Machine Learning Enabled Thermosphere Advanced by HASDM (META-HASDM)

This project, titled Machine learning Enabled Thermosphere Advanced by HASDM (META-HASDM), will provide publicly, for the first time, the operationally derived SET HASDM database as a national benchmark for improving thermospheric density forecasting for LEO satellites. To aid rapid, public access we will develop machine learning (ML) algorithms to characterize the terabyte-sized two-solar cycle SET HASDM database by using JB2008 indices and other physical drivers; this algorithm is called HASDM-ML. The HASDM-ML algorithm will be validated against a subset of the SET HASDM database. In addition, the team will use HASDM-ML densities with Two-Line Elements (TLEs) of a few representative satellites to create more accurate ballistic coefficients, B*, for a few satellites in a historic atmosphere under known solar irradiance and geomagnetic conditions. The uncertainty will be quantified for density and for forecast satellite drag. We will extend orbit estimates to current and near-term epochs to improve orbit forecasting relevant to LEO space traffic management by using the new B* values. Finally, we will improve JB2008 indices’ forecast over the next 72 hours using ML techniques; this will be complemented by the capture of high speed streams (HSS) not currently represented for the Dst geomagnetic index as well as by extending forecast accuracy out to 7 days using the existing ADAPT model values for F10 and S10.

The existing SET support of the U.S. Space Force's HASDM leads to regular conjunction assessment for NASA high value vehicles. The ISS is moved approximately once per month to avoid higher collision probabilities with debris based on our forecasts and this occurs with other NASA assets in space. The NASA CARA community, which provides NASA with expertise in avoiding collisions with NASA space vehicles, will be a direct beneficiary of the progress we make on the goals and deliverables in the META-HASDM project.

There are three major groups in the LEO space community that will benefit from our success in META-HASDM. These include: i) the Department of Commerce (space traffic management); ii) the U.S. Space Force at Vandenberg AFB; and iii) commercial aerospace (SpaceX and OneWeb as well as existing international partners in Brazil, Germany, and Japan). We continue ongoing discussions with these groups.

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