Keyhole-Based Impact Site Selection and Post-Deflection Impact Risk Assessment for Near-Earth Objects

Asteroids in near-Earth space routinely cross Earth’s orbit. With most of the potentially hazardous asteroids still undiscovered, planetary defense programs are following a two-pronged approach — improving asteroid discovery and characterization on one hand and developing strategies that allow for successful deflection of a potentially impacting Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) on the other. However, pushing an asteroid on a collision course with Earth “out of the way” is not as straightforward as it sounds. The deflection techniques that are deemed technically feasible today come with substantial uncertainties. For kinetic impactors, spacecraft that crash into asteroids to affect a change in their orbit through transfer of momentum, these uncertainties are due to the additional momentum imparted onto the target NEO by the surface material ejected during the deflection event. These uncertainties in a deflection mission’s outcome can lead the NEO through a gravitational keyhole when passing by Earth, which would ensure that the NEO returns in the future on collision course. In order to better understand kinetic impact based asteroid deflection NASA is launching the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in November 2021. The DART mission aims to change the 65803 Didymos binary asteroid system’s mutual orbit. DART will also slightly change the orbit of Didymos around the sun. The proposed work aims to extend the effectiveness of future DART-like missions by a) using post-impact observational data to constrain the momentum transport in and out of the Didymos system, b) using this information to understand the heliocentric orbit changes to a deflected asteroid, and c) formulating a method to select the impact site such that a deflected NEO does not pass through a keyhole after the impact. The results of this work will significantly advance humanity’s capabilities to avert Earth-impacting NEOs by ensuring that they are deflected away from the Earth – permanently.

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