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Designation: 2018 FM3 · NASA id: 3802052
Estimated diameter: 10 – 22 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
4 kilotonnes – 156 kilotonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 372.8 days (1.02 years) |
| Eccentricity | .08985556547741098 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.013778596679 AU |
| Inclination | 4.561834152910546° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .922684947605512 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.104872245752488 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.01479 AU = 2,213,196 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 181.6935243424535° |
| Argument of perihelion | 255.7669528731367° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 279.2389254070977° / .9655825240723359°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.009 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 20:24:54 |
| Observed | 2018-03-20 to 2018-04-05 (16 day arc, 47 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 5 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 37 total.
next approach: 2062-08-21
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2074-03-22 | Earth | 56331.64 | 66,516,819 km 173 LD |
| 2073-03-18 | Earth | 45845.23 | 51,713,054 km 135 LD |
| 2072-03-13 | Earth | 35348.49 | 36,969,332 km 96.2 LD |
| 2071-03-11 | Earth | 25385.61 | 22,570,875 km 58.7 LD |
| 2070-03-09 | Earth | 16405.93 | 9,214,229 km 24.0 LD |
| 2069-03-13 | Earth | 10831.36 | 3,642,111 km 9.47 LD |
| 2067-06-10 | Earth | 8298.16 | 17,680,490 km 46.0 LD |
| 2066-10-05 | Earth | 9511.52 | 8,451,281 km 22.0 LD |
| 2065-09-14 | Earth | 13328.71 | 3,850,531 km 10.0 LD |
| 2064-09-04 | Earth | 24194.67 | 20,861,487 km 54.3 LD |
| 2063-08-28 | Earth | 36676.44 | 39,240,862 km 102 LD |
| 2062-08-21 next | Earth | 49646.52 | 57,807,992 km 150 LD |
| 2022-03-25 | Earth | 61056.28 | 72,921,450 km 190 LD |
| 2021-03-19 | Earth | 47721.05 | 54,129,951 km 141 LD |
| 2020-03-13 | Earth | 34288.53 | 35,283,502 km 91.8 LD |
| 2019-03-09 | Earth | 21548.33 | 16,854,695 km 43.8 LD |
| 2018-03-11 | Earth | 11397.67 | 3,373,754 km 8.78 LD |
| 2017-04-24 | Earth | 9711.34 | 14,376,311 km 37.4 LD |
| 2016-11-30 | Earth | 8812.82 | 14,305,425 km 37.2 LD |
| 2016-06-27 | Earth | 7901.41 | 17,754,025 km 46.2 LD |
| 2015-09-22 | Earth | 10552.67 | 3,574,508 km 9.30 LD |
| 2014-09-11 | Earth | 17701.48 | 10,735,864 km 27.9 LD |
| 2013-09-04 | Earth | 27923.25 | 26,122,601 km 68.0 LD |
| 2012-08-29 | Earth | 38965.91 | 42,197,638 km 110 LD |
| 2011-08-24 | Earth | 50398.73 | 58,456,810 km 152 LD |
| 2010-08-18 | Earth | 61710.95 | 74,649,365 km 194 LD |
| 1965-03-26 | Earth | 55366.19 | 64,671,534 km 168 LD |
| 1964-03-21 | Earth | 43722.67 | 48,204,579 km 125 LD |
| 1963-03-17 | Earth | 32066.51 | 31,807,361 km 82.7 LD |
| 1962-03-13 | Earth | 21158.79 | 15,915,340 km 41.4 LD |
| 1961-03-13 | Earth | 12219.70 | 2,982,099 km 7.76 LD |
| 1960-03-30 | Earth | 9259.68 | 9,135,430 km 23.8 LD |
| 1956-09-17 | Earth | 12595.64 | 3,001,300 km 7.81 LD |
| 1955-09-08 | Earth | 22196.25 | 17,373,418 km 45.2 LD |
| 1954-09-01 | Earth | 33496.93 | 33,951,590 km 88.3 LD |
| 1953-08-26 | Earth | 45385.77 | 50,960,894 km 133 LD |
| 1952-08-19 | Earth | 57393.55 | 68,014,889 km 177 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-02T14:13:28.675889+00:00.