Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2016 JG38)

Designation: 2016 JG38 · NASA id: 3753578

Estimated diameter: 42 – 93 meters

≈ an airliner's wingspan
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 24.02) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 7.1 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

824 kilotonnes – 30.7 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period738.0 days (2.02 years)
Eccentricity.4558780144452437 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.598215307574326 AU
Inclination3.721988399517605° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.8696240865013478 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance2.326806528647304 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.01890 AU = 2,827,864 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude29.53888385513469°
Argument of perihelion288.39957338405°
Mean anomaly / motion219.8144984087382° / .4878105008494807°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant4.240 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2024-11-02 06:55:21
Observed2016-05-01 to 2024-10-30 (3104 day arc, 53 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 48 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Mars and Venus? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 39 of them were approaches to Earth, 8 of them were approaches to Mars and 1 of them were approaches to Venus.

This one’s path runs from 0.870 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 2.327 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 738.0 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0189 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2026-10-18

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2133-11-02 Earth 83949.47 61,270,713 km
159 LD
2131-10-28 Earth 71955.16 44,613,989 km
116 LD
2129-10-22 Earth 60475.61 28,502,541 km
74.1 LD
2127-10-16 Earth 49127.34 12,720,058 km
33.1 LD
2125-10-07 Earth 39542.94 2,710,088 km
7.05 LD
2123-09-21 Earth 31824.37 14,505,959 km
37.7 LD
2121-08-23 Earth 32806.93 22,352,535 km
58.1 LD
2119-07-28 Earth 32472.63 22,486,279 km
58.5 LD
2117-06-30 Earth 31481.43 16,105,347 km
41.9 LD
2115-06-13 Earth 39366.73 7,839,643 km
20.4 LD
2113-06-04 Earth 50252.99 16,459,327 km
42.8 LD
2111-05-28 Earth 61998.29 32,018,627 km
83.3 LD
2109-05-21 Earth 74632.73 49,566,462 km
129 LD
2107-05-16 Earth 87047.43 67,221,075 km
175 LD
2103-10-12 Mars 32789.95 7,149,445 km
18.6 LD
2097-01-10 Mars 34335.02 3,064,286 km
7.97 LD
2049-03-26 Mars 34186.10 7,441,788 km
19.4 LD
2042-06-26 Mars 34231.90 2,766,170 km
7.20 LD
2030-11-01 Earth 85860.04 64,127,677 km
167 LD
2028-10-25 Earth 71568.16 44,105,590 km
115 LD
2026-10-18 next Earth 56963.47 23,576,778 km
61.3 LD
2024-10-08 Earth 43101.75 5,061,700 km
13.2 LD
2022-09-26 Earth 33525.14 10,517,762 km
27.4 LD
2020-08-29 Earth 32145.80 20,853,186 km
54.2 LD
2018-08-02 Earth 32856.61 23,074,602 km
60.0 LD
2016-07-04 Earth 31114.35 18,006,875 km
46.8 LD
2014-06-13 Earth 37972.40 8,105,215 km
21.1 LD
2012-06-02 Earth 49076.41 15,008,711 km
39.0 LD
2010-05-27 Earth 61049.28 30,745,776 km
80.0 LD
2008-05-19 Earth 73619.40 48,269,518 km
126 LD
2006-05-14 Earth 86144.76 65,994,095 km
172 LD
1994-09-10 Mars 35872.45 9,887,990 km
25.7 LD
1987-12-11 Mars 31548.85 5,076,939 km
13.2 LD
1947-12-10 Venus 15069.11 21,553,213 km
56.1 LD
1923-11-01 Earth 85859.10 64,244,968 km
167 LD
1921-10-25 Earth 73615.59 47,072,781 km
122 LD
1919-10-20 Earth 60997.13 29,313,020 km
76.3 LD
1917-10-12 Earth 49479.61 13,550,944 km
35.3 LD
1915-10-04 Earth 39381.94 3,310,763 km
8.61 LD
1913-09-16 Earth 31704.69 15,006,669 km
39.0 LD
1911-12-07 Mars 35088.40 8,314,484 km
21.6 LD
1911-08-20 Earth 32592.52 22,307,306 km
58.0 LD
1909-07-24 Earth 32438.91 22,513,283 km
58.6 LD
1907-06-26 Earth 31847.11 15,203,702 km
39.6 LD
1905-06-09 Earth 40207.50 7,317,273 km
19.0 LD
1905-03-09 Mars 30835.19 6,991,251 km
18.2 LD
1903-05-31 Earth 51420.79 17,710,568 km
46.1 LD
1901-05-24 Earth 63805.29 34,484,252 km
89.7 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-15T22:00:37.384340+00:00.