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Designation: 2016 TQ54 · NASA id: 3760682
· Sentry Object
Estimated diameter: 10 – 22 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
11 kilotonnes – 422 kilotonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU
| Orbital period | 334.5 days (0.92 years) |
| Eccentricity | .2894694108090413 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | .9429553105317207 AU |
| Inclination | 1.366119787813233° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .669998592372847 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.215912028690594 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.00079 AU = 118,090 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 7.709849288329695° |
| Argument of perihelion | 243.6150037493525° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 78.45706375116998° / 1.07638443198292°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.333 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 17:50:40 |
| Observed | 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-10 (4 day arc, 11 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 44 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 34 of them were approaches to Earth, 8 of them were approaches to Venus and 2 of them were approaches to Moon.
This one’s path runs from 0.670 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.216 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 334.5 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0008 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
an approach today (2026-10-17) — next after that: 2027-10-05
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2118-05-04 | Venus | 41159.85 | 11,332,743 km 29.5 LD |
| 2118-01-27 | Earth | 64651.90 | 43,572,866 km 113 LD |
| 2116-07-03 | Venus | 52419.60 | 20,976,255 km 54.6 LD |
| 2116-06-07 | Earth | 42761.58 | 51,321,177 km 134 LD |
| 2114-10-14 | Earth | 68392.50 | 48,985,457 km 127 LD |
| 2074-01-19 | Earth | 82709.68 | 67,075,761 km 174 LD |
| 2073-02-04 | Earth | 26371.51 | 8,735,020 km 22.7 LD |
| 2072-05-17 | Earth | 41692.03 | 50,363,434 km 131 LD |
| 2070-10-07 | Earth | 52283.90 | 27,257,364 km 70.9 LD |
| 2063-01-18 | Earth | 88489.61 | 74,642,189 km 194 LD |
| 2062-02-05 | Earth | 30848.07 | 3,304,929 km 8.60 LD |
| 2059-10-07 | Earth | 50942.67 | 25,504,610 km 66.3 LD |
| 2052-01-22 | Earth | 77434.01 | 60,241,872 km 157 LD |
| 2048-10-11 | Earth | 63749.91 | 42,649,562 km 111 LD |
| 2041-01-26 | Earth | 63129.58 | 41,452,353 km 108 LD |
| 2039-06-14 | Earth | 42608.52 | 51,376,794 km 134 LD |
| 2038-10-08 | Earth | 22453.03 | 15,795,157 km 41.1 LD |
| 2037-10-16 | Earth | 77118.54 | 60,382,704 km 157 LD |
| 2035-09-11 | Venus | 47071.36 | 17,183,876 km 44.7 LD |
| 2033-11-14 | Venus | 29819.02 | 6,021,382 km 15.7 LD |
| 2032-02-01 | Venus | 23823.92 | 8,583,486 km 22.3 LD |
| 2030-04-26 | Venus | 23955.57 | 6,017,593 km 15.7 LD |
| 2030-01-29 | Earth | 57539.57 | 33,940,209 km 88.3 LD |
| 2029-04-03 | Earth | 27796.76 | 39,279,165 km 102 LD |
| 2028-12-28 | Earth | 25364.51 | 31,312,525 km 81.5 LD |
| 2028-07-05 | Venus | 33249.50 | 4,641,983 km 12.1 LD |
| 2028-06-16 | Earth | 42214.50 | 51,116,663 km 133 LD |
| 2027-10-05 next | Earth | 23790.61 | 12,809,774 km 33.3 LD |
| 2026-10-17 today | Earth | 79139.35 | 63,040,348 km 164 LD |
| 2026-09-07 | Venus | 50609.04 | 19,246,563 km 50.1 LD |
| 2019-01-31 | Earth | 50731.24 | 25,106,073 km 65.3 LD |
| 2018-04-16 | Earth | 33011.37 | 43,557,927 km 113 LD |
| 2017-12-16 | Earth | 26434.62 | 33,576,622 km 87.3 LD |
| 2017-06-28 | Earth | 40241.02 | 49,787,381 km 130 LD |
| 2016-10-02 | Earth | 31690.96 | 962,907 km 2.50 LD |
| 2016-10-01 | Moon | 30571.35 | 1,114,917 km 2.90 LD |
| 2015-10-19 | Earth | 83487.06 | 68,886,935 km 179 LD |
| 2007-02-06 | Earth | 35797.52 | 5,635,307 km 14.7 LD |
| 2006-05-01 | Earth | 37214.90 | 46,563,960 km 121 LD |
| 2005-12-07 | Earth | 26939.79 | 35,480,465 km 92.3 LD |
| 2005-07-05 | Earth | 38086.73 | 47,888,834 km 125 LD |
| 2004-10-02 | Moon | 34881.27 | 353,134 km 0.92 LD — closer than the Moon |
| 2004-10-02 | Earth | 31887.53 | 690,063 km 1.80 LD |
| 2003-10-16 | Earth | 75480.93 | 58,590,428 km 152 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-12T16:34:22.560521+00:00.