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Designation: 2017 ST20 · NASA id: 3782011
Estimated diameter: 79 – 177 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
3.3 megatonnes – 123.0 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: AMO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 1221 Amor
1.017 AU < q (perihelion) < 1.3 AU
| Orbital period | 549.3 days (1.50 years) |
| Eccentricity | .171688936987929 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.312679381066898 AU |
| Inclination | 15.42019420027231° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | 1.08730685352555 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.538051908608247 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.22509 AU = 33,672,536 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 188.6365507263008° |
| Argument of perihelion | 268.5504303936551° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 86.78775410904038° / .6553390971458375°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 4.918 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-10-17 07:41:12 |
| Observed | 2014-09-23 to 2023-10-16 (3310 day arc, 121 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 82 total.
next approach: 2026-10-18
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2199-09-02 | Earth | 30175.32 | 72,292,422 km 188 LD |
| 2196-09-08 | Earth | 30391.59 | 68,072,914 km 177 LD |
| 2193-09-14 | Earth | 30501.05 | 63,620,945 km 166 LD |
| 2190-09-20 | Earth | 30498.80 | 59,070,325 km 154 LD |
| 2187-09-26 | Earth | 30390.66 | 54,482,427 km 142 LD |
| 2184-09-30 | Earth | 30193.43 | 49,973,352 km 130 LD |
| 2181-10-05 | Earth | 29942.27 | 45,746,063 km 119 LD |
| 2178-10-10 | Earth | 29678.38 | 41,918,159 km 109 LD |
| 2175-10-15 | Earth | 29455.42 | 38,732,963 km 101 LD |
| 2172-10-18 | Earth | 29316.32 | 36,244,306 km 94.3 LD |
| 2169-10-22 | Earth | 29297.52 | 34,709,527 km 90.3 LD |
| 2167-02-11 | Earth | 33317.36 | 49,996,118 km 130 LD |
| 2166-10-26 | Earth | 29431.72 | 34,078,919 km 88.7 LD |
| 2164-02-16 | Earth | 32625.71 | 45,897,031 km 119 LD |
| 2163-10-30 | Earth | 29726.98 | 34,410,442 km 89.5 LD |
| 2161-02-19 | Earth | 31733.71 | 42,357,414 km 110 LD |
| 2160-11-01 | Earth | 30220.09 | 35,562,330 km 92.5 LD |
| 2158-02-22 | Earth | 30956.32 | 39,490,870 km 103 LD |
| 2157-11-04 | Earth | 30884.35 | 37,517,614 km 97.6 LD |
| 2155-02-26 | Earth | 30307.10 | 37,250,970 km 96.9 LD |
| 2154-11-08 | Earth | 31757.61 | 40,154,281 km 104 LD |
| 2152-02-29 | Earth | 29843.00 | 35,718,608 km 92.9 LD |
| 2151-11-11 | Earth | 32774.43 | 43,423,915 km 113 LD |
| 2149-03-04 | Earth | 29520.59 | 34,977,355 km 91.0 LD |
| 2148-11-14 | Earth | 33977.41 | 47,377,884 km 123 LD |
| 2146-03-08 | Earth | 29378.59 | 35,060,850 km 91.2 LD |
| 2145-11-19 | Earth | 35020.41 | 51,916,478 km 135 LD |
| 2143-03-12 | Earth | 29379.73 | 36,062,012 km 93.8 LD |
| 2140-03-15 | Earth | 29506.89 | 37,881,531 km 98.5 LD |
| 2137-03-19 | Earth | 29735.26 | 40,565,877 km 106 LD |
