Satellite-guided hydro-economic analysis for integrated management and prediction of the impact of droughts on agricultural regions

The management of water resources among competing uses presents a complex technical and policy challenge that is amplified by economic and population growth, and climate change. With current water sources across the western U.S. under increasing pressure or fully committed, future water management options will shift from developing new water supplies to improving management of existing resources. Integrated hydro-economic models capable of simulating the hydrologic system in irrigated and non-irrigated regions and the response of water users, especially farmers, to hydrologic constraints and economic and policy incentives, provide a framework to understand biophysical and socioeconomic implications of changing water availability. Satellite earth observations provide critical information to advance understanding of the hydrologic cycle and the water supply system. Unfortunately, satellite-based methods to forecast agricultural water demands in response to variation in water supplies have been limited by a lack of calibrated models that can anticipate human behavior, particularly how farmers allocate land and water. In this proposal we provide solutions to these limitations and contribute to improving the socioeconomic dimensions of the NASA Earth Sciences Program by developing transformative decision support tools that integrate the effects of climate and farmer adaptive behavior in the study of regional water supply and demand systems. We will implement an integrated hydro-economic model of agricultural production driven by ground observations, multi-sensor satellite observations, outputs from regional climate models, and socioeconomic data. Our modeling approach overcomes the limitations of current decision support systems for agricultural water management, and provides policymakers and natural resource managers with satellite data-driven, state-wide, operational models capable of anticipating how farmers allocate water, land, and other resources when confronted with new climate, policy rules, or market signals. It also quantifies how farming decisions affect agricultural water demands, the water supply system, and other water users. The backbone of our method is an economic model of agricultural production adapted to ingest satellite-based remote sensing estimates of crop acreage, yield and evapotranspiration in a continuous, operational manner. Biophysical constraints to production (e.g. water available for irrigation, precipitation, energy) are provided by an integrated hydrologic model and by regional and global climate datasets. We will apply these methods to quantify drought related impacts on agricultural practices and socioeconomic behavior across cropland areas in Montana, which are representative of the intermountain west. Although we will initially focus in this area, the developed methods are flexible and extendable to other agricultural regions. Our proposal responds to the current NASA EPSCoR solicitation by making innovative use of NASA Earth science data and models to develop improved water management strategies that promote a secure and sustainable use of water supplies for agriculture in Montana. It will also establish a statewide cluster of researchers that will develop capacity from other NASA programs, and from other federal and state agencies, and regional stakeholders. Maximal NASA EPSCoR impact in Montana will be achieved by leveraging the outreach capacity developed by other EPSCoR initiatives such as the Montana Institute on Ecosystems and by the Montana Water Center to transfer research products to end users, and to provide science-based solutions to the challenges faced by water managers in the state of Montana.

This is a mature technology (TRL 7+) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

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