Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2018 PZ21)

Designation: 2018 PZ21 · NASA id: 3826795 · Sentry Object

Estimated diameter: 12 – 27 meters

≈ the Chelyabinsk object
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 26.7) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
On a monitored risk list
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 1.0 lunar distances.
  • It is on the Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance above zero — 2,207 of them. Being listed is not by itself a warning.
  • The computed chance is about 1 in 24,842, over the window 2045–2122.
  • Palermo -5.31 — below zero, meaning less than the background risk from everything not yet found.
  • Torino 0.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

17 kilotonnes – 622 kilotonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU

Orbital period289.3 days (0.79 years)
Eccentricity.2568545552553038 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis.8559865878172456 AU
Inclination3.146541907902775° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.6361225334989419 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.075850642135549 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00116 AU = 173,809 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude308.5422887262285°
Argument of perihelion215.2274780420722°
Mean anomaly / motion205.2613022279516° / 1.244525025507542°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant6.862 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 20:35:32
Observed2018-08-11 to 2018-09-05 (25 day arc, 19 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 86 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Venus and Moon? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 68 of them were approaches to Earth, 17 of them were approaches to Venus and 1 of them were approaches to Moon.

This one’s path runs from 0.636 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.076 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 289.3 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0012 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

an approach today (2026-10-17) — next after that: 2026-12-09

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2119-07-30 Earth 22537.64 678,936 km
1.77 LD
2119-07-30 Moon 25249.05 370,904 km
0.96 LD — closer than the Moon
2116-01-08 Earth 29227.51 42,766,774 km
111 LD
2115-07-29 Earth 25041.25 3,281,380 km
8.54 LD
2112-01-24 Earth 35858.82 47,703,071 km
124 LD
2111-07-29 Earth 36709.88 19,165,529 km
49.9 LD
2111-05-13 Venus 23005.06 15,374,489 km
40.0 LD
2108-02-09 Earth 40550.06 51,137,142 km
133 LD
2107-08-01 Earth 49776.06 36,584,848 km
95.2 LD
2105-08-31 Venus 39085.51 7,051,107 km
18.3 LD
2104-02-24 Earth 42863.95 52,961,037 km
138 LD
2103-08-05 Earth 61904.89 52,576,802 km
137 LD
2100-10-06 Earth 73007.43 67,714,544 km
176 LD
2100-03-09 Earth 43233.14 53,570,330 km
139 LD
2099-08-08 Earth 73133.63 67,502,193 km
176 LD
2096-10-09 Earth 61645.99 52,846,304 km
137 LD
2096-03-21 Earth 42005.88 53,166,973 km
138 LD
2092-10-13 Earth 50109.21 37,962,397 km
98.8 LD
2092-04-03 Earth 39219.01 51,726,857 km
135 LD
2092-02-13 Venus 49705.16 16,592,039 km
