Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2018 YF2)

Designation: 2018 YF2 · NASA id: 3837515

Estimated diameter: 180 – 402 meters

≈ the Great Pyramid
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 20.85) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 34.7 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

446.0 megatonnes – 16,621 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: ATE — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 2062 Aten
a (semi-major axis) < 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) > 0.983 AU

Orbital period299.3 days (0.82 years)
Eccentricity.314654779902507 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis.8755936686595269 AU
Inclination48.66669877478964° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.6000839355634349 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.151103401755619 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.08876 AU = 13,278,801 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude264.8715805441608°
Argument of perihelion328.3198739428329°
Mean anomaly / motion13.55173263295191° / 1.202957142376176°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant6.457 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2024-02-10 06:14:05
Observed2018-12-24 to 2023-12-20 (1822 day arc, 98 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty0 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 123 total.

next approach: 2027-12-19

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2200-12-20 Earth 87650.66 71,323,082 km
186 LD
2196-12-19 Earth 87083.82 14,323,275 km
37.3 LD
2196-06-17 Earth 115032.19 58,399,667 km
152 LD
2191-12-21 Earth 84195.21 50,064,111 km
130 LD
2191-07-19 Earth 119903.02 72,753,465 km
189 LD
2187-12-17 Earth 94574.96 32,469,547 km
84.5 LD
2187-06-03 Earth 114819.54 64,659,076 km
168 LD
2182-12-21 Earth 83249.16 28,967,136 km
75.4 LD
2182-07-05 Earth 116959.68 62,042,597 km
161 LD
2178-12-13 Earth 105420.55 55,500,477 km
144 LD
2173-12-20 Earth 85449.40 13,815,765 km
35.9 LD
2173-06-22 Earth 115352.28 58,079,455 km
151 LD
2168-12-20 Earth 85219.69 58,170,746 km
151 LD
2164-12-17 Earth 90902.69 23,213,520 km
60.4 LD
2164-06-09 Earth 114818.05 61,132,155 km
159 LD
2159-12-21 Earth 83315.19 39,233,497 km
102 LD
2159-07-12 Earth 118260.47 66,674,496 km
173 LD
2155-12-15 Earth 99148.12 42,701,018 km
111 LD
2155-05-28 Earth 114975.69 69,343,194 km
180 LD
2150-12-20 Earth 83702.10 21,918,572 km
57.0 LD
2150-06-30 Earth 116270.94 59,819,875 km
156 LD
2146-12-11 Earth 108973.17 62,147,040 km
162 LD
2145-12-19 Earth 87901.60 72,211,824 km
188 LD
2141-12-19 Earth 86270.65 13,427,926 km
34.9 LD
2141-06-19 Earth 115213.23 58,185,414 km
151 LD
2136-12-20 Earth 85041.32 56,642,587 km
147 LD
2132-12-17 Earth 90774.15 22,900,946 km
59.6 LD
2132-06-09 Earth 114866.38 61,018,540 km
159 LD
2127-12-21 Earth 83452.95 41,813,040 km
109 LD
2127-07-14 Earth 118694.35 68,197,995 km
177 LD
2123-12-16 Earth 96921.33 37,694,844 km
98.1 LD
2123-05-31 Earth 114922.24 66,893,740 km
174 LD
2118-12-21 Earth 83260.28 28,222,964 km
73.4 LD
2118-07-04 Earth 116963.44 61,989,463 km
161 LD
2114-12-13 Earth 103801.74 52,278,182 km
136 LD
2114-05-22 Earth 115109.93 74,184,416 km
193 LD
2109-12-20 Earth 84320.36 17,415,598 km
45.3 LD
2109-06-26 Earth 115885.59 58,829,600 km
153 LD
2105-12-10 Earth 110870.80 65,457,304 km
170 LD
2104-12-19 Earth 87421.53 69,875,759 km
182 LD
2100-12-19 Earth 86234.36 13,341,457 km
34.7 LD
2100-06-19 Earth 115272.73 58,241,303 km
152 LD
2095-12-19 Earth 85505.68 59,706,969 km
155 LD
2091-12-18 Earth 88959.66 18,137,933 km
47.2 LD
2091-06-12 Earth 114977.16 59,576,142 km
155 LD
2086-12-19 Earth 84159.93 49,956,903 km
130 LD
