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Designation: 2016 FX2 · NASA id: 3747991
Estimated diameter: 50 – 111 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
499 kilotonnes – 18.6 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 492.4 days (1.35 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1721726485411731 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.220284656631736 AU |
| Inclination | 6.765376113955541° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | 1.010185015325294 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.430384297938178 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.04993 AU = 7,469,915 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 17.48336147811248° |
| Argument of perihelion | 130.2589937803357° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 85.10657170282572° / .7311598715974662°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.211 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 16:46:19 |
| Observed | 2016-03-17 to 2020-01-24 (1408 day arc, 246 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 108 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 103 of them were approaches to Earth and 5 of them were approaches to Mars.
This one’s path runs from 1.010 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.430 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 492.4 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0499 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2027-09-14
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2197-09-21 | Earth | 25794.13 | 60,891,611 km 158 LD |
| 2194-04-19 | Earth | 59892.19 | 71,648,446 km 186 LD |
| 2193-10-22 | Earth | 22452.18 | 49,833,197 km 130 LD |
| 2190-04-02 | Earth | 26431.85 | 22,013,707 km 57.3 LD |
| 2189-12-10 | Earth | 11030.87 | 31,224,263 km 81.2 LD |
| 2186-02-26 | Earth | 20372.47 | 28,525,801 km 74.2 LD |
| 2182-06-30 | Earth | 18480.59 | 54,524,376 km 142 LD |
| 2178-08-05 | Earth | 23968.03 | 63,726,534 km 166 LD |
| 2174-09-03 | Earth | 26051.47 | 64,172,844 km 167 LD |
| 2170-10-02 | Earth | 24985.95 | 57,442,654 km 149 LD |
| 2167-04-13 | Earth | 46896.29 | 52,741,692 km 137 LD |
| 2166-11-05 | Earth | 19678.56 | 43,697,162 km 114 LD |
| 2163-03-27 | Earth | 16673.36 | 7,766,434 km 20.2 LD |
| 2159-05-21 | Earth | 12647.44 | 39,913,623 km 104 LD |
| 2159-01-27 | Earth | 33970.17 | 43,034,129 km 112 LD |
| 2155-07-09 | Earth | 20040.62 | 57,498,178 km 150 LD |
| 2151-08-09 | Earth | 24483.88 | 64,159,665 km 167 LD |
| 2150-06-17 | Mars | 16681.84 | 5,149,335 km 13.4 LD |
| 2147-09-05 | Earth | 25979.35 | 63,761,177 km 166 LD |
| 2143-10-01 | Earth | 24980.54 | 57,490,781 km 150 LD |
| 2140-04-14 | Earth | 50453.51 | 57,806,281 km 150 LD |
| 2139-11-01 | Earth | 20578.65 | 45,429,293 km 118 LD |
| 2136-03-29 | Earth | 21423.00 | 14,105,075 km 36.7 LD |
| 2132-04-15 | Earth | 13091.90 | 29,630,715 km 77.1 LD |
| 2132-02-19 | Earth | 21731.98 | 29,656,612 km 77.2 LD |
| 2128-06-23 | Earth | 17525.95 | 52,454,841 km 136 LD |
| 2128-01-10 | Earth | 55461.73 | 70,377,430 km 183 LD |
| 2124-07-26 | Earth | 22796.84 | 62,069,514 km 161 LD |
| 2120-08-22 | Earth | 25515.30 | 64,601,157 km 168 LD |
| 2116-09-15 | Earth | 25817.96 | 61,558,999 km 160 LD |
| 2112-10-12 | Earth | 23689.24 | 53,274,040 km 139 LD |
| 2109-04-08 | Earth | 39969.23 | 42,281,474 km 110 LD |
| 2108-11-13 | Earth | 17759.84 | 39,748,572 km 103 LD |
| 2105-03-25 | Earth | 15628.73 | 7,490,062 km 19.5 LD |
| 2101-05-18 | Earth | 12544.72 | 39,139,383 km 102 LD |
| 2101-01-25 | Earth | 33223.02 | 41,859,859 km 109 LD |
| 2097-07-03 | Earth | 19438.49 | 56,232,983 km 146 LD |
| 2093-08-02 | Earth | 23805.39 | 63,452,313 km 165 LD |
| 2089-08-27 | Earth | 25758.34 | 64,350,224 km 167 LD |
| 2085-09-20 | Earth | 25571.05 | 60,008,970 km 156 LD |
| 2082-04-19 | Earth | 62164.37 | 74,758,982 km 194 LD |
