An Extensible Tool for Estimating Space Weather Benchmarks

Building on the work performed to develop XB (eXtreme Benchmarks), a comprehensive tool for estimating likelihood of occurrence of extreme space weather (and other) events, this follow-on effort will focus on coupling probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena with event-based forecasts, and, specifically, the prediction of solar energetic particles (SEPs), allowing users to make forecasts over a broad range of temporal horizons. Current SEP predictions are hindered by the limited spatial coverage of observed events (typically only one or two spacecraft capture a specific event). By coupling the results of the SPE Threat Assessment Tool (STAT) for a variety of CME inputs with specific observations of events, as well as selected hypothetical cases that explore reasonable ranges in parameter space, we can infer the likely spatial distribution of particle fluxes at various locations in the heliosphere, as well as their variation in time. XB would then allow us to estimate benchmark statistics as a function of location, as well as provide multi-variate estimates for events that exceed more than one extreme threshold. Statistical forecasts, based on historical datasets, will also be included within the ensemble. Additionally, we will leverage work being performed under complementary but distinct efforts, including O2R and Strategic Capabilities programs. Practical deliveries of the proposed work to the CCMC would include: (1) Additional CME/SEP events being incorporated into a database of modeled Solar Proton Events (SPEs); (2) An update to the STAT interface currently at the CCMC allowing CCMC personnel, and, potentially end-users, to make parametric studies of events; (3) Assistance in helping CCMC personnel to install and test STAT on a CCMC AWS instance; and (4) an improved SEP prediction tool, incorporating both probabilistic and event-based estimates of proton fluxes, which would be delivered to the CCMC as a proof of concept, real-time framework.

Our tool would be valuable to a variety of NASA groups, and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at GSFC and the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, in particular. XB would complement models already in place, by adding a new and unique capability of forecasting SEP fluxes over multiple temporal horizons. More generally, XB would be useful wherever time series data are collected and analyzed, which would include many groups, such as at GSFC, JSC, ARC, JPL, and LaRC.

NOAA/SWPC collect time series data from a fleet of satellites, with a particular emphasis on forecasting space weather. The tool we will develop would complement their current capabilities, allowing them to make probabilistic forecasts of SEP fluxes over multiple temporal horizons. More generally, we anticipate that it would be invaluable to a variety of stakeholders in the space industry.

This is a mature technology (TRL 7) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

None of these are guaranteed paths for this specific project — TechPort itself doesn't have an "apply" button. Reaching out to the contact(s) above with a specific question is usually the fastest way to find out what's actually open.