Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2019 AF3)

Designation: 2019 AF3 · NASA id: 3837604

Estimated diameter: 51 – 113 meters

≈ a football pitch
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 23.6) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
No identified impact threat
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 41.1 lunar distances.
  • It is not on NASA/JPL’s Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance of impact above zero. Most objects are not on it.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

489 kilotonnes – 18.2 megatonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: AMO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits similar to that of 1221 Amor
1.017 AU < q (perihelion) < 1.3 AU

Orbital period623.6 days (1.71 years)
Eccentricity.2382182541134569 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.428477636531963 AU
Inclination11.1398901995596° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance1.088188187917202 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.768767085146725 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.10467 AU = 15,658,260 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude304.4507529944615°
Argument of perihelion172.6225854412848°
Mean anomaly / motion2.624178598219691° / .5772898282302503°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant4.641 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 20:58:33
Observed2019-01-04 to 2019-04-01 (87 day arc, 76 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty5 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 29 total.

next approach: 2031-02-06

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2200-01-31 Earth 27145.99 38,896,878 km
101 LD
2188-01-24 Earth 23125.28 18,273,843 km
47.5 LD
2159-01-25 Earth 22441.45 17,214,917 km
44.8 LD
2147-01-19 Earth 30383.84 41,693,609 km
108 LD
2142-04-11 Earth 14781.98 68,850,068 km
179 LD
2134-10-22 Earth 18451.57 72,142,155 km
188 LD
2130-01-28 Earth 25800.61 33,485,058 km
87.1 LD
2118-01-22 Earth 24087.73 21,682,889 km
56.4 LD
2105-11-12 Earth 11345.91 62,226,139 km
162 LD
2089-01-23 Earth 22309.82 15,961,213 km
41.5 LD
2077-01-16 Earth 32013.23 46,892,611 km
122 LD
2072-04-02 Earth 13654.59 65,892,238 km
171 LD
2064-10-15 Earth 20236.85 74,422,767 km
194 LD
2060-01-26 Earth 24432.95 27,943,182 km
72.7 LD
2048-01-21 Earth 25628.59 26,473,950 km
68.9 LD
2035-11-03 Earth 13247.85 65,070,890 km
169 LD
2031-02-06 next Earth 26952.16 47,888,271 km
125 LD
2019-01-22 Earth 22423.04 15,813,604 km
41.1 LD
2007-01-13 Earth 33255.98 52,164,051 km
136 LD
2002-03-24 Earth 13444.56 62,485,935 km
163 LD
1990-01-24 Earth 23229.39 22,573,201 km
58.7 LD
1978-01-20 Earth 27706.07 32,363,093 km
84.2 LD
1973-04-17 Earth 17328.53 73,561,182 km
191 LD
1965-10-27 Earth 15488.91 67,819,333 km
176 LD
1961-01-31 Earth 27029.02 42,665,040 km
111 LD
1949-01-21 Earth 22805.39 16,778,991 km
43.6 LD
1920-01-23 Earth 22546.84 18,863,851 km
49.1 LD
1908-01-19 Earth 29766.28 38,002,929 km
98.9 LD
1903-04-11 Earth 15849.87 70,799,328 km
184 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-08T13:11:19.120328+00:00.