Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2018 VJ1)

Designation: 2018 VJ1 · NASA id: 3835972

Estimated diameter: 39 – 88 meters

≈ an airliner's wingspan
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 24.16) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 34.3 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

793 kilotonnes – 29.6 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: AMO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 1221 Amor
1.017 AU < q (perihelion) < 1.3 AU

Orbital period724.4 days (1.98 years)
Eccentricity.3256678137872562 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.578512634622791 AU
Inclination17.24589728469321° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance1.064441875869625 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance2.092583393375957 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.08472 AU = 12,673,393 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude217.0921531151293°
Argument of perihelion158.8757589483494°
Mean anomaly / motion209.2264115376047° / .4969720681540079°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant4.291 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2022-10-04 06:24:47
Observed2018-11-02 to 2022-10-04 (1432 day arc, 81 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 27 total.

next approach: 2028-09-30

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2143-10-01 Earth 54159.90 73,025,806 km
190 LD
2141-10-09 Earth 45572.01 57,084,342 km
149 LD
2139-10-16 Earth 39346.57 41,577,486 km
108 LD
2137-10-20 Earth 35919.16 26,771,160 km
69.6 LD
2135-10-25 Earth 35664.50 15,358,244 km
40.0 LD
2133-10-29 Earth 37945.40 13,694,450 km
35.6 LD
2131-11-02 Earth 42751.28 24,064,955 km
62.6 LD
2129-11-06 Earth 49444.48 38,250,462 km
99.5 LD
2127-11-11 Earth 57639.13 53,762,794 km
140 LD
2125-11-15 Earth 66818.91 69,978,986 km
182 LD
2028-09-30 next Earth 52419.02 70,606,507 km
184 LD
2026-10-09 Earth 43970.68 54,641,923 km
142 LD
2024-10-14 Earth 38253.05 38,977,421 km
101 LD
2022-10-20 Earth 35535.32 24,810,216 km
64.5 LD
2020-10-24 Earth 35831.56 14,250,353 km
37.1 LD
2018-10-28 Earth 38732.17 15,055,416 km
39.2 LD
2016-11-01 Earth 43874.96 26,182,893 km
68.1 LD
2014-11-05 Earth 50964.36 40,829,779 km
106 LD
2012-11-09 Earth 59451.30 56,658,855 km
147 LD
2010-11-14 Earth 68761.73 72,561,943 km
189 LD
1913-10-03 Earth 49771.56 67,121,739 km
175 LD
1911-10-10 Earth 42149.97 51,022,294 km
133 LD
1909-10-15 Earth 37184.26 36,034,620 km
93.7 LD
1907-10-21 Earth 35194.00 22,180,209 km
57.7 LD
1905-10-24 Earth 36236.47 13,201,011 km
34.3 LD
1903-10-29 Earth 39705.30 16,830,781 km
43.8 LD
1901-11-01 Earth 45410.60 29,342,762 km
76.3 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-10-03T13:12:50.576275+00:00.