← Back to current tracker · Insights · Impact risk · Lost asteroids · What arrived
Designation: 2018 YF2 · NASA id: 3837515
Estimated diameter: 180 – 402 meters
These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.
446.0 megatonnes – 16,621 megatonnes of TNT
This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.
The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.
Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.
Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU
| Orbital period | 299.3 days (0.82 years) |
| Eccentricity | .314654779902507 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated) |
| Semi-major axis | .8755936686595269 AU |
| Inclination | 48.66669877478964° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's) |
| Perihelion distance | .6000839355634349 AU (closest approach to the Sun) |
| Aphelion distance | 1.151103401755619 AU (farthest from the Sun) |
| Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance | 0.08876 AU = 13,278,801 km (closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing) |
| Ascending node longitude | 264.8715805441608° |
| Argument of perihelion | 328.3198739428329° |
| Mean anomaly / motion | 13.55173263295191° / 1.202957142376176°/day |
| Jupiter Tisserand invariant | 6.457 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets) |
| Reference epoch / equinox | JD 2461000.5 / J2000 |
| Orbit determined | 2024-02-10 06:14:05 |
| Observed | 2018-12-24 to 2023-12-20 (1822 day arc, 98 observations used) |
| Orbit uncertainty | 0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain) |
Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 123 total.
next approach: 2027-12-19
| Date | Passed near | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2200-12-20 | Earth | 87650.66 | 71,323,082 km 186 LD |
| 2196-12-19 | Earth | 87083.82 | 14,323,275 km 37.3 LD |
| 2196-06-17 | Earth | 115032.19 | 58,399,667 km 152 LD |
| 2191-12-21 | Earth | 84195.21 | 50,064,111 km 130 LD |
| 2191-07-19 | Earth | 119903.02 | 72,753,465 km 189 LD |
| 2187-12-17 | Earth | 94574.96 | 32,469,547 km 84.5 LD |
| 2187-06-03 | Earth | 114819.54 | 64,659,076 km 168 LD |
| 2182-12-21 | Earth | 83249.16 | 28,967,136 km 75.4 LD |
| 2182-07-05 | Earth | 116959.68 | 62,042,597 km 161 LD |
| 2178-12-13 | Earth | 105420.55 | 55,500,477 km 144 LD |
| 2173-12-20 | Earth | 85449.40 | 13,815,765 km 35.9 LD |
| 2173-06-22 | Earth | 115352.28 | 58,079,455 km 151 LD |
| 2168-12-20 | Earth | 85219.69 | 58,170,746 km 151 LD |
| 2164-12-17 | Earth | 90902.69 | 23,213,520 km 60.4 LD |
| 2164-06-09 | Earth | 114818.05 | 61,132,155 km 159 LD |
| 2159-12-21 | Earth | 83315.19 | 39,233,497 km 102 LD |
| 2159-07-12 | Earth | 118260.47 | 66,674,496 km 173 LD |
| 2155-12-15 | Earth | 99148.12 | 42,701,018 km 111 LD |
| 2155-05-28 | Earth | 114975.69 | 69,343,194 km 180 LD |
| 2150-12-20 | Earth | 83702.10 | 21,918,572 km 57.0 LD |
| 2150-06-30 | Earth | 116270.94 | 59,819,875 km 156 LD |
