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Designation: 2016 GC221 · NASA id: 3751828
Estimated diameter: 29 – 65 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
470 kilotonnes – 17.5 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 382.6 days (1.05 years) |
| Eccentricity | .1647754999795539 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.031401101317534 AU |
| Inclination | 25.25741686608178° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .861451469168475 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.201350733466593 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01951 AU = 2,918,355 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 23.50190978722224° |
| Argument of perihelion | 279.8500442151103° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 340.1804859607789° / .940941639266991°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.839 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 16:59:44 |
| Observed | 2016-04-13 to 2016-04-15 (2 day arc, 71 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 44 total.
next approach: 2037-04-06
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2084-10-02 | Earth | 50186.36 | 50,036,368 km 130 LD |
| 2084-04-16 | Earth | 46343.82 | 37,732,142 km 98.2 LD |
| 2083-04-14 | Earth | 51197.14 | 5,459,792 km 14.2 LD |
| 2082-04-06 | Earth | 69883.72 | 46,063,508 km 120 LD |
| 2037-04-06 next | Earth | 68968.73 | 44,374,415 km 115 LD |
| 2019-10-31 | Earth | 70610.12 | 45,185,020 km 118 LD |
| 2018-10-18 | Earth | 51738.82 | 3,222,691 km 8.38 LD |
| 2017-10-05 | Earth | 48598.50 | 41,598,996 km 108 LD |
| 2017-04-16 | Earth | 47162.58 | 44,829,832 km 117 LD |
| 2016-04-15 | Earth | 49240.86 | 5,147,158 km 13.4 LD |
| 2015-04-08 | Earth | 65757.62 | 38,372,303 km 99.8 LD |
| 1996-10-27 | Earth | 64517.50 | 33,611,513 km 87.4 LD |
| 1995-10-15 | Earth | 49252.30 | 9,302,181 km 24.2 LD |
| 1994-10-02 | Earth | 50679.30 | 51,666,780 km 134 LD |
| 1994-04-17 | Earth | 46265.49 | 35,146,846 km 91.4 LD |
| 1993-04-13 | Earth | 52111.41 | 7,753,948 km 20.2 LD |
| 1992-04-05 | Earth | 71508.72 | 49,122,277 km 128 LD |
| 1974-10-31 | Earth | 71955.99 | 47,807,378 km 124 LD |
| 1973-10-19 | Earth | 52588.79 | 5,298,313 km 13.8 LD |
| 1972-10-06 | Earth | 48165.11 | 38,112,041 km 99.1 LD |
| 1972-04-15 | Earth | 47693.96 | 48,038,305 km 125 LD |
| 1971-04-16 | Earth | 48396.46 | 8,044,553 km 20.9 LD |
| 1970-04-08 | Earth | 63609.13 | 34,201,598 km 89.0 LD |
| 1969-03-30 | Earth | 86581.98 | 74,578,087 km 194 LD |
| 1951-10-30 | Earth | 70304.10 | 44,724,254 km 116 LD |
| 1950-10-18 | Earth | 52133.23 | 4,024,383 km 10.5 LD |
| 1949-10-06 | Earth | 48215.12 | 38,286,614 km 99.6 LD |
| 1949-04-15 | Earth | 47762.58 | 48,170,037 km 125 LD |
| 1948-04-15 | Earth | 48075.02 | 9,408,625 km 24.5 LD |
| 1947-04-09 | Earth | 62162.26 | 31,181,259 km 81.1 LD |
| 1946-03-31 | Earth | 84020.52 | 70,330,463 km 183 LD |
| 1928-11-07 | Earth | 86392.18 | 72,347,727 km 188 LD |
| 1927-10-27 | Earth | 64006.40 | 32,561,799 km 84.7 LD |
| 1926-10-15 | Earth | 49433.83 | 8,545,113 km 22.2 LD |
| 1925-10-03 | Earth | 50114.10 | 49,138,855 km 128 LD |
| 1925-04-16 | Earth | 46518.42 | 37,779,916 km 98.3 LD |
| 1924-04-13 | Earth | 50712.47 | 4,316,441 km 11.2 LD |
| 1923-04-06 | Earth | 68247.30 | 43,123,212 km 112 LD |
| 1904-10-28 | Earth | 67858.72 | 40,291,987 km 105 LD |
| 1903-10-17 | Earth | 50935.75 | 3,088,858 km 8.04 LD |
| 1902-10-05 | Earth | 49098.88 | 43,949,358 km 114 LD |
| 1902-04-16 | Earth | 46928.50 | 41,814,366 km 109 LD |
| 1901-04-14 | Earth | 49961.84 | 3,943,608 km 10.3 LD |
| 1900-04-06 | Earth | 66955.99 | 40,933,152 km 106 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T23:04:53.807193+00:00.