Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2016 VZ1)

Designation: 2016 VZ1 · NASA id: 3763339

Estimated diameter: 16 – 36 meters

≈ the Chelyabinsk object
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 26.1) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 6.4 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

67 kilotonnes – 2.5 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period405.4 days (1.11 years)
Eccentricity.1384361648308106 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.072058515332818 AU
Inclination23.99814272537303° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.9236468459959299 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.220470184669706 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.01373 AU = 2,054,398 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude224.1690106581709°
Argument of perihelion250.7042301190691°
Mean anomaly / motion354.7041222157429° / .8879251100025883°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.675 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 18:11:52
Observed2016-11-06 to 2016-11-08 (2 day arc, 41 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 50 total.

next approach: 2026-11-05

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2200-05-07 Earth 43463.37 31,179,391 km
81.1 LD
2199-11-08 Earth 47101.55 2,459,817 km
6.40 LD
2130-05-08 Earth 74085.89 70,370,806 km
183 LD
2129-05-06 Earth 43326.03 28,594,810 km
74.4 LD
2128-11-08 Earth 46621.11 2,522,100 km
6.56 LD
2119-05-03 Earth 44291.31 13,950,409 km
36.3 LD
2118-11-12 Earth 45336.38 24,040,121 km
62.5 LD
2109-05-02 Earth 49250.93 20,943,237 km
54.5 LD
2108-11-15 Earth 49525.71 47,596,355 km
124 LD
2108-05-30 Earth 45793.36 70,622,150 km
184 LD
2107-10-27 Earth 67477.10 52,777,412 km
137 LD
2099-05-03 Earth 59132.80 43,064,464 km
112 LD
2098-11-12 Earth 57816.85 73,031,855 km
190 LD
2098-05-13 Earth 45384.03 51,033,036 km
133 LD
2097-11-01 Earth 55097.23 26,803,339 km
69.7 LD
2089-05-06 Earth 71468.74 65,935,526 km
172 LD
2088-05-05 Earth 43483.17 31,141,052 km
81.0 LD
2087-11-07 Earth 47244.88 2,855,140 km
7.43 LD
2078-05-04 Earth 43289.62 23,989,874 km
62.4 LD
2077-11-08 Earth 45839.12 6,942,670 km
18.1 LD
2068-05-01 Earth 44087.02 14,826,948 km
38.6 LD
2067-11-11 Earth 45225.29 21,615,432 km
56.2 LD
2058-05-01 Earth 46645.93 15,038,891 km
39.1 LD
2057-11-13 Earth 47103.55 37,270,843 km
97.0 LD
2056-10-22 Earth 73557.05 63,832,478 km
166 LD
2048-05-01 Earth 51972.96 27,842,091 km
72.4 LD
2047-11-14 Earth 51946.14 55,563,427 km
145 LD
2047-05-23 Earth 46261.92 64,796,145 km
169 LD
2046-10-27 Earth 63699.61 45,460,545 km
118 LD
2038-05-03 Earth 60085.14 45,135,865 km
117 LD
2037-05-12 Earth 45233.94 49,682,727 km
129 LD
2036-11-01 Earth 54616.54 25,731,732 km
66.9 LD
2028-05-05 Earth 69179.74 62,067,499 km
161 LD
2027-05-07 Earth 43758.19 35,070,844 km
91.2 LD
2026-11-05 next Earth 48536.66 7,657,095 km
19.9 LD
2018-05-07 Earth 74890.17 72,121,911 km
188 LD
2017-05-04 Earth 43315.07 27,201,034 km
70.8 LD
2016-11-07 Earth 46462.82 3,142,412 km
8.17 LD
2007-05-02 Earth 44457.54 13,624,159 km
35.4 LD
2006-11-11 Earth 45451.83 24,975,903 km
65.0 LD
1997-05-01 Earth 49573.07 22,056,341 km
57.4 LD
1996-11-13 Earth 49852.90 48,374,323 km
126 LD
1995-10-26 Earth 67095.84 52,089,818 km
136 LD
1987-05-03 Earth 59366.90 43,704,358 km
114 LD
1986-11-12 Earth 58091.38 73,143,689 km
190 LD
1985-10-31 Earth 55080.72 26,848,801 km
69.8 LD
1977-05-06 Earth 71091.17 65,537,197 km
170 LD
1975-11-06 Earth 47509.12 3,709,625 km
9.65 LD
1966-05-04 Earth 43277.97 24,885,575 km
64.7 LD
1965-11-08 Earth 46056.62 5,416,705 km
14.1 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T09:56:02.550244+00:00.