Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

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(2020 CW)

Designation: 2020 CW · NASA id: 3989456 · Sentry Object

Estimated diameter: 1 – 2 meters

≈ a car
That comparison is of size only — what an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, none of which follows from width.
(absolute magnitude H = 32.56) · JPL Small-Body Database →

Earth impact concern
On a monitored risk list
Why?
  • Its closest recorded pass was 0.0 lunar distances.
  • It is on the Sentry list, which holds every object with a computed chance above zero — 2,207 of them. Being listed is not by itself a warning.
  • The computed chance is about 1 in 462,896, over the window 2046–2077.
  • Palermo -8.69 — below zero, meaning less than the background risk from everything not yet found.
  • Torino 0.
What the four levels mean
  • No identified impact threat — not on any risk list. 98.8% of the objects here.
  • On a monitored risk list — a computed chance above zero, however small. 1.2% of the objects here.
  • Among the highest-ranked — Palermo at or above −2. Two objects worldwide qualify, both studied for decades and both centuries away.
  • Exceptional — Torino 1 or more, or Palermo at or above zero. No object anywhere currently qualifies.

These describe where an object sits in a catalogue, not how dangerous it is. The full ranked list is on the impact risk page.

Energy of motion, if it ever entered the atmosphere

18 tonnes – 669 tonnes of TNT

This is not a forecast. Nothing here says this object will arrive, and almost nothing ever does — what is actually assessed, by people with far better data than this page has, is on the impact risk page. This is simply the kinetic energy such a body would carry, worked out from its size and its usual encounter speed.

The range spans a factor of 37, and it cannot be narrowed. Nobody has weighed this object. Its diameter is inferred from how bright it is under an assumed reflectivity, which carries a fixed factor of 2.24 — and because mass goes as the cube of diameter, that alone becomes a factor of 11. Density is then assumed somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 kg/m³, from a loose rubble pile to dense rock. Quoting a tighter figure would be invented precision.

Megatonnes do not mean what the word suggests here. Most of this energy is spent high in the atmosphere, not on the ground, and the comparison with weapons misleads badly. The Chelyabinsk body released around 440 kilotonnes in 2013 — this same calculation gives it 166 to 904 — and the damage was broken windows across a city, from the shock wave of an airburst some thirty kilometres up. No crater, and nothing that reached the ground intact.

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Orbital Data

Orbit class: APO — Near-Earth asteroid orbits which cross the Earth’s orbit similar to that of 1862 Apollo
a (semi-major axis) > 1.0 AU; q (perihelion) < 1.017 AU

Orbital period411.2 days (1.13 years)
Eccentricity.6079856836882127 (0 = circular, closer to 1 = more elongated)
Semi-major axis1.0822210128906 AU
Inclination5.934615372731588° (tilt of its orbit vs. Earth's)
Perihelion distance.4242461304665585 AU (closest approach to the Sun)
Aphelion distance1.740195895314641 AU (farthest from the Sun)
Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance0.00006 AU = 8,850 km
(closest its orbit path ever comes to Earth's, regardless of timing)
Ascending node longitude131.7869288962026°
Argument of perihelion120.4548714273839°
Mean anomaly / motion8.015552159348799° / .8754475480595145°/day
Jupiter Tisserand invariant5.528 (helps distinguish asteroids from comets)
Reference epoch / equinoxJD 2461000.5 / J2000
Orbit determined2021-10-22 05:49:01
Observed2020-02-01 to 2020-02-01 (None day arc, 12 observations used)
Orbit uncertainty7 (0 = best known, 9 = least certain)

Close Approach History

Every close approach NASA has on record for this object — 64 total.

Why does it pass Earth, Venus, Merc, Mars and Moon? Doesn’t it orbit just one?

It orbits the Sun. Not Earth, and not Venus. The column above does not say what the asteroid goes around — it says which planet a given close approach was to. 46 of them were approaches to Earth, 9 of them were approaches to Venus, 4 of them were approaches to Merc, 4 of them were approaches to Mars and 1 of them were approaches to Moon.

This one’s path runs from 0.424 AU at its closest to the Sun out to 1.740 AU at its farthest. For scale, Venus orbits at about 0.72 AU and Earth at 1.00 AU — so an orbit spanning that range crosses the path of every planet in between, once on the way out and once on the way back.

Crossing a planet’s path is not the same as meeting the planet. Almost every time the asteroid crosses, that planet is somewhere else along its own orbit. A close approach is logged only on the rare occasions when both happen to arrive at the crossing point at roughly the same time — which is why the dates below are scattered rather than regular. This object takes 411.2 days to go round, against Earth’s 365.25, so the two drift in and out of step over years rather than repeating on a neat cycle.