| 2134-03-24 | Earth | 30013.23 | 43,851,215 km 114 LD |
| 2131-03-29 | Earth | 30313.22 | 47,677,290 km 124 LD |
| 2128-04-02 | Earth | 30570.68 | 51,803,185 km 135 LD |
| 2125-04-08 | Earth | 30773.96 | 56,144,363 km 146 LD |
| 2122-04-13 | Earth | 30875.69 | 60,511,015 km 157 LD |
| 2119-04-19 | Earth | 30880.89 | 64,858,418 km 169 LD |
| 2116-04-24 | Earth | 30757.15 | 69,056,214 km 180 LD |
| 2113-04-30 | Earth | 30546.59 | 73,052,887 km 190 LD |
| 2056-08-29 | Earth | 29912.88 | 73,832,148 km 192 LD |
| 2053-09-04 | Earth | 30195.81 | 69,848,117 km 182 LD |
| 2050-09-10 | Earth | 30384.69 | 65,665,973 km 171 LD |
| 2047-09-16 | Earth | 30450.60 | 61,285,524 km 159 LD |
| 2044-09-20 | Earth | 30412.77 | 56,853,153 km 148 LD |
| 2041-09-26 | Earth | 30261.61 | 52,377,137 km 136 LD |
| 2038-10-01 | Earth | 30047.61 | 48,093,522 km 125 LD |
| 2035-10-06 | Earth | 29791.53 | 44,072,320 km 115 LD |
| 2032-10-10 | Earth | 29550.37 | 40,524,494 km 105 LD |
| 2029-10-14 | Earth | 29359.93 | 37,525,325 km 97.6 LD |
| 2026-10-18 next | Earth | 29273.39 | 35,370,562 km 92.0 LD |
| 2023-10-22 | Earth | 29322.45 | 34,047,603 km 88.6 LD |
| 2021-02-08 | Earth | 32569.61 | 49,197,508 km 128 LD |
| 2020-10-25 | Earth | 29521.26 | 33,666,464 km 87.6 LD |
| 2018-02-14 | Earth | 31990.58 | 45,327,519 km 118 LD |
| 2017-10-28 | Earth | 29906.04 | 34,157,498 km 88.9 LD |
| 2015-02-18 | Earth | 31283.38 | 42,064,644 km 109 LD |
| 2014-10-31 | Earth | 30454.14 | 35,493,540 km 92.3 LD |
| 2012-02-21 | Earth | 30608.74 | 39,395,273 km 102 LD |
| 2011-11-04 | Earth | 31207.47 | 37,597,063 km 97.8 LD |
| 2009-02-24 | Earth | 30086.39 | 37,316,149 km 97.1 LD |
| 2008-11-06 | Earth | 32145.35 | 40,357,769 km 105 LD |
| 2006-02-28 | Earth | 29681.67 | 35,968,484 km 93.6 LD |
| 2005-11-09 | Earth | 33315.30 | 43,859,966 km 114 LD |
| 2003-03-03 | Earth | 29439.12 | 35,348,797 km 92.0 LD |
| 2002-11-13 | Earth | 34620.08 | 47,953,032 km 125 LD |
| 2000-03-06 | Earth | 29343.54 | 35,609,486 km 92.6 LD |
| 1999-11-17 | Earth | 35903.30 | 52,768,499 km 137 LD |
| 1997-03-10 | Earth | 29390.07 | 36,693,125 km 95.5 LD |
| 1994-03-14 | Earth | 29556.35 | 38,694,450 km 101 LD |
| 1991-03-19 | Earth | 29811.31 | 41,431,119 km 108 LD |
| 1988-03-23 | Earth | 30108.47 | 44,815,855 km 117 LD |
| 1985-03-28 | Earth | 30407.35 | 48,659,288 km 127 LD |
| 1982-04-02 | Earth | 30671.43 | 52,806,866 km 137 LD |
| 1979-04-07 | Earth | 30864.80 | 57,116,040 km 149 LD |
| 1976-04-12 | Earth | 30969.49 | 61,478,461 km 160 LD |
| 1973-04-18 | Earth | 30969.36 | 65,806,859 km 171 LD |
| 1970-04-24 | Earth | 30865.53 | 69,944,392 km 182 LD |
| 1967-04-30 | Earth | 30659.61 | 73,891,134 km 192 LD |
| 1913-08-29 | Earth | 29820.92 | 73,553,314 km 191 LD |
| 1910-09-04 | Earth | 30117.73 | 69,133,456 km 180 LD |
| 1907-09-11 | Earth | 30285.33 | 64,489,795 km 168 LD |
| 1904-09-16 | Earth | 30309.44 | 59,599,914 km 155 LD |
| 1901-09-22 | Earth | 30215.91 | 54,672,271 km 142 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-15T14:41:28.986673+00:00.