Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2019 BX1)

Designation: 2019 BX1 · NASA id: 3838016 · Sentry Object

Estimated diameter: 6 – 14 meters

≈ a city bus
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 28.15) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
On a monitored risk list
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 1.2 lunar distances.
  • It is on the Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance above zero — 2,207 of them. Being listed is not by itself a warning.
  • The computed chance is about 1 in 263,097, over the window 2067–2120.
  • Palermo -7.23 — below zero, meaning less than the background risk from everything not yet found.
  • Torino 0.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

938 tonnes – 35 kilotonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period521.7 days (1.43 years)
Eccentricity.2315141736654341 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.268320200870139 AU
Inclination3.086532496515212° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.9746860976225111 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.561954304117766 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00291 AU = 434,960 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude111.3389454205965°
Argument of perihelion337.8126057056072°
Mean anomaly / motion301.8707240148137° / .6900184598689394°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.062 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-04-15 21:03:32
Observed2019-01-09 to 2019-02-05 (27 day arc, 26 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty5 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 18 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Moon and Mars? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 15 of them were approaches to Earth, 2 of them were approaches to Moon and 1 of them were approaches to Mars.

This one’s path runs from 0.975 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.562 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 521.7 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0029 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2029-01-08

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2029-01-08 next Moon 17408.17 546,395 km
1.42 LD
2029-01-08 next Earth 14748.59 445,276 km
1.16 LD
2024-04-22 Mars 23136.86 6,778,719 km
17.6 LD
2019-01-08 Earth 14506.91 535,987 km
1.39 LD
2019-01-07 Moon 16733.21 709,921 km
1.85 LD
2015-08-05 Earth 26468.17 71,735,045 km
187 LD
2005-11-11 Earth 21156.62 11,741,081 km
30.5 LD
2003-02-22 Earth 65264.77 70,253,474 km
183 LD
2002-08-20 Earth 22939.50 63,340,779 km
165 LD
1993-04-09 Earth 20232.61 57,675,834 km
150 LD
1992-10-19 Earth 54089.28 55,297,475 km
144 LD
1990-02-04 Earth 32617.05 24,908,413 km
64.8 LD
1989-09-26 Earth 11438.48 41,758,699 km
109 LD
1980-05-02 Earth 26171.73 71,318,295 km
186 LD
1976-12-02 Earth 13765.99 4,495,971 km
11.7 LD
1973-08-17 Earth 23750.61 65,397,180 km
170 LD
1964-04-19 Earth 23304.16 64,514,548 km
168 LD
1963-10-14 Earth 66129.97 72,017,084 km
187 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-05T13:37:45.850190+00:00.