| 2146-12-11 | Earth | 108973.17 | 62,147,040 km 162 LD |
| 2145-12-19 | Earth | 87901.60 | 72,211,824 km 188 LD |
| 2141-12-19 | Earth | 86270.65 | 13,427,926 km 34.9 LD |
| 2141-06-19 | Earth | 115213.23 | 58,185,414 km 151 LD |
| 2136-12-20 | Earth | 85041.32 | 56,642,587 km 147 LD |
| 2132-12-17 | Earth | 90774.15 | 22,900,946 km 59.6 LD |
| 2132-06-09 | Earth | 114866.38 | 61,018,540 km 159 LD |
| 2127-12-21 | Earth | 83452.95 | 41,813,040 km 109 LD |
| 2127-07-14 | Earth | 118694.35 | 68,197,995 km 177 LD |
| 2123-12-16 | Earth | 96921.33 | 37,694,844 km 98.1 LD |
| 2123-05-31 | Earth | 114922.24 | 66,893,740 km 174 LD |
| 2118-12-21 | Earth | 83260.28 | 28,222,964 km 73.4 LD |
| 2118-07-04 | Earth | 116963.44 | 61,989,463 km 161 LD |
| 2114-12-13 | Earth | 103801.74 | 52,278,182 km 136 LD |
| 2114-05-22 | Earth | 115109.93 | 74,184,416 km 193 LD |
| 2109-12-20 | Earth | 84320.36 | 17,415,598 km 45.3 LD |
| 2109-06-26 | Earth | 115885.59 | 58,829,600 km 153 LD |
| 2105-12-10 | Earth | 110870.80 | 65,457,304 km 170 LD |
| 2104-12-19 | Earth | 87421.53 | 69,875,759 km 182 LD |
| 2100-12-19 | Earth | 86234.36 | 13,341,457 km 34.7 LD |
| 2100-06-19 | Earth | 115272.73 | 58,241,303 km 152 LD |
| 2095-12-19 | Earth | 85505.68 | 59,706,969 km 155 LD |
| 2091-12-18 | Earth | 88959.66 | 18,137,933 km 47.2 LD |
| 2091-06-12 | Earth | 114977.16 | 59,576,142 km 155 LD |
| 2086-12-19 | Earth | 84159.93 | 49,956,903 km 130 LD |
| 2086-07-18 | Earth | 120014.98 | 73,093,974 km 190 LD |
| 2082-12-16 | Earth | 92457.09 | 26,932,647 km 70.1 LD |
| 2082-06-05 | Earth | 114885.62 | 62,421,458 km 162 LD |
| 2077-12-19 | Earth | 83430.78 | 40,513,869 km 105 LD |
| 2077-07-11 | Earth | 118552.80 | 67,647,449 km 176 LD |
| 2073-12-14 | Earth | 96443.31 | 36,649,959 km 95.3 LD |
| 2073-05-30 | Earth | 114956.76 | 66,396,214 km 173 LD |
| 2068-12-19 | Earth | 83207.46 | 31,538,018 km 82.0 LD |
| 2068-07-05 | Earth | 117402.48 | 63,429,025 km 165 LD |
| 2064-12-12 | Earth | 100918.39 | 46,321,926 km 121 LD |
| 2064-05-24 | Earth | 115077.30 | 71,062,009 km 185 LD |
| 2059-12-19 | Earth | 83514.89 | 23,434,445 km 61.0 LD |
| 2059-06-30 | Earth | 116520.49 | 60,487,984 km 157 LD |
| 2055-12-11 | Earth | 105622.89 | 55,631,721 km 145 LD |
| 2050-12-19 | Earth | 84396.40 | 16,886,202 km 43.9 LD |
| 2050-06-25 | Earth | 115890.90 | 58,816,732 km 153 LD |
| 2046-12-09 | Earth | 110308.66 | 64,407,764 km 168 LD |
| 2045-12-17 | Earth | 87630.32 | 71,083,200 km 185 LD |
| 2041-12-18 | Earth | 85711.25 | 13,426,413 km 34.9 LD |
| 2041-06-20 | Earth | 115452.22 | 58,285,475 km 152 LD |
| 2037-12-07 | Earth | 115226.08 | 72,890,644 km 190 LD |
| 2036-12-18 | Earth | 86205.92 | 63,768,427 km 166 LD |
| 2032-12-17 | Earth | 87450.92 | 14,783,823 km 38.5 LD |
| 2032-06-14 | Earth | 115156.89 | 58,778,205 km 153 LD |
| 2027-12-19 next | Earth | 84905.80 | 56,045,958 km 146 LD |
| 2023-12-17 | Earth | 89960.20 | 20,586,530 km 53.6 LD |
| 2023-06-10 | Earth | 114976.76 | 60,423,281 km 157 LD |