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance in the table above (0.0001 AU) is the closest the two paths ever come. The miss distances below are how far apart the two bodies actually were on the day, which is almost always very much larger.

next approach: 2029-02-02

Date Passed near Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
2120-10-06 Earth 67317.23 15,250,849 km
39.7 LD
2120-07-12 Venus 96471.23 14,317,260 km
37.2 LD
2117-02-01 Earth 74259.64 2,808,087 km
7.31 LD
2111-10-03 Earth 57226.65 25,160,257 km
65.5 LD
2108-01-27 Earth 90369.88 24,509,195 km
63.8 LD
2106-12-31 Venus 91318.23 9,983,780 km
26.0 LD
2105-12-06 Merc 117395.99 14,534,876 km
37.8 LD
2103-10-27 Earth 123548.58 69,129,630 km
180 LD
2102-10-04 Earth 43736.26 48,650,185 km
127 LD
2100-03-25 Earth 50559.41 65,917,799 km
171 LD
2100-03-23 Venus 99221.51 16,719,202 km
43.5 LD
2100-01-25 Earth 46054.01 61,724,660 km
161 LD
2099-01-18 Earth 111559.07 51,990,094 km
135 LD
2094-10-18 Earth 101930.00 42,362,385 km
110 LD
2093-10-18 Earth 46300.39 71,487,486 km
186 LD
2091-02-06 Earth 49175.10 35,455,064 km
92.2 LD
2085-10-09 Earth 80437.87 17,913,146 km
46.6 LD
2082-02-03 Earth 67304.25 6,848,988 km
17.8 LD
2076-10-03 Earth 62979.88 18,711,944 km
48.7 LD
2073-01-28 Earth 83676.57 15,520,149 km
40.4 LD
2071-01-17 Venus 98978.41 16,633,907 km
43.3 LD
2067-10-01 Earth 47954.68 38,373,858 km
99.8 LD
2065-04-05 Earth 63777.27 72,292,459 km
188 LD
2065-01-19 Earth 47801.79 70,538,076 km
184 LD
2064-04-11 Venus 96010.67 14,092,668 km
36.7 LD
2064-01-22 Earth 101550.42 39,181,824 km
102 LD
2059-10-22 Earth 114102.58 57,490,839 km
150 LD
2058-10-09 Earth 43607.95 58,787,462 km
153 LD
2057-07-05 Venus 94089.82 12,437,962 km
32.4 LD
2055-01-15 Earth 118198.80 60,420,616 km
157 LD
2050-10-16 Earth 98796.07 38,521,221 km
100 LD
2047-02-05 Earth 48989.95 35,716,307 km
92.9 LD
2038-02-05 Earth 58376.77 19,839,836 km
51.6 LD
2032-10-07 Earth 76212.81 14,735,493 km
38.3 LD
2029-02-02 next Earth 66977.96 7,361,467 km
19.2 LD
2025-10-12 Venus 103891.69 20,641,098 km
53.7 LD
2023-10-05 Earth 69659.31 13,941,392 km
36.3 LD
2020-03-28 Merc 69568.36 11,455,283 km
29.8 LD
2020-02-01 Moon 76022.02 387,997 km
1.01 LD
2020-02-01 Earth 76621.48 15,702 km
0.04 LD — closer than the Moon
2017-09-23 Earth 41425.37 73,471,714 km
191 LD
2017-07-18 Earth 61922.07 66,696,627 km
174 LD
2010-10-02 Earth 107193.12 47,748,210 km
124 LD
2009-07-02 Mars 55148.56 8,884,241 km
23.1 LD
2009-02-04 Earth 61672.04 14,579,085 km
37.9 LD
1991-01-26 Mars 54144.67 10,774,627 km
28.0 LD
1987-02-10 Earth 40427.80 46,397,536 km
121 LD
1973-09-13 Earth 63158.78 13,325,210 km
34.7 LD
1972-01-18 Earth 107306.72 46,955,103 km
122 LD
1967-12-23 Venus 69280.70 6,621,232 km
17.2 LD
1965-04-26 Merc 59910.07 6,453,549 km
16.8 LD
1965-04-04 Earth 65376.73 67,418,949 km
175 LD
1962-09-18 Earth 73674.46 4,256,980 km
11.1 LD
1961-01-22 Earth 94893.64 30,672,969 km
79.8 LD
1958-09-19 Mars 51983.82 3,921,557 km
10.2 LD
1940-09-30 Earth 105775.15 45,774,400 km
119 LD
1940-04-15 Mars 53957.67 10,832,595 km
28.2 LD
1939-02-04 Earth 62163.72 13,901,480 km
36.2 LD
1936-09-13 Earth 38085.61 59,962,643 km
156 LD
1933-10-01 Merc 62052.08 4,758,638 km
12.4 LD
1932-04-21 Venus 60212.69 13,590,189 km
35.4 LD
1929-10-07 Earth 122753.12 67,831,296 km
176 LD
1928-02-10 Earth 45189.20 38,427,942 km
100.0 LD
1925-09-07 Earth 47600.26 35,460,884 km
92.2 LD

Looked up from NASA's NeoWs API and cached — last refreshed 2026-09-02T13:12:51.450728+00:00.