← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived
Designation: 2018 ER1 · NASA id: 3799826
Estimated diameter: 19 – 43 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
36 kilotonnes – 1.4 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 370.9 days (1.02 years) |
| Eccentricity | .09247892687803762 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.010240538140689 AU |
| Inclination | 6.386323552753449° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .9168145772847471 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.103666498996632 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01290 AU = 1,929,857 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 187.8103733582995° |
| Argument of perihelion | 101.335170319599° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 105.6822561546659° / .9706594489430473°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.023 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2023-09-30 06:19:32 |
| Observed | 2018-03-08 to 2018-04-05 (28 day arc, 63 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 5 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 66 total.
next approach: 2026-10-21
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2185-10-22 | Earth | 51067.07 | 52,426,590 km 136 LD |
| 2179-04-05 | Earth | 26391.83 | 16,862,644 km 43.9 LD |
| 2178-03-31 | Earth | 39722.84 | 36,601,238 km 95.2 LD |
| 2177-03-26 | Earth | 53825.26 | 56,598,297 km 147 LD |
| 2139-10-27 | Earth | 60961.33 | 66,319,125 km 173 LD |
| 2138-10-22 | Earth | 46565.00 | 46,140,151 km 120 LD |
| 2137-10-15 | Earth | 32689.45 | 25,998,358 km 67.6 LD |
| 2136-10-08 | Earth | 20082.54 | 6,412,473 km 16.7 LD |
| 2135-09-24 | Earth | 12876.11 | 10,885,958 km 28.3 LD |
| 2134-12-20 | Earth | 11587.79 | 24,671,462 km 64.2 LD |
| 2134-07-18 | Earth | 12250.94 | 21,310,181 km 55.4 LD |
| 2134-02-08 | Earth | 13003.04 | 22,823,369 km 59.4 LD |
| 2132-04-05 | Earth | 19921.85 | 6,696,568 km 17.4 LD |
| 2131-04-03 | Earth | 32259.80 | 25,715,171 km 66.9 LD |
| 2130-03-29 | Earth | 46077.76 | 45,642,428 km 119 LD |
| 2129-03-24 | Earth | 60147.41 | 65,568,545 km 171 LD |
| 2091-10-25 | Earth | 57435.42 | 61,468,394 km 160 LD |
| 2090-10-19 | Earth | 43223.46 | 41,388,718 km 108 LD |
| 2089-10-13 | Earth | 29613.24 | 21,382,902 km 55.6 LD |
| 2088-10-05 | Earth | 17732.94 | 2,518,341 km 6.55 LD |
| 2087-09-21 | Earth | 12725.23 | 11,904,840 km 31.0 LD |
| 2086-12-11 | Earth | 11213.14 | 23,998,365 km 62.4 LD |
| 2086-07-25 | Earth | 12468.44 | 21,075,776 km 54.8 LD |
| 2086-01-26 | Earth | 12546.36 | 23,879,731 km 62.1 LD |
| 2085-03-12 | Earth | 12615.87 | 16,331,983 km 42.5 LD |
| 2084-04-02 | Earth | 15381.24 | 3,714,192 km 9.66 LD |
| 2083-04-03 | Earth | 21523.80 | 9,142,256 km 23.8 LD |
| 2082-04-01 | Earth | 30125.43 | 22,562,867 km 58.7 LD |
| 2081-03-29 | Earth | 39774.79 | 36,693,347 km 95.5 LD |
| 2080-03-25 | Earth | 49738.31 | 51,015,611 km 133 LD |
| 2079-03-22 | Earth | 60018.29 | 65,428,016 km 170 LD |
| 2027-10-26 | Earth | 56796.90 | 60,757,166 km 158 LD |
| 2026-10-21 next | Earth | 46586.50 | 46,282,382 km 120 LD |
| 2025-10-17 | Earth | 36537.69 | 31,867,610 km 82.9 LD |
| 2024-10-12 | Earth | 27164.36 | 17,786,736 km 46.3 LD |
| 2023-10-08 | Earth | 19059.63 | 4,798,556 km 12.5 LD |
| 2022-10-02 | Earth | 14497.97 | 5,638,460 km 14.7 LD |
| 2021-09-04 | Earth | 12826.67 | 16,264,344 km 42.3 LD |
| 2020-12-25 | Earth | 11337.56 | 24,497,885 km 63.7 LD |
| 2020-07-16 | Earth | 12086.31 | 21,753,973 km 56.6 LD |
| 2020-02-02 | Earth | 12566.62 | 23,118,364 km 60.1 LD |
| 2019-03-12 | Earth | 12710.16 | 16,438,611 km 42.8 LD |
| 2018-04-02 | Earth | 14297.19 | 5,960,687 km 15.5 LD |
| 2017-04-04 | Earth | 18878.93 | 4,878,123 km 12.7 LD |
| 2016-04-02 | Earth | 26919.84 | 17,693,340 km 46.0 LD |
| 2015-03-31 | Earth | 36211.34 | 31,698,028 km 82.5 LD |
| 2014-03-27 | Earth | 46237.76 | 46,089,582 km 120 LD |
| 2013-03-23 | Earth | 56387.03 | 60,566,922 km 158 LD |
| 1961-10-26 | Earth | 57356.12 | 61,659,493 km 160 LD |
| 1960-10-21 | Earth | 47062.17 | 47,038,787 km 122 LD |
| 1959-10-18 | Earth | 36941.63 | 32,528,608 km 84.6 LD |
| 1958-10-13 | Earth | 27484.87 | 18,369,631 km 47.8 LD |
| 1957-10-08 | Earth | 19315.60 | 5,148,829 km 13.4 LD |
| 1956-10-02 | Earth | 14515.58 | 5,527,431 km 14.4 LD |
| 1955-09-04 | Earth | 12872.40 | 16,523,026 km 43.0 LD |
| 1954-12-28 | Earth | 11387.00 | 24,594,889 km 64.0 LD |
| 1954-07-13 | Earth | 11853.67 | 21,869,304 km 56.9 LD |
| 1954-02-06 | Earth | 12619.15 | 22,707,098 km 59.1 LD |
| 1953-03-18 | Earth | 12707.30 | 15,043,321 km 39.1 LD |
| 1952-04-03 | Earth | 15057.92 | 4,219,756 km 11.0 LD |
| 1951-04-05 | Earth | 19774.78 | 6,320,228 km 16.4 LD |
| 1950-04-03 | Earth | 27190.58 | 18,255,308 km 47.5 LD |
| 1949-03-31 | Earth | 35811.84 | 31,204,305 km 81.2 LD |
| 1948-03-28 | Earth | 45034.83 | 44,523,625 km 116 LD |
| 1947-03-25 | Earth | 54491.13 | 58,019,308 km 151 LD |
| 1946-03-22 | Earth | 64154.45 | 71,545,360 km 186 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T16:54:50.244677+00:00.