2086-07-18 Earth 120014.98 73,093,974 km
190 LD
2082-12-16 Earth 92457.09 26,932,647 km
70.1 LD
2082-06-05 Earth 114885.62 62,421,458 km
162 LD
2077-12-19 Earth 83430.78 40,513,869 km
105 LD
2077-07-11 Earth 118552.80 67,647,449 km
176 LD
2073-12-14 Earth 96443.31 36,649,959 km
95.3 LD
2073-05-30 Earth 114956.76 66,396,214 km
173 LD
2068-12-19 Earth 83207.46 31,538,018 km
82.0 LD
2068-07-05 Earth 117402.48 63,429,025 km
165 LD
2064-12-12 Earth 100918.39 46,321,926 km
121 LD
2064-05-24 Earth 115077.30 71,062,009 km
185 LD
2059-12-19 Earth 83514.89 23,434,445 km
61.0 LD
2059-06-30 Earth 116520.49 60,487,984 km
157 LD
2055-12-11 Earth 105622.89 55,631,721 km
145 LD
2050-12-19 Earth 84396.40 16,886,202 km
43.9 LD
2050-06-25 Earth 115890.90 58,816,732 km
153 LD
2046-12-09 Earth 110308.66 64,407,764 km
168 LD
2045-12-17 Earth 87630.32 71,083,200 km
185 LD
2041-12-18 Earth 85711.25 13,426,413 km
34.9 LD
2041-06-20 Earth 115452.22 58,285,475 km
152 LD
2037-12-07 Earth 115226.08 72,890,644 km
190 LD
2036-12-18 Earth 86205.92 63,768,427 km
166 LD
2032-12-17 Earth 87450.92 14,783,823 km
38.5 LD
2032-06-14 Earth 115156.89 58,778,205 km
153 LD
2027-12-19 next Earth 84905.80 56,045,958 km
146 LD
2023-12-17 Earth 89960.20 20,586,530 km
53.6 LD
2023-06-10 Earth 114976.76 60,423,281 km
157 LD
2018-12-19 Earth 83890.57 47,560,537 km
124 LD
2018-07-16 Earth 119626.44 71,529,770 km
186 LD
2014-12-15 Earth 93362.57 29,176,615 km
75.9 LD
2014-06-03 Earth 114942.78 63,430,022 km
165 LD
2009-12-19 Earth 83295.39 38,298,181 km
99.6 LD
2009-07-09 Earth 118233.80 66,418,824 km
173 LD
2005-12-13 Earth 97649.49 39,312,147 km
102 LD
2005-05-28 Earth 115027.29 67,852,865 km
177 LD
2000-12-18 Earth 83242.68 28,616,817 km
74.4 LD
2000-07-03 Earth 117066.01 62,177,404 km
162 LD
1996-12-11 Earth 103014.38 50,484,140 km
131 LD
1996-05-21 Earth 115165.17 73,494,548 km
191 LD
1991-12-19 Earth 83945.23 19,349,129 km
50.3 LD
1991-06-27 Earth 116106.82 59,312,171 km
154 LD
1987-12-10 Earth 109208.67 62,285,195 km
162 LD
1986-12-17 Earth 87860.73 72,601,639 km
189 LD
1982-12-18 Earth 85681.38 13,519,072 km
35.2 LD
1982-06-19 Earth 115455.33 58,331,018 km
152 LD
1978-12-07 Earth 116248.65 74,648,784 km
194 LD
1977-12-18 Earth 85789.17 61,866,009 km
161 LD
1973-12-17 Earth 88556.35 17,137,055 km
44.6 LD
1973-06-12 Earth 115057.04 59,516,613 km
155 LD
1968-12-18 Earth 84133.48 49,971,152 km
130 LD
1968-07-16 Earth 119930.02 72,732,225 km
189 LD
1964-12-15 Earth 93019.37 28,475,571 km
74.1 LD
1964-06-03 Earth 114953.73 63,370,906 km
165 LD
1959-12-19 Earth 83179.55 36,837,541 km
95.8 LD
1959-07-08 Earth 118010.33 65,517,387 km
170 LD
1955-12-13 Earth 99426.38 43,087,166 km
112 LD
1955-05-25 Earth 115083.48 69,888,554 km
182 LD
1950-12-19 Earth 83498.21 23,293,879 km
60.6 LD
1950-06-29 Earth 116453.97 60,276,137 km
157 LD
1946-12-10 Earth 107485.98 59,166,465 km
154 LD
1941-12-18 Earth 85577.03 13,725,843 km
35.7 LD
1941-06-19 Earth 115463.16 58,349,565 km
152 LD
1936-12-17 Earth 85465.24 60,121,017 km
156 LD
1932-12-16 Earth 89691.47 20,069,209 km
52.2 LD
1932-06-09 Earth 114991.94 60,497,740 km
157 LD
1927-12-19 Earth 83544.24 44,029,454 km
115 LD
1927-07-13 Earth 118941.25 69,061,379 km
180 LD
1923-12-14 Earth 96516.61 36,779,375 km
95.7 LD
1923-05-29 Earth 115032.57 67,057,259 km
174 LD
1918-12-19 Earth 83235.14 27,025,639 km
70.3 LD
1918-07-01 Earth 116818.29 61,372,054 km
160 LD
1914-12-10 Earth 106013.94 56,339,122 km
147 LD
1909-12-17 Earth 85382.75 13,998,552 km
36.4 LD
1909-06-19 Earth 115490.77 58,366,649 km
152 LD
1904-12-17 Earth 85248.24 59,190,688 km
154 LD
1900-12-15 Earth 90523.23 22,161,005 km
57.7 LD
1900-06-07 Earth 114992.32 61,280,991 km
159 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-04T21:01:29.126936+00:00.