| 2081-10-17 | Earth | 22726.02 | 50,682,532 km 132 LD |
| 2078-12-27 | Mars | 16923.24 | 4,387,539 km 11.4 LD |
| 2078-04-05 | Earth | 34154.06 | 33,581,171 km 87.4 LD |
| 2077-11-20 | Earth | 15772.32 | 36,267,992 km 94.3 LD |
| 2074-03-22 | Earth | 13799.99 | 10,347,214 km 26.9 LD |
| 2070-06-01 | Earth | 14182.16 | 44,541,911 km 116 LD |
| 2070-01-16 | Earth | 40893.26 | 51,092,325 km 133 LD |
| 2066-07-13 | Earth | 21103.56 | 59,395,971 km 155 LD |
| 2062-08-11 | Earth | 24876.09 | 64,704,235 km 168 LD |
| 2058-09-07 | Earth | 25974.60 | 63,309,038 km 165 LD |
| 2054-10-04 | Earth | 24514.28 | 55,925,610 km 145 LD |
| 2051-04-10 | Earth | 45002.87 | 49,599,300 km 129 LD |
| 2050-11-05 | Earth | 19272.06 | 42,609,098 km 111 LD |
| 2047-03-26 | Earth | 17387.62 | 8,471,500 km 22.0 LD |
| 2043-05-06 | Earth | 12113.15 | 35,195,815 km 91.6 LD |
| 2043-01-28 | Earth | 28641.82 | 36,198,910 km 94.2 LD |
| 2039-06-27 | Earth | 18438.67 | 54,184,137 km 141 LD |
| 2035-07-27 | Earth | 23165.81 | 62,632,327 km 163 LD |
| 2031-08-22 | Earth | 25534.17 | 64,696,574 km 168 LD |
| 2027-09-14 next | Earth | 25720.51 | 61,572,073 km 160 LD |
| 2023-10-09 | Earth | 23769.44 | 53,589,459 km 139 LD |
| 2020-04-08 | Earth | 41803.10 | 44,805,708 km 117 LD |
| 2019-11-09 | Earth | 18378.18 | 40,729,118 km 106 LD |
| 2016-03-25 | Earth | 17450.50 | 8,542,115 km 22.2 LD |
| 2012-04-22 | Earth | 12315.45 | 31,121,306 km 81.0 LD |
| 2012-02-04 | Earth | 24146.37 | 31,299,344 km 81.4 LD |
| 2008-06-16 | Earth | 16849.06 | 50,824,189 km 132 LD |
| 2008-01-07 | Earth | 52490.71 | 65,889,450 km 171 LD |
| 2007-06-01 | Mars | 15289.64 | 13,669,213 km 35.6 LD |
| 2004-07-17 | Earth | 21840.48 | 60,408,526 km 157 LD |
| 2000-08-09 | Earth | 24632.81 | 64,289,873 km 167 LD |
| 1998-02-10 | Mars | 17041.81 | 4,286,229 km 11.2 LD |
| 1996-08-31 | Earth | 25761.83 | 63,744,974 km 166 LD |
| 1992-09-21 | Earth | 25322.49 | 59,318,847 km 154 LD |
| 1988-10-14 | Earth | 22954.03 | 51,154,948 km 133 LD |
| 1988-09-26 | Mars | 22454.55 | 10,657,379 km 27.7 LD |
| 1985-04-06 | Earth | 38863.39 | 40,385,238 km 105 LD |
| 1984-11-11 | Earth | 17515.70 | 38,960,776 km 101 LD |
| 1981-03-26 | Earth | 17592.26 | 8,730,576 km 22.7 LD |
| 1977-04-02 | Earth | 13843.78 | 26,804,791 km 69.7 LD |
| 1977-02-22 | Earth | 18972.49 | 26,837,974 km 69.8 LD |
| 1973-06-07 | Earth | 15443.65 | 47,244,074 km 123 LD |
| 1973-01-09 | Earth | 45932.48 | 57,220,954 km 149 LD |
| 1969-07-07 | Earth | 20408.90 | 57,862,228 km 151 LD |
| 1965-07-31 | Earth | 23681.03 | 63,151,656 km 164 LD |
| 1961-08-20 | Earth | 25356.43 | 64,403,976 km 168 LD |
| 1957-09-09 | Earth | 25661.77 | 62,095,031 km 162 LD |
| 1953-09-29 | Earth | 24552.11 | 56,444,606 km 147 LD |
| 1950-04-14 | Earth | 55197.20 | 64,384,625 km 167 LD |
| 1949-10-22 | Earth | 21591.16 | 47,484,712 km 124 LD |
| 1946-04-03 | Earth | 32931.44 | 31,574,446 km 82.1 LD |
| 1945-11-20 | Earth | 15360.56 | 35,181,511 km 91.5 LD |
| 1942-03-24 | Earth | 15353.39 | 7,831,729 km 20.4 LD |
| 1938-04-29 | Earth | 12139.10 | 32,865,843 km 85.5 LD |
| 1938-01-27 | Earth | 26354.05 | 33,343,955 km 86.7 LD |
| 1934-06-15 | Earth | 16867.78 | 50,443,870 km 131 LD |
| 1934-01-05 | Earth | 52119.48 | 65,059,154 km 169 LD |
| 1930-07-14 | Earth | 21383.55 | 59,742,471 km 155 LD |
| 1926-08-05 | Earth | 24297.48 | 63,959,663 km 166 LD |
| 1922-08-26 | Earth | 25627.57 | 64,164,103 km 167 LD |
| 1918-09-15 | Earth | 25486.88 | 60,815,663 km 158 LD |
| 1914-10-06 | Earth | 23797.83 | 54,061,053 km 141 LD |
| 1911-04-10 | Earth | 47859.58 | 53,568,561 km 139 LD |
| 1910-10-30 | Earth | 20034.08 | 43,822,091 km 114 LD |
| 1907-03-30 | Earth | 25972.40 | 20,974,805 km 54.6 LD |
| 1906-12-05 | Earth | 11664.02 | 30,224,694 km 78.6 LD |
| 1903-03-21 | Earth | 13132.22 | 13,474,949 km 35.1 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-02T13:13:36.072695+00:00.