| 2018-12-19 | Earth | 83890.57 | 47,560,537 km 124 LD |
| 2018-07-16 | Earth | 119626.44 | 71,529,770 km 186 LD |
| 2014-12-15 | Earth | 93362.57 | 29,176,615 km 75.9 LD |
| 2014-06-03 | Earth | 114942.78 | 63,430,022 km 165 LD |
| 2009-12-19 | Earth | 83295.39 | 38,298,181 km 99.6 LD |
| 2009-07-09 | Earth | 118233.80 | 66,418,824 km 173 LD |
| 2005-12-13 | Earth | 97649.49 | 39,312,147 km 102 LD |
| 2005-05-28 | Earth | 115027.29 | 67,852,865 km 177 LD |
| 2000-12-18 | Earth | 83242.68 | 28,616,817 km 74.4 LD |
| 2000-07-03 | Earth | 117066.01 | 62,177,404 km 162 LD |
| 1996-12-11 | Earth | 103014.38 | 50,484,140 km 131 LD |
| 1996-05-21 | Earth | 115165.17 | 73,494,548 km 191 LD |
| 1991-12-19 | Earth | 83945.23 | 19,349,129 km 50.3 LD |
| 1991-06-27 | Earth | 116106.82 | 59,312,171 km 154 LD |
| 1987-12-10 | Earth | 109208.67 | 62,285,195 km 162 LD |
| 1986-12-17 | Earth | 87860.73 | 72,601,639 km 189 LD |
| 1982-12-18 | Earth | 85681.38 | 13,519,072 km 35.2 LD |
| 1982-06-19 | Earth | 115455.33 | 58,331,018 km 152 LD |
| 1978-12-07 | Earth | 116248.65 | 74,648,784 km 194 LD |
| 1977-12-18 | Earth | 85789.17 | 61,866,009 km 161 LD |
| 1973-12-17 | Earth | 88556.35 | 17,137,055 km 44.6 LD |
| 1973-06-12 | Earth | 115057.04 | 59,516,613 km 155 LD |
| 1968-12-18 | Earth | 84133.48 | 49,971,152 km 130 LD |
| 1968-07-16 | Earth | 119930.02 | 72,732,225 km 189 LD |
| 1964-12-15 | Earth | 93019.37 | 28,475,571 km 74.1 LD |
| 1964-06-03 | Earth | 114953.73 | 63,370,906 km 165 LD |
| 1959-12-19 | Earth | 83179.55 | 36,837,541 km 95.8 LD |
| 1959-07-08 | Earth | 118010.33 | 65,517,387 km 170 LD |
| 1955-12-13 | Earth | 99426.38 | 43,087,166 km 112 LD |
| 1955-05-25 | Earth | 115083.48 | 69,888,554 km 182 LD |
| 1950-12-19 | Earth | 83498.21 | 23,293,879 km 60.6 LD |
| 1950-06-29 | Earth | 116453.97 | 60,276,137 km 157 LD |
| 1946-12-10 | Earth | 107485.98 | 59,166,465 km 154 LD |
| 1941-12-18 | Earth | 85577.03 | 13,725,843 km 35.7 LD |
| 1941-06-19 | Earth | 115463.16 | 58,349,565 km 152 LD |
| 1936-12-17 | Earth | 85465.24 | 60,121,017 km 156 LD |
| 1932-12-16 | Earth | 89691.47 | 20,069,209 km 52.2 LD |
| 1932-06-09 | Earth | 114991.94 | 60,497,740 km 157 LD |
| 1927-12-19 | Earth | 83544.24 | 44,029,454 km 115 LD |
| 1927-07-13 | Earth | 118941.25 | 69,061,379 km 180 LD |
| 1923-12-14 | Earth | 96516.61 | 36,779,375 km 95.7 LD |
| 1923-05-29 | Earth | 115032.57 | 67,057,259 km 174 LD |
| 1918-12-19 | Earth | 83235.14 | 27,025,639 km 70.3 LD |
| 1918-07-01 | Earth | 116818.29 | 61,372,054 km 160 LD |
| 1914-12-10 | Earth | 106013.94 | 56,339,122 km 147 LD |
| 1909-12-17 | Earth | 85382.75 | 13,998,552 km 36.4 LD |
| 1909-06-19 | Earth | 115490.77 | 58,366,649 km 152 LD |
| 1904-12-17 | Earth | 85248.24 | 59,190,688 km 154 LD |
| 1900-12-15 | Earth | 90523.23 | 22,161,005 km 57.7 LD |
| 1900-06-07 | Earth | 114992.32 | 61,280,991 km 159 LD |
Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T21:01:29.126936+00:00.