Wildfire Mitigation through Explainable Risk Predictions

The proposed innovation is build upon and improve the wildfire explanation and mitigation prediction capabilities developed in Phase I of this contract. Mitigations are actions like clearing defensible space around buildings or installing fire-resistant vents. Explanations describe the relative importance of each input to the wildfire prediction model, or feature, to the overall wildfire risk; we refer to these explanations as feature contributions. Feature contributions will be used to create localized mitigation guidance that will support more optimal resource allocation and better decision-making during pre-wildfire planning for the insurance industry and the public. In Phase II, we intend to build a more rigorous, machine-learning model to predict mitigation effectiveness. We will also expand the explainability of our model with better machine-generated narratives and risk visualizations in the Terrafuse web-based application and API. We will explore trend analysis as a way of explaining changes in risk caused by significant events. We will aid commercialization by making it easier to integrate our data into third-party platforms. Finally, we will replace NASA MODIS data set, which is nearing end-of-life, with NASA VIIRS data.

This innovation makes extensive use of NASA data sets, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the NASA Global Fire Atlas. As such, it is a show case for how NASA's space-based observing programs make a difference on Earth. This innovation is targeted at the insurance industry: society's first line of defense for coping with wildfire damage. The insurance industry does not know how community and property-level mitigation affects wildfire risk. This innovation will provide location-specific guidance on which mitigating actions will be most effective.

This is early/mid-stage (TRL 4) — the most realistic path in is NASA SBIR/STTR, which funds small businesses and research institutions to develop technology aligned with NASA's needs (equity-free, phased funding). Check whether a current SBIR/STTR solicitation topic overlaps with this project's technology area, or contact the project directly (above) to ask.

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