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Designation: 2018 MC5 · NASA id: 3825431
· Sentry Object
Estimated diameter: 23 – 51 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
51 kilotonnes – 1.9 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 587.8 days (1.61 years) |
| Eccentricity | .2649454233966114 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.373216224086824 AU |
| Inclination | 1.029601958668375° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | 1.009388870181045 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.737043577992604 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.00132 AU = 197,385 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 323.2692891275443° |
| Argument of perihelion | 354.4988108345503° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 192.6921690328098° / .6124853215944613°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 4.780 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2024-02-04 05:29:57 |
| Observed | 2018-06-12 to 2018-11-12 (153 day arc, 54 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 5 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 17 total.
next approach: 2034-04-20
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2068-11-20 | Earth | 22073.81 | 67,740,064 km 176 LD |
| 2068-06-08 | Earth | 58447.23 | 59,659,795 km 155 LD |
| 2063-10-11 | Earth | 67185.34 | 71,705,149 km 187 LD |
| 2063-04-20 | Earth | 23673.48 | 73,201,615 km 190 LD |
| 2055-09-11 | Earth | 21413.25 | 8,443,042 km 22.0 LD |
| 2047-06-26 | Earth | 30328.15 | 20,187,324 km 52.5 LD |
| 2039-11-26 | Earth | 24321.88 | 72,513,893 km 189 LD |
| 2039-06-05 | Earth | 65510.25 | 69,727,078 km 181 LD |
| 2034-10-09 | Earth | 65716.66 | 69,650,164 km 181 LD |
| 2034-04-20 next | Earth | 23324.03 | 72,171,035 km 188 LD |
| 2026-09-19 | Earth | 29978.02 | 19,518,493 km 50.8 LD |
| 2018-07-05 | Earth | 21446.09 | 8,478,886 km 22.1 LD |
| 2010-11-25 | Earth | 24122.17 | 72,205,963 km 188 LD |
| 2010-06-05 | Earth | 64994.03 | 68,932,691 km 179 LD |
| 2005-10-06 | Earth | 61372.35 | 63,408,977 km 165 LD |
| 2005-04-24 | Earth | 21808.33 | 69,309,794 km 180 LD |
| 1997-09-01 | Earth | 17318.19 | 3,233,358 km 8.41 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-14T08:06:15.614756+00:00.