← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived
Designation: 2018 RB1 · NASA id: 3827174
Estimated diameter: 7 – 16 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
2 kilotonnes – 76 kilotonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU
| Orbital period | 432.6 days (1.18 years) |
| Eccentricity | .2824089086606723 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | 1.119442629253268 AU |
| Inclination | 5.043809221549503° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .803302058017619 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.435583200488917 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.00191 AU = 285,702 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 166.849750458105° |
| Argument of perihelion | 266.7148399402624° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 332.3658819172601° / .8321494148986625°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 5.535 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2021-04-15 20:38:38 |
| Observed | 2018-09-06 to 2018-09-10 (4 day arc, 41 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 6 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 52 total.
It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 45 of them were approaches to Earth, 5 of them were approaches to Venus and 2 of them were approaches to Moon.
This one’s path runs from 0.803 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.436 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.
Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 432.6 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.
The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0019 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.
next approach: 2032-05-02
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2077-05-11 | Earth | 28776.81 | 61,540,179 km 160 LD |
| 2071-02-07 | Earth | 18592.21 | 18,502,104 km 48.1 LD |
| 2070-07-05 | Earth | 27151.77 | 58,161,086 km 151 LD |
| 2052-03-08 | Earth | 54166.70 | 34,862,999 km 90.7 LD |
| 2051-06-04 | Earth | 29878.39 | 64,933,090 km 169 LD |
| 2050-08-29 | Earth | 54359.99 | 35,788,774 km 93.1 LD |
| 2049-08-16 | Venus | 14457.22 | 15,219,245 km 39.6 LD |
| 2045-04-19 | Earth | 25427.18 | 52,070,733 km 135 LD |
| 2044-11-08 | Earth | 24793.45 | 27,431,890 km 71.4 LD |
| 2044-08-20 | Earth | 16981.21 | 35,982,285 km 93.6 LD |
| 2039-02-28 | Earth | 34428.18 | 7,199,931 km 18.7 LD |
| 2038-06-19 | Earth | 28999.25 | 62,999,535 km 164 LD |
| 2037-08-20 | Earth | 71989.05 | 60,856,680 km 158 LD |
| 2034-04-01 | Venus | 19982.50 | 18,947,609 km 49.3 LD |
| 2032-05-02 next | Earth | 27561.71 | 57,808,081 km 150 LD |
| 2026-02-24 | Earth | 28449.80 | 3,178,632 km 8.27 LD |
| 2025-06-25 | Earth | 28606.36 | 61,851,994 km 161 LD |
| 2024-08-17 | Earth | 79103.27 | 70,831,972 km 184 LD |
| 2020-03-20 | Earth | 80155.75 | 71,110,481 km 185 LD |
| 2019-05-13 | Earth | 28938.35 | 61,833,645 km 161 LD |
| 2018-09-12 | Moon | 31337.08 | 813,341 km 2.12 LD |
| 2018-09-11 | Earth | 29282.39 | 942,114 km 2.45 LD |
| 2013-03-07 | Earth | 46855.53 | 24,624,284 km 64.1 LD |
| 2012-06-06 | Earth | 29415.24 | 63,304,358 km 165 LD |
| 2011-08-30 | Earth | 51731.79 | 31,979,067 km 83.2 LD |
| 2006-02-23 | Earth | 24026.58 | 8,624,868 km 22.4 LD |
| 2005-12-10 | Venus | 13751.69 | 16,183,107 km 42.1 LD |
| 2005-06-27 | Earth | 28103.45 | 60,177,393 km 157 LD |
| 2004-08-19 | Earth | 74968.13 | 65,006,577 km 169 LD |
| 1999-04-05 | Earth | 21474.18 | 42,202,756 km 110 LD |
| 1998-12-13 | Earth | 26608.54 | 29,898,216 km 77.8 LD |
| 1998-07-24 | Earth | 23490.66 | 48,706,370 km 127 LD |
| 1992-05-05 | Earth | 27511.91 | 57,251,201 km 149 LD |
| 1991-10-04 | Earth | 19296.12 | 19,612,849 km 51.0 LD |
| 1986-03-14 | Earth | 60404.94 | 43,615,411 km 113 LD |
| 1985-05-26 | Earth | 29362.79 | 62,786,152 km 163 LD |
| 1984-09-05 | Earth | 39025.87 | 13,722,219 km 35.7 LD |
| 1979-03-01 | Earth | 33724.88 | 6,103,398 km 15.9 LD |
| 1978-06-17 | Earth | 28895.42 | 62,067,158 km 161 LD |
| 1977-08-24 | Earth | 63855.68 | 49,306,050 km 128 LD |
| 1972-01-30 | Earth | 19324.87 | 21,192,793 km 55.1 LD |
| 1971-07-05 | Earth | 26936.98 | 57,234,245 km 149 LD |
| 1968-06-01 | Venus | 14455.05 | 14,899,721 km 38.8 LD |
| 1965-04-09 | Earth | 22582.30 | 44,568,238 km 116 LD |
| 1964-12-06 | Earth | 26881.03 | 30,212,291 km 78.6 LD |
| 1964-07-27 | Earth | 22581.92 | 46,776,648 km 122 LD |
| 1958-05-02 | Earth | 26949.65 | 55,817,652 km 145 LD |
| 1952-03-16 | Earth | 67962.91 | 54,261,114 km 141 LD |
| 1951-05-19 | Earth | 28912.07 | 61,433,663 km 160 LD |
| 1950-09-10 | Moon | 29798.61 | 1,481,495 km 3.85 LD |
| 1950-09-10 | Earth | 30882.99 | 1,603,063 km 4.17 LD |
| 1928-06-06 | Venus | 15523.56 | 14,850,086 km 38.6 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T20:38:57.933318+00:00.