Space Weather Forecasting Toolset to Support Operations

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and associated solar particle events (SPEs) can damage critical space-based and terrestrial infrastructure. Operators of such systems have a compelling need for a capability to forecast major space weather storms and potential effects towards risk mitigation. Currently available tools are research-oriented and may not be suitable for operational use. CFD Research and the University of Alabama in Huntsville developed a novel Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) toolset by enhancing and integrating existing research codes into a software product for situational assessment and decision making related to space operations. Key technology features and innovations include: (1) efficient coupling between component codes that describe background solar wind, SPE-induced shock propagation, particle energization, and transport of solar energetic particles; (2) modularity via standardized interfaces for data exchange; (3) improved numerical algorithms and physics models of component codes (4) validated and applied for creating database and integration with third-party tools for operational use. During Phase IIE, we will further improve RISCS toolset by adapting some components for GPU-accelerated computing, develop kinetic solver for electrons, and compare grid-based solver for SEP with currently used stochastic solver.

This topic directly addresses NASA’s R2O/O2R responsibilities outlined in the NSWAP, specifically their goal to understand the Sun and its interactions with Earth, including space weather. It also supports NASA SMD’s goal to coordinate efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events, and is aligned with Technology Roadmap TA-11 (11.2.0 on Modeling). The developed RISCS toolkit will support mission operations by using measured SPE characteristics to forecast downstream effects and implement mitigation solutions. A predictive capability for SPE-induced radiation and resulting operational effects can help mission/equipment managers schedule tasks and adopt risk mitigation strategies. Directly relevant to DoD agencies and commercial entities with space-based or high-altitude assets (e.g., satellites), commercial aviation, navigation/GPS, radio communications, utilities/power transmission, oil pipelines.

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