | 30786.74 | 57,140,660 km 149 LD |
| 2121-03-17 | Earth | 50842.52 | 45,561,431 km 119 LD |
| 2108-12-17 | Mars | 25030.09 | 5,186,274 km 13.5 LD |
| 2107-08-25 | Earth | 30542.53 | 55,216,624 km 144 LD |
| 2103-06-24 | Earth | 24520.02 | 66,027,882 km 172 LD |
| 2099-02-28 | Earth | 30287.63 | 7,072,340 km 18.4 LD |
| 2098-10-09 | Earth | 24637.94 | 36,837,660 km 95.8 LD |
| 2094-08-04 | Earth | 30390.27 | 61,954,670 km 161 LD |
| 2086-03-20 | Earth | 58172.08 | 57,048,599 km 148 LD |
| 2085-09-05 | Earth | 29468.30 | 49,090,795 km 128 LD |
| 2081-07-04 | Earth | 26837.15 | 66,296,137 km 172 LD |
| 2077-02-23 | Earth | 27292.45 | 3,492,319 km 9.09 LD |
| 2076-10-18 | Earth | 23070.84 | 35,624,344 km 92.7 LD |
| 2072-08-15 | Earth | 30803.87 | 58,765,341 km 153 LD |
| 2068-06-12 | Earth | 22468.08 | 65,135,595 km 169 LD |
| 2064-03-03 | Earth | 33383.78 | 14,242,251 km 37.1 LD |
| 2063-10-03 | Earth | 25562.41 | 38,340,769 km 99.7 LD |
| 2059-08-04 | Earth | 30487.89 | 62,344,224 km 162 LD |
| 2055-05-15 | Earth | 16830.09 | 59,315,027 km 154 LD |
| 2054-11-17 | Earth | 44778.32 | 55,850,850 km 145 LD |
| 2051-03-14 | Earth | 48530.22 | 41,618,562 km 108 LD |
| 2050-09-15 | Earth | 28457.74 | 45,182,902 km 118 LD |
| 2046-07-19 | Earth | 29040.46 | 65,696,000 km 171 LD |
| 2042-01-29 | Earth | 29783.65 | 32,954,038 km 85.7 LD |
| 2038-03-24 | Earth | 65474.89 | 68,233,269 km 178 LD |
| 2037-08-30 | Earth | 30076.36 | 52,315,995 km 136 LD |
| 2033-07-02 | Earth | 26588.56 | 66,773,859 km 174 LD |
| 2029-02-20 | Earth | 26202.83 | 9,176,873 km 23.9 LD |
| 2028-10-24 next | Earth | 21978.87 | 35,054,513 km 91.2 LD |
| 2024-08-19 | Earth | 30656.99 | 57,201,495 km 149 LD |
| 2020-06-21 | Earth | 24499.33 | 66,394,989 km 173 LD |
| 2016-02-26 | Earth | 28321.20 | 2,221,493 km 5.78 LD |
| 2015-10-13 | Earth | 24040.35 | 35,628,222 km 92.7 LD |
| 2011-08-08 | Earth | 30517.10 | 61,054,315 km 159 LD |
| 2007-05-19 | Earth | 17697.22 | 60,427,083 km 157 LD |
| 2006-11-13 | Earth | 47408.45 | 58,258,852 km 152 LD |
| 2003-03-14 | Earth | 48938.18 | 42,092,974 km 110 LD |
| 2002-09-13 | Earth | 28474.33 | 45,291,700 km 118 LD |
| 1998-07-14 | Earth | 28467.95 | 66,169,859 km 172 LD |
| 1994-02-10 | Earth | 26612.11 | 22,903,962 km 59.6 LD |
| 1989-08-21 | Earth | 30470.71 | 55,912,943 km 145 LD |
| 1985-06-17 | Earth | 23615.45 | 65,863,903 km 171 LD |
| 1981-03-02 | Earth | 33119.80 | 13,567,838 km 35.3 LD |
| 1980-10-01 | Earth | 25668.43 | 37,831,816 km 98.4 LD |
| 1976-07-29 | Earth | 30109.32 | 63,345,906 km 165 LD |
| 1975-06-04 | Mars | 26479.93 | 10,297,932 km 26.8 LD |
| 1971-11-25 | Earth | 34783.26 | 45,847,241 km 119 LD |
| 1968-03-20 | Earth | 59834.61 | 59,405,823 km 155 LD |
| 1967-09-03 | Earth | 29651.17 | 50,023,262 km 130 LD |
| 1963-07-02 | Earth | 26497.19 | 66,746,303 km 174 LD |
| 1959-02-23 | Earth | 26963.77 | 4,707,716 km 12.2 LD |
| 1958-10-17 | Earth | 23279.23 | 34,975,450 km 91.0 LD |
| 1954-08-14 | Earth | 30636.33 | 59,076,737 km 154 LD |
| 1950-06-11 | Earth | 22382.49 | 65,318,380 km 170 LD |
| 1946-03-03 | Earth | 33442.37 | 14,186,011 km 36.9 LD |
| 1945-10-01 | Earth | 25729.06 | 38,034,033 km 98.9 LD |
| 1941-08-02 | Earth | 30308.04 | 62,861,161 km 164 LD |
| 1937-10-18 | Mars | 23952.43 | 3,331,458 km 8.67 LD |
| 1937-05-11 | Earth | 16906.91 | 58,915,424 km 153 LD |
| 1936-11-13 | Earth | 44284.79 | 54,653,000 km 142 LD |
| 1933-03-14 | Earth | 49439.72 | 42,852,086 km 111 LD |
| 1932-09-12 | Earth | 28514.30 | 45,635,220 km 119 LD |
| 1928-07-15 | Earth | 28772.82 | 66,277,705 km 172 LD |
| 1920-03-24 | Earth | 67962.62 | 71,559,409 km 186 LD |
| 1919-08-27 | Earth | 30222.15 | 53,530,844 km 139 LD |
| 1915-06-28 | Earth | 25762.82 | 67,025,903 km 174 LD |
| 1911-02-23 | Earth | 26842.34 | 5,137,319 km 13.4 LD |
| 1910-10-17 | Earth | 23184.96 | 34,895,077 km 90.8 LD |
| 1906-08-17 | Earth | 30703.39 | 58,159,030 km 151 LD |
| 1902-06-20 | Earth | 24437.37 | 66,884,155 km 174 LD |
| 1900-03-12 | Mars | 28026.74 | 14,330,309 km 37.3 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-08T13:56:48.482600+00:00.