43.2 LD
2089-12-01 Venus 45414.06 15,734,238 km
40.9 LD
2088-10-16 Earth 39620.94 24,601,163 km
64.0 LD
2088-04-16 Earth 35259.04 49,364,425 km
128 LD
2084-10-18 Earth 29368.68 12,635,683 km
32.9 LD
2084-04-30 Earth 29943.59 45,877,974 km
119 LD
2080-10-14 Earth 21122.89 7,944,966 km
20.7 LD
2080-05-15 Earth 23627.36 41,541,125 km
108 LD
2076-09-26 Earth 18146.30 11,428,826 km
29.7 LD
2076-06-04 Earth 14520.99 35,802,158 km
93.1 LD
2076-05-09 Venus 21155.34 11,779,971 km
30.6 LD
2072-09-03 Earth 18262.71 12,337,619 km
32.1 LD
2070-08-04 Venus 45293.46 12,796,523 km
33.3 LD
2068-12-14 Earth 19182.52 35,838,639 km
93.2 LD
2068-08-13 Earth 18244.90 9,316,885 km
24.2 LD
2068-05-21 Venus 46398.00 16,684,670 km
43.4 LD
2064-12-27 Earth 25106.55 39,846,892 km
104 LD
2064-08-01 Earth 20419.07 3,611,275 km
9.39 LD
2062-08-12 Venus 30534.10 752,258 km
1.96 LD
2061-01-13 Earth 31720.62 44,774,712 km
116 LD
2060-07-29 Earth 30717.81 11,714,366 km
30.5 LD
2057-02-15 Earth 41603.18 51,990,972 km
135 LD
2057-01-22 Venus 42798.58 10,682,922 km
27.8 LD
2056-08-04 Earth 56204.75 45,715,948 km
119 LD
2053-10-07 Earth 69330.71 63,509,452 km
165 LD
2053-03-16 Earth 42614.99 53,482,456 km
139 LD
2049-10-16 Earth 44311.42 31,129,816 km
81.0 LD
2049-04-15 Earth 36337.22 50,107,560 km
130 LD
2045-10-14 Earth 20312.37 7,989,338 km
20.8 LD
2045-05-23 Earth 21162.88 39,980,369 km
104 LD
2043-10-11 Venus 37306.66 10,552,328 km
27.5 LD
2041-12-18 Earth 20061.57 36,592,243 km
95.2 LD
2041-08-09 Earth 18630.84 6,110,864 km
15.9 LD
2038-03-17 Venus 19634.90 12,635,546 km
32.9 LD
2038-01-23 Earth 35480.30 47,414,889 km
123 LD
2037-07-30 Earth 37586.93 20,983,973 km
54.6 LD
2034-02-21 Earth 42151.80 52,467,248 km
136 LD
2033-08-06 Earth 60263.59 51,092,575 km
133 LD
2032-07-20 Venus 24818.60 14,635,705 km
38.1 LD
2030-10-09 Earth 66388.60 59,849,489 km
156 LD
2030-03-20 Earth 42250.26 53,246,942 km
139 LD
2026-12-09 next Venus 27344.02 3,741,790 km
9.73 LD
2026-10-17 today Earth 42636.38 29,282,896 km
76.2 LD
2026-04-18 Earth 35313.67 49,561,969 km
129 LD
2022-10-06 Earth 18063.17 9,517,667 km
24.8 LD
2022-06-04 Earth 15753.69 36,562,984 km
95.1 LD
2021-05-22 Venus 34880.92 3,607,791 km
9.39 LD
2018-12-26 Earth 23708.37 38,975,030 km
101 LD
2018-08-03 Earth 20506.03 2,623,725 km
6.83 LD
2015-01-18 Earth 33078.31 45,611,781 km
119 LD
2014-07-30 Earth 32693.56 14,319,904 km
37.3 LD
2013-08-17 Venus 33216.63 9,035,967 km
23.5 LD
2011-02-08 Earth 39528.74 50,333,389 km
131 LD
2010-08-02 Earth 48532.91 35,604,499 km
92.6 LD
2007-02-28 Earth 42589.60 52,789,326 km
137 LD
2006-08-08 Earth 65344.06 57,917,753 km
151 LD
2003-10-10 Earth 65427.85 58,606,372 km
152 LD
2003-03-21 Earth 41946.71 52,984,908 km
138 LD
2002-04-23 Venus 44164.33 12,218,795 km
31.8 LD
1999-10-16 Earth 48632.58 36,800,536 km
95.7 LD
1999-04-10 Earth 37890.15 50,903,867 km
132 LD
1995-10-20 Earth 32326.48 16,527,708 km
43.0 LD
1995-05-01 Earth 30557.65 46,310,261 km
120 LD
1991-10-13 Earth 19223.36 8,545,535 km
22.2 LD
1991-05-26 Earth 20130.76 39,056,845 km
102 LD
1988-10-15 Venus 31778.98 883,565 km
2.30 LD
1923-10-14 Earth 51552.83 39,640,561 km
103 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-12T15:27:37.865283+00:00.