Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2016 TQ54)

Designation: 2016 TQ54 · NASA id: 3760682 · Sentry Object

Estimated diameter: 10 – 22 meters

≈ a city bus
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 27.2) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
On a monitored risk list
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 0.9 lunar distances.
  • It is on the Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance above zero — 2,207 of them. Being listed is not by itself a warning.
  • The computed chance is about 1 in 554,209, over the window 2082–2120.
  • Palermo -7.11 — below zero, meaning less than the background risk from everything not yet found.
  • Torino 0.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

11 kilotonnes – 422 kilotonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU

Orbital period334.5 days (0.92 years)
Eccentricity.2894694108090413 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis.9429553105317207 AU
Inclination1.366119787813233° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.669998592372847 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.215912028690594 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00079 AU = 118,090 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude7.709849288329695°
Argument of perihelion243.6150037493525°
Mean anomaly / motion78.45706375116998° / 1.07638443198292°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant6.333 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 17:50:40
Observed2016-10-06 to 2016-10-10 (4 day arc, 11 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 44 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Venus and Moon? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 34 of them were approaches to Earth, 8 of them were approaches to Venus and 2 of them were approaches to Moon.

This one’s path runs from 0.670 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.216 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 334.5 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0008 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

an approach today (2026-10-17) — next after that: 2027-10-05

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2118-05-04 Venus 41159.85 11,332,743 km
29.5 LD
2118-01-27 Earth 64651.90 43,572,866 km
113 LD
2116-07-03 Venus 52419.60 20,976,255 km
54.6 LD
2116-06-07 Earth 42761.58 51,321,177 km
134 LD
2114-10-14 Earth 68392.50 48,985,457 km
127 LD
2074-01-19 Earth 82709.68 67,075,761 km
174 LD
2073-02-04 Earth 26371.51 8,735,020 km
22.7 LD
2072-05-17 Earth 41692.03 50,363,434 km
131 LD
2070-10-07 Earth 52283.90 27,257,364 km
70.9 LD
2063-01-18 Earth 88489.61 74,642,189 km
194 LD
2062-02-05 Earth 30848.07 3,304,929 km
8.60 LD
2059-10-07 Earth 50942.67 25,504,610 km
66.3 LD
2052-01-22 Earth 77434.01 60,241,872 km
157 LD
2048-10-11 Earth 63749.91 42,649,562 km
111 LD
2041-01-26 Earth 63129.58 41,452,353 km
108 LD
2039-06-14 Earth 42608.52 51,376,794 km
134 LD
2038-10-08 Earth 22453.03 15,795,157 km
41.1 LD
2037-10-16 Earth 77118.54 60,382,704 km
157 LD
2035-09-11 Venus 47071.36 17,183,876 km
44.7 LD
2033-11-14 Venus 29819.02 6,021,382 km
15.7 LD
2032-02-01 Venus 23823.92 8,583,486 km
22.3 LD
2030-04-26 Venus 23955.57 6,017,593 km
15.7 LD
2030-01-29 Earth 57539.57 33,940,209 km
88.3 LD
2029-04-03 Earth 27796.76 39,279,165 km
102 LD
2028-12-28 Earth 25364.51 31,312,525 km
81.5 LD
2028-07-05 Venus 33249.50 4,641,983 km
12.1 LD
2028-06-16 Earth 42214.50 51,116,663 km
133 LD
2027-10-05 next Earth 23790.61 12,809,774 km
33.3 LD
2026-10-17 today Earth 79139.35 63,040,348 km
164 LD
2026-09-07 Venus 50609.04 19,246,563 km
50.1 LD
2019-01-31 Earth 50731.24 25,106,073 km
65.3 LD
2018-04-16 Earth 33011.37 43,557,927 km
113 LD
2017-12-16 Earth 26434.62 33,576,622 km
87.3 LD
2017-06-28 Earth 40241.02 49,787,381 km
130 LD
2016-10-02 Earth 31690.96 962,907 km
2.50 LD
2016-10-01 Moon 30571.35 1,114,917 km
2.90 LD
2015-10-19 Earth 83487.06 68,886,935 km
179 LD
2007-02-06 Earth 35797.52 5,635,307 km
14.7 LD
2006-05-01 Earth 37214.90 46,563,960 km
121 LD
2005-12-07 Earth 26939.79 35,480,465 km
92.3 LD
2005-07-05 Earth 38086.73 47,888,834 km
125 LD
2004-10-02 Moon 34881.27 353,134 km
0.92 LD — closer than the Moon
2004-10-02 Earth 31887.53 690,063 km
1.80 LD
2003-10-16 Earth 75480.93 58,590,428 km
152 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-12T16:34:22.560521+00:00.