Development of a Dynamic Lightning Safety Algorithm for MSFC

The goal of this project is to use multiple remote sensing datasets (satellite, lightning, radar) and machine learning techniques to identify when clouds can no longer support lightning. The current need is that lightning warning practices (remain in shelter for 30 minutes since the last lightning flash) overwarn on lightning threat because a second lightning flash only occurs 3.5% of the time in the 20-30 minute time frame in the 30 minute stand down period. Development of a dynamic lightning warning algorithm will MSFC’s outdoor and test stand personnel to return to work sooner, without compromising their safety in the times in which infrequent lightning flashes impact MSFC. Conservative estimates indicate that the Center could save upwards of 1 million dollars due to lost time from the perceived threat of lightning if the proposed work could develop a reliable algorithm to end the stand down period 10 minutes or more ahead of the standard 30 minute rule used by MSFC's EOC and the National Weather Service. This work is innovative because its overarching goal is to shift lightning safety standards from hard rules (30 minutes since last flash) to a dynamic algorithm that identifies exactly when the threat of lightning has ceased (mitigating over warning, and reducing down time). This algorithm applies new technology and capabilities of the first lightning detectors in geostationary orbit from the MSFC conceived Geostationary Lightning Mapper which became fully operational in 2018. The innovation is also in the utilization of data synthesis techniques which merge multiple observations to a single, physically based evaluation to the real-time threat of lightning for MSFC. As far as the authors are aware, this is the only project focused on moving away from a hard and fast 30 minute rule to a dynamic algorithm that adjusts the down time based on the observational information to minimize down time from lightning events. Private sector “competitors” (Baron, Accuweather, WSI, the Weather Company, etc.) have yet to incorporate the GLM into their work flows because they have not realized the unique abilities of the GLM instrument to their lightning and thunderstorm applications. Thus, this dynamic lightning safety algorithm would have the potential for patent, SBIR, STTR, or possibilities of a CAN with private sector companies listed above and other companies in our area that employ meteorologists and have meteorological applications for various NASA, DoD, or FBI related work (e.g., Boeing, CFD Research, Dynetics, I3, Jacobs).

This technology ultimately will save the Center cost due to lost time from unnecessary downtime from a perceived lightning threat, and if successful provides additional information and down the road, tools to the EOC and test areas to make the best informed decision possible on the threat for lightning. Conservative estimates have this on the order of a million dollars/year

This is a mature technology (TRL 7+) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

None of these are guaranteed paths for this specific project — TechPort itself doesn't have an "apply" button. Reaching out to the contact(s) above with a specific question is usually the fastest way to find out what